I’m not sure if it’s being a Devil’s Advocate or if I’ve just got too much Reynolds Wrap on the noggin this week, but Natasha’s article on peak oil and a review of A Crude Awakening over at Crooks and Liars got me thinking last night.

Does “Peak Oil Theory” explain the Bush Administration’s position on Iraq?
Really, think about it.

You’re Dubya.  It’s 2001, and you’re an oil man.  Your friends are oil men from an oil state.  Your Veep is an oil man.  You’re pretty sure oil is damned important.

Dick and his energy company buddies sit you down and explain Peak Oil to you.  They explain that without cheap oil, America is fucked.  The solution, Dick says, is to control the oil.  Whoever does, wins.  There’s gonna be wars over this stuff.  Big, nasty wars.  We’re going to need to go into places that have oil and set up bases and defend this stuff, or America is going to go belly up.

And, Dick says, if you don’t do this now, they are going to blame you when the crash comes, because you didn’t do it.  You’re going to be the President that lost America.  Food riots.  Millions dying.  The end times are a-comin’ and all that, Georgey.  This is it.  This is the 21st century.  One big oil war.

So Dubya goes along with the plan to hit Iraq and turn it into our base camp.  9/11 happens, and Dick says Hey man, suddenly we have 85-90% of America behind you and we can invade the country and kill the guy who went after your dad and you’ll save the country, George.  You’ll be a goddamn American War President.  

Well, Dubya’s the Decider.  He’s a big picture man.  He’ll save America, dammit.  So we go to war in Iraq.  We say it’s one thing, but we mean another.  Just have to catapult the propaganda.  Just have to fight the War on Terrah.  Cause when the real shit hits the fan, and a tank of gas is half a week’s pay, and groceries is the other half, and they will come for you, man.  But if we control the oil and we get the sweetheart deals, then it won’t happen.  Oil will remain cheap, but not TOO cheap.  And it’ll buy America another couple of decades to find a more permanent solution.

Everybody else?  They’ll have to pay up.  But we’ll be okay.  The oil companies will play along because they’ll make record profits.  The Saudis will play along, and so will the rest of the Middle East, because they need the money too.  Iraq’ll be a cakewalk, you see George.  This is a great plan.  Glad you thought of it.  Win-Win for America and the world, really.  It’ll weaken the Chinese and keep Russia in its place, and Europe will come to us as friends.

And somehow, I can see the light bulb go off over Dubya’s head as he realizes that “future historians will praise him as a visionary President” and all that, and he turns to Dick and says “Hell yeah, let’s do it.  Let’s save ‘murrica.”

Now…maybe I’m reading way, way, way too much into this.  Occam’s Razor strongly supports simple greed and power lust, if not good ol’ fundie Armageddonism.

But Peak Oil does, at least partially I think, explain why we’re in Iraq, and we’ll never leave…and why nobody will admit why we’re really there.

Not just the oil, but control of oil and its price.  And of course, that kind of power grab makes the rest of it:  the civil liberties violations, the rape of the Constitution, the naked soft dictatorship, the persecution of dissent…it makes all of it that much easier, because it’s being done by people who believe they are doing it for true patriotism.

It’ll be necessary to control the riots, Dick says.  You need the ability to respond quickly if things get out of hand.  You gotta get out ahead of this.  We’ll handle the heavy work, we just need your okay, Mr. President.

And so…yeah.  Maybe I’m just terribly cynical like Steven D says, but…I think there’s merit in thinking Peak Oil is part…maybe a very large part…of why we’re in Iraq today.

It doesn’t justify a single drop of blood, of course.  But the underlying logic, such as it is, does seem to hold.