Congressional Quarterly came out yesterday with their first analysis on the 2008 House races.
As detailed in the chart below, CQPolitics presently classifies 50 House districts as highly competitive, with ratings of either No Clear Favorite (tossup), Leans Democratic or Leans Republican.
The Republicans are the defending party in more of those districts (28) than the Democrats (22). Another 28 districts appear mildly competitive; the partisan breakdown in those districts is 16 Republican-held seats and 12 Democratic-held seats.
The remaining 357 House districts, or 82 percent of the total House membership, appear safe at the moment for the incumbent party…
Below the fold, I keep CQ’s ratings, but I offer my own analysis on the Republican head seats.
Chip in, in the comments, if you know more about these races.
REPUBLICAN-HELD SEATS (44)
No Clear Favorite (6)
Arizona 1 (Rick Renzi, retiring)
Democratic contenders: Mary Kim Titla, publisher of NativeYouthMagazine.com and former broadcaster, Howard Shanker, attorney, Allan Affeldt, Mayor of Winslow.
Republican contenders: Sydney Hay, a political consultant and president of the Arizona Mining Association, State Rep. Bill Konopnicki, State Sen. Tom O’Halleran; and Arizona Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes.
Analysis: Renzi is retiring because he is a crook. The Dems have three attractive candidates. Titla would be the first Native American to ever represent Arizona in Congress. Shanker has done a lot of work with the Reservations and it popular in the Native-American community. I’ve heard positive things about all three Democratic candidates. The Republicans will struggle to retain this seat.
California 4 (John T. Doolittle)
Democratic contender: Charlie Brown, 2006 opponent
Possible primary contenders: Mike Holmes, Auburn city councilman, Eric Egland, Air Force Reservist
Analysis: Doolittle has been stripped of his committee assignments because he is a crook. Charlie Brown lost 49%-46% in 2006. This time he will win. The Republicans only chance is if they can knock Doolittle out in the primary. The district is quite conservative (Bush – 61.28% Kerry – 37.38%).
Illinois 11 (Jerry Weller, retiring)
Democratic contenders: Debbie DeFrancesco Halvorson, State Senate Majority Leader, Jerry Weber, president of Kankakee Community College, John Pavich, 2006 candidate.
Republican contenders: State Sen. Christine Radogno
Analysis: Weller is retiring because he is a crook. The district leans red (Bush – 53.7% Kerry – 46.3%). This seat might very well be a pick-up for the ladies, even if the Republicans retain it.
Minnesota 3 (Jim Ramstad, retiring)
Democratic contenders: State Sen. Terri Bonoff, State Sen. Steve Simon and State Rep. Melissa Hortman.
Republican contenders: State Sen. Geoff Michel and State Rep. Erik Paulsen
Analysis: Ramstad is a major loss for the moderate caucus of the GOP (as if they could afford it). This is a suburban Minneapolis seat (Bush – 50.95% Kerry – 48.05%) that is trending blue fast. The outcome will probably hinge on the political skills of the eventual nominees.
North Carolina 8 (Robin Hayes)
Democratic contender: Larry Kissell, 2006 opponent.
Analysis: Kissell lost in 2006 by 329 votes. He received almost no help from the DCCC. This time, things will be different. Hayes will not be caught by surprise again, and Kissell will be well-funded. If elected, Kissell will probably annoy progressives on a regular basis. Yet, he has a lot of residual netroots support from the last campaign.
Ohio 15 (Deborah Pryce, retiring)
Democratic contender: Mary Jo Kilroy – 2006 candidate
Republican contender: ????
Analysis: The GOP is struggling in candidate recruitment. Right now, this looks like one of the Dems best pick up opportunities. Add another woman to the Congress!
Leans Republican (22)
Alaska At-Large (Don Young)
Democratic contenders: Diane Benson, Native-American activist and 2006 opponent, Mark Begich, Mayor of Anchorage and possible Senate candidate, Ethan Berkowitz. State House Minority Leader
Analysis: The Republicans ought to get cracking on a primary challenger because Don Young is a crook. In fact, the only reason the Dems have a chance in this race is because Don Young is a crook.
Colorado 4 (Marilyn Musgrave)
Democratic contenders: Betsy Markey, former regional director for Sen. Salazar, Brandan Shaffer, State Senator, Eric Eidsness, recently joined the Democratic Party, ran as independent/Reform candidate in 2006
Analysis: I’ve heard good things about Markey, despite her connections to Salazar. I don’t know anything about Shaffer. Eidsness picked up 11% in 2006 as a Reform Party candidate. The district is red (Bush – 58.0% Kerry – 41.2%) but Musgrave only received 45.6% of the vote last time.
Connecticut 4 (Christopher Shays)
Democratic contenders: Jim Himes, Greenwich Town Committee chairman, former Goldman Sachs investment banker,
Analysis: Shays in unhappy in Congress and has recently made threats that he will retire if he isn’t given the ranking position on the Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Shays is the last Republican congressperson from New England. Himes is well-funded and should be favored to win this race.
Florida 13 (Vern Buchanan)
Democratic contenders: Christine Jennings, 2006 opponent, Michael S. LaFevers – AIDS activist.
Analysis: A voting anomaly probably cost Jennings this seat in 2006. But Buchanan has a ton of money. My guess is that the seat stays Republican. Jennings would probably be a Blue Dog democrat anyway, so I really don’t care too much.
Illinois 10 (Mark Steven Kirk)
Democratic contenders: Daniel Seals, 2006 opponent, Jay Footlik, consultant & former Special Assistant to President Clinton.
Analysis: Seals has netroots support; Footlik has institutional support. The district is ripe for the plucking (Kerry – 52.8% Bush – 47.2%) but Seals only managed to get 46.5% of the vote in 2006.
Illinois 14 (J. Dennis Hastert, retiring)
Democratic contenders: John Laesch, 2006 opponent, former Navy intelligence analyst, union carpenter, Jotham Stein, business and employment lawyer, Bill Foster, entrepreneur and physicist, Linda Chapa LaVia, State Representative.
Republican contenders: Tim Schmitz, State Representative, Chris Lauzen, State Senate, Mike Stokke, chief of staff to Hastert, Jim Oberweis, Dairy chairman.
Analysis: Foster was a huge help in the Patrick Murphy (PA-08) campaign and I’ve heard very positive things about him. This should be a hotly contested primary. It would send a nice message if the Dems could pick up the former Speaker’s seat. But it won’t be easy in this district (Bush – 55.8% Kerry – 44.2%)
Michigan 7 (Tim Walberg)
Democratic contenders: Mark Schauer, State Senate Minority Leader
Analysis: Schauer is the strongest possible challenger. Walberg is a right-wing nutcase. He’s also a freshman. The district, which is dominated by Battle Creek, is quite rural (Bush – 54.38% Kerry – 44.54%). This is definitely a race to watch.
Michigan 9 (Joe Knollenberg)
Democratic contenders: Gary C. Peters – Lottery Commissioner & Former State Senator
Analysis: This is another red district in a blue state (Bush – 50.38% Kerry – 48.70%), however, I doubt that Bush could win the district today. Knollenberg’s advantage is that he is an 8-term congressman with a seat on the Appropriations committee. Voters are often reluctant to throw that kind of seniority away. But Peters is considered a very strong challenger.
Missouri 6 (Sam Graves)
Democratic contenders: Kay Barnes, former Kansas City Mayor
Analysis: At first blush, this district looks unattainable (Bush – 57.1%
Kerry – 42.2%). But Barnes is an enormously popular ex-mayor of Kansas City. This race will very competitive.
Nevada 3 (Jon Porter)
Democratic contenders: Robert Daskas , Chief Deputy District Attorney, Dana Titus, 2006 gubernatorial candidate, Maggie Carlton, State Senator and waitress, Barry Michaels, finished second in 2006 primary, Andrew Martin, Certified Public Accountant.
