One of the harbingers of political realignment is party-switching by politicians. I’ve been waiting to see this, because all the other signs are already there. From Bluegrass Report, we now have the an example:
Sources tell WHAS 11 News that they expect two republican state house members to officially switch parties and register as democrats this week.
Sources tell me Rep. Melvin Henley (R) Murray and Rep. Milward Dedman, Jr. (R) Harrodsburg will change their party registrations this week. That would extend the democrats advantage in the state House of Representatives to 63-37.
I’m not a big fan of embracing currently serving Republicans into the Democratic Party, but that’s not the point. The point is that GOP politicians in Kentucky are smelling extinction. The Republican brand is suffering terribly. Take a look at Virginia. Rasmussen reports on a potential run for Senate by Mark Warner:
In a match-up of former Virginia Governors, a Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Warner leading Jim Gilmore by twenty percentage points, 54% to 34%. Warner also starts the season with a comfortable lead over Virginia Congressman Tom Davis. The Rasmussen Reports poll shows Warner attracting 57% of the vote while Davis earns 30%.
The last time the Democrats carried Virginia in a presidential race was 1964. I think we will carry it in 2008. And I think 2008 is going to be an election much like 1964. Here’s an interesting fact:
The 1964 election was the only time in American history where all of the outer southern states (Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia) went for one political party and all of the deep southern states (Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina) went for the other political party.
That’s what is shaping up for both the presidential race and, even more so, the senate races. I really think we can win senate races in the outer southern states. The party switchers in Kentucky and the polls out of Virginia validate what I was already feeling. The GOP is stuck on this war and they are going to pay very, very heavily.
This could be largely mitigated if the Republicans got pro-active RIGHT NOW and moved to force an end to the war and disavow their president. They’re not doing it, and the consequences will be terrifying for conservatives.