Congressional Quarterly has updated their Senate projections, but they are so timid that I thought I’d do my own in response.
NO CLEAR FAVORITE (4 seats)
KENTUCKY — Mitch McConnell, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 65 percent
McConnell’s high profile as Minority Leader has raised his unfavorable numbers and Bush is tied to him like a stone. The Kentucky GOP is in tatters and their indicted governor will be trounced out of office in November. The Democrats have strong candidates, including Attorney General Greg Stumbo. And McConnell may even face a primary challenge related to his stance on immigration. There is no way that I can say that McConnell is favored in this race, even though he will have a ton of money to make his case.
(cont.)
MAINE — Susan Collins, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 58 percent
Collins is popular. In fact, she is so popular that I am tempted to mark her as the favorite in this race. But, her opponent is 6-term Portland representative Tom Allen, who won his district (half the state) in 2006 with 61% of the vote. Allen’s positions on the issues are a much better fit for the state than Collins’. This race is a toss-up.
NEBRASKA — Chuck Hagel, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 83 percent
Attorney General Jon Bruning is challenging Hagel in a primary. Hagel promised to serve only two terms in the Senate and seems inclined to honor that pledge. If he stays in, then he is the favorite. But if he retires this race will be interesting. If Bob Kerrey runs, I think he will win. Other possibilities are Omaha mayor Mike Fahey and 2006 congressional candidate Scott Kleeb. Either of the latter candidates will give Bruning a run for his money.
TEXAS — John Cornyn, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 55 percent
Texans give Cornyn the worst approval rating of any sitting Senator. It’s Texas…it’s a presidential election year…it’s a toss up. Either Mikal Watts or Rep. Rick Noriega will make this a race to watch.
LEANS DEMOCRATIC (5 seats)
• COLORADO — Open (Wayne Allard, R, retiring)
Vote for winner in 2002: 51 percent
With Allard retiring, the GOP has settled on former congressman Bob Schaffer. Schaffer is not a strong candidate. The Dems are going with Boulder representative Mark Udall. Colorado is gearing up to be a blue state in 2008. The Dems are holding their convention in Denver. And the Udall name is legendary in this part of the country. The seat is definitely the most vulnerable GOP seat.
• MINNESOTA — Norm Coleman, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 50 percent
Coleman’s poll numbers keep dropping. He is going to have a hell of a time winning in a presidential year. The GOP chose Minnesota for their convention, so Minnesotans will get a big up close and personal look at the dysfunctional and hate-filled modern Republican Party. I doubt they’ll like what they see. The Dems will have a spirited primary with the likely winner being either comedian/actor/radio host Al Franken or attorney Mike Ciresi. Either candidate should be favored to win this race.
LOUISIANA — Mary L. Landrieu, D
Vote for winner in 2002: 52 percent
Given the demographic changes in post-Katrina Louisiana, Landrieu should lose. But how can you lose if you don’t have an opponent? The Republicans best chance will come if Bobby Jindal loses his gubernatorial bid this year and runs against Landrieu, next year. Short of that, Landrieu has to be the favorite.
OREGON — Gordon H. Smith, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 56 percent
House Speaker Jeff Merkley and activist Steve Novick are competing for the Democratic nomination. The Governor made the unusual move this week of endorsing a candidate (Merkley) in the primary. That will probably seal it for Merkley, who is widely credited with helping the Dems take over the House and have a very good legislative year. This should be a walk for Merkley.
SOUTH DAKOTA — Tim Johnson, D
Vote for winner in 2002: 50 percent
No way are South Dakotans going to vote out Johnson, who is recovering from brain surgery.
LEANS REPUBLICAN (5 seats)
ALASKA — Ted Stevens, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 78 percent
Ted Stevens is not going to be re-elected. But he will probably retire. He may actually die in prison, but that is another matter. The Dems have a chance in an open seat race, particularly in light of the scandal-ridden status of the state GOP. Can you say Senator Mark Begich?
IDAHO — Larry E. Craig, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 65 percent
Craig will probably retire. Former Democratic Rep. Larry LaRocco is already in the race and running hard. It’s a tough state for a Democrat to win, and in a presidential year, it is even harder. But it’s probably going to be an open seat and we have a good candidate. They don’t.
NEW MEXICO — Pete V. Domenici, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 65 percent
Domenici has to be favored…he’s an institution in the state of New Mexico. But green real estate developer Don Wiviott is a great candidate who can self-fund. And Domenici is scandal ridden at a time when that is likely to be punished. Don’t write off this race.
NORTH CAROLINA — Elizabeth Dole, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 54 percent
This race is ripe for the plucking, but it does need a candidate. Once we have a candidate I’ll probably move this race into the toss-up category.
OKLAHOMA — James M. Inhofe, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 57 percent
This is the place to look for the biggest upset of the ’08 cycle. Andrew Rice is young and energetic, Inhofe is old and lazy. Rice, a Harvard divinity student, dedicated his life to combating religious extremism after his brother died in the World Trade Center. Inhofe is a religious extremist. This is going to be a battle royale and I really have high hopes that we can win this one.
DEMOCRAT FAVORED (6 seats)
ARKANSAS — Mark Pryor, D
Vote for winner in 2002: 54 percent
If Huckabee gets in this race it could be big trouble for Pryor. Otherwise, smooth sailing.
IOWA — Tom Harkin, D
Vote for winner in 2002: 54 percent
Harkin reportedly contemplated retirement, but now that he is chariman of the Agriculture Committee, I don’t think he is going anywhere. The GOP has not recruited anyone of note to take him on.
MONTANA — Max Baucus, D
Vote for winner in 2002: 63 percent
Progressives would like to primary Baucus and get someone better to chair the Finance Committee. But Baucus isn’t going anywhere. The GOP can’t even find anyone to run against him.
NEW HAMPSHIRE — John E. Sununu, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 51 percent
John Sununu is a dead politician walking. We don’t even need to hold this election to know that he is gone…gone like Rick Santorum gone. The question Dems have to answer is whether we want Steve Marchand, Katrina Swett, or Jeanne Shaheen to take over this seat. I know I don’t want Swett but I’m torn between Marchand and Shaheen.
NEW JERSEY — Frank R. Lautenberg, D
Vote for winner in 2002: 54 percent
If the Dems lose any seat in ’08, this is probably going to be it. But I doubt it. Rush Holt should run in the primary for this seat. Six years is too long for him to wait for a promotion.
VIRGINIA — John W. Warner, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 83 percent
If John Warner retires, Mark Warner will be the next senator from Virginia. John Warner is retiring.
REPUBLICAN FAVORED (4 seats)
ALABAMA — Jeff Sessions, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 59 percent
If Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks gets back in this race we have a decent chance to win. Vivian Figures has little chance.
GEORGIA — Saxby Chambliss,
Vote for winner in 2002: 53 percent
Dr. Rand Knight is an attractive candidate and he needs our help in the primary. This is still a tough state for Democrats to win in. But Saxby is no titan.
KANSAS — Pat Roberts, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 83 percent
Roberts is vulnerable. But we don’t have a candidate.
TENNESSEE — Lamar Alexander, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 54 percent
Lamar is beatable but not without a candidate.
SAFE DEMOCRATIC (6 seats)
DELAWARE — Joseph R. Biden Jr., D
This seat could open up if Biden takes a job within the new administration. Whenever he leaves, his son will take over the seat for another 30 years or so.
ILLINOIS — Richard J. Durbin, D
Vote for winner in 2002: 60 percent
Durbin will squash any opponent.
MASSACHUSETTS — John Kerry, D
Vote for winner in 2002: 80 percent
Kerry won’t get 80%. But he will get more than 50%.
MICHIGAN — Carl Levin, D
Vote for winner in 2002: 61 percent
Don’t screw with the Armed Services chairman. He’ll mess you up.
RHODE ISLAND — Jack Reed, D
Vote for winner in 2002: 78 percent
Reed is almost as safe as Chaka Fattah. Almost.
WEST VIRGINIA — John D. Rockefeller IV, D
Vote for winner in 2002: 63 percent
Rockefeller has nothing to worry about.
SAFE REPUBLICAN (4 seats)
MISSISSIPPI — Thad Cochran, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 85 percent
This seat is Cochran’s for as long as he wants it.
SOUTH CAROLINA — Lindsey Graham, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 54 percent
Lindsey has problems with his base. But the Dems have no candidate.
WYOMING (full term) — Michael B. Enzi, R
Vote for winner in 2002: 73 percent
Mike Enzi and Jack Reed are the safest politicians in the Senate.
WYOMING (part term) — John A. Barrasso, R
Vote for winner in 2006: 70 percent
‘This race to fill out the remainder of the late GOP Sen. Craig Thomas’ term’ will probably be decided in the Republican primaries.