Analysis: Porter won reelection with 48% of the vote. The district is a classic swing district (Bush – 49.93% Kerry – 48.60%). The right candidate will win this seat for the Democrats.
New Jersey 7 (Mike Ferguson)
Democratic contender: Assemblywoman Linda Stender, 2006 opponent.
Analysis: Ferguson held off Stender with 49% of the vote. It was a red district (Bush – 53.1% Kerry – 46.9%) but I doubt it is anymore. This will be a close race that could be effected by a Guiliani presidential campaign.
New Mexico 1 (Heather A. Wilson)
Democratic contenders: Martin Heinrich, Albuquerque City Council President, Jon Adams, former Assistant Attorney General for New Mexico.
Analysis: Wilson is always vulnerable and her ties to the Attorney Gate scandal don’t help.
New York 25 (James T. Walsh)
Democratic contender: Dan Maffei, 2006 opponent
Analysis: This is a rematch of a hard fought ’06 campaign. This time Maffei might be able to pull it out in a modestly blue district (Kerry – 50.31% Bush – 47.77%).
New York 29 (John R. “Randy” Kuhl Jr.)
Democratic contender: Eric Massa, 2006 opponent
Analysis: Massa held Kuhl to 51% in this reddest of districts in the Empire State (Bush – 56.31% Kerry – 41.90%.). It won’t be any easier for Kuhl this time around.
Ohio 1 (Steve Chabot)
Democratic contender: Steven L. Driehaus – State Representative and Minority Whip.
Analysis: Washington insiders are excited about Driehaus…they think is a rising star. Chabot is on retirement watch. In an open seat, this district (Bush – 50.35% Kerry – 49.27%) is highly competitive. But even if Chabot runs again, Dems feel good about this race.
Ohio 2 (Jean Schmidt)
Democratic contender: Victoria Wulsin – 2006 candidate.
Analysis: Another rematch (Schmidt – 50.45% Wulsin – 49.39%). This is one of the reddest districts in the north (Bush – 63.68% Kerry – 35.94%), but ever since Paul Hackett energized the local Democratic Party, the seat has been getting more and more vulnerable for the Republicans. Mean Jean Schmidt may even have a primary challenge to contend with before the main event. Will a presidential race at the top of the ticket help Schmidt?
Ohio 16 (Ralph Regula)
Democratic contender: State Senator John Boccieri,
Analysis: This is another retirement watch. Regula was born in 1924. If this seat is open, it will be competitive (Bush – 53.77% Kerry – 45.75%). If Regula runs again he will probably hold the seat for the GOP.
Pennsylvania 3 (Phil English)
Democratic contenders: Mike Waltner, religious and community organizer, Kyle Foust – Erie Co. Councillor, Tom Myers, Attorney
Independent contender: Steve Porter, 2006 Democratic opponent
Analysis: You might remember the controversy over Blue Majority’s endorsement of the independent in this race. This western Pennsylvania district was red (Bush – 53.1%
Kerry – 46.6%). But it may not be red anymore…think Jason Altmire. Mike Waltner is a good progressive candidate…Kyle Foust is more a Rahm-like candidate.
Pennsylvania 6 (Jim Gerlach)
Democratic contender: ????
Analysis: I spend more than half my time in this district these days. And there are no candidates on the horizon for one of the most vulnerable seats in Congress (Gerlach – 50.7% Murphy – 49.3%). It’s very frustrating, but right now Gerlach is safe.
Washington 8 (Dave Reichert)
Democratic contender: Darcy Burner, 2006 opponent.
Analysis: Another rematch (Reichert – 51.46% Burner – 48.54%). Another barnburner.
West Virginia 2 (Shelley Moore Capito)
Democratic contender: State Sen. John Unger
Analysis: Do you like pro-life Democrats? Here’s your guy. Say hello to the next congressman from the second district of West Virginia. Enjoy.
Wyoming At-Large (Barbara Cubin)
Democratic contender: Gary Trauner, 2006 opponent
Possible primary opponent: State Representative Colin Simpson, son of former Senator Alan Simpson
Analysis: Another rematch (Cubin – 48.32% Trauner – 47.80%). This time Trauner will have to overcome a GOP presidential candidate and two Senate races on the top of the ticket. Wyoming Republicans, however, are not very happy with Cubin.
Republican Favored (16)
Arizona 3 (John Shadegg)
Democratic contender: Bob Lord, Attorney.
Analysis: Lord has raised a tremendous amount of money.
Florida 8 (Ric Keller)
Democratic contenders: Corbett Kroehler, environmental activist, Charles Stuart, 2006 opponent.
Primary challenger: Todd W. Long, attorney and radio host.
Analysis: I’m not sure about the quality of the opposition here. Keller is breaking a term-limits pledge (thus, the primary).
Florida 15 (Dave Weldon)
Democratic contenders: Paul Rancatore – commercial pilot, officer in Air Force Reserves, Steve Blythe, Physician
Analysis: I can’t vouch for the quality of the Dem candidates. The district is conservative (Bush – 57.0% Kerry – 43.0%) so I am not sure why CQ lists this race.
Florida 24 (Tom Feeney)
Democratic contenders: Gaurav Bhula, Clint Curtis, Voting Rights Advocate
Analysis: We need a serious candidate for this race. Feeney has Abramoff problems.
Idaho 1 (Bill Sali)
Democratic contenders: Larry Grant, 2006 contender, Rand C. Lewis, retired Colonel US Army & Professor of Military Science @ Duquesne University, Pittsburgh, PA
Analysis: This could be another rematch (Sali – 49.94% Grant – 44.80%). Sali is an unpredictable loon who could sabotage his campaign at any time.
Illinois 6 (Peter Roskam)
Democratic contender: ????
Analysis: Illinois Republicans are dropping like flies, but where is our contender? Will Tammy Duckworth try again?
Illinois 18 (Ray LaHood, retiring)
Democratic contenders: Dick Versace, TV sports commentator and former Bradley University and NBA basketball coach.
Republican contenders: Aaron Schock, State Representative.
Analysis: Dick Versace has great hair. LaHood won reelection with 67% of the vote and the district favors Republicans (Bush – 58.0% Kerry – 42.0%). But Versace is a minor celebrity. Could be an interesting race.
Minnesota 6 (Michele Bachmann)
Democratic Opponent: Bob Olson, Attorney
Analysis: Bachmann did better than expected in the 2006 race against Patty Wetterling. I don’t know anything about Olson.
Montana At-large (Denny Rehberg)
Democratic Contender: Bill Kennedy – Yellowstone Co. Commissioner
Analysis: I think Rehberg is safe.
Nevada 2 (Dean Heller)
Democratic contender: ????
Analysis: Heller won re-election with only 50% of the vote.
New Jersey 3 (H. James Saxton)
Democratic contender: State Sen. John Adler
Analysis: Democrats are doing flips over the candidacy of Adler. They think Saxton is vulnerable. Maybe so, but he also stands to become the ranking member of the Armed Services committee and he has a lot of seniority on Natural Resources, too.
New York 26 (Thomas M. Reynolds)
Democratic opponent: Jonathan Powers – veteran of Iraq War, Alice Kryzan, Jack Davis, 2006 candidate
Analysis: Let’s see who wins the primary…then we’ll talk.
Ohio 14 (Steven C. LaTourette)
Democratic contenders: Appeals Court Judge William O’Neill, Lewis Katz, 2006 candidate.
Analysis: LaTourette is tacking to the center…voting for SCHIP and signing a bipartisan compact on the Iraq debate to try to forge a compromise solution.
Pennsylvania 15 (Charlie Dent)
Democratic opponent: Siobhan “Sam” Bennett, Democratic – Chair Allentown Democratic Party
Analysis: Don’t get your hopes up.
Pennsylvania 18 (Tim Murphy)
Democratic candidate: Bