I don’t like writing about the presidential race. But I do have to comment on this:
Conventional wisdom dictates that Democratic voters are thrilled with their choices for president, bursting at the seams to rally behind Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) or whoever gets the party’s nod next year.
A recent survey by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, however, showed Clinton and Obama trailing former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani (R) in the 31 Democratic-held House districts regarded as most imperiled in 2008, and even potentially serving as a drag on those lawmakers’ reelection chances.
Obama does much better than Clinton.
Giuliani takes 49 percent to Clinton’s 39 percent, while the former mayor’s lead over Obama is far smaller, 41 percent to 40 percent. “Despite Obama’s relative advantage over Clinton, both candidates are significantly underperforming against the generic Democratic edge in the presidential and even against party identification,” Lake and Gotoff wrote.
Congressional Dems are looking good, but their position softens somewhat if they aggressively linked to liberal, big government policies.
While the average lead of Democratic House members stands at 19 percentage points in the 31 vulnerable districts — all but two of which are part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s incumbent-protection program known as Frontline — that number sinks considerably when the lawmakers are linked to either front-runner.
“Some people say [your Democratic incumbent] is a strong supporter of Hillary Clinton and will support her liberal agenda of big government and higher taxes if she becomes president,” the poll stated, before asking respondents whether they would still vote for their incumbent or choose a Republican candidate.
Whether the question named Clinton or Obama, the Democratic incumbent’s lead shrank to an average of six points: 47 percent to 41 percent with Clinton leading the ticket, 44 percent to 38 percent with Obama as the nominee.
I think the really important story here is the 19 point advantage the congressional Dems enjoy. But it is worth noting that Guiliani is capable of winning over moderates, and that Obama and particulaly Clinon have the potential to be a drag on the rest of the ticket.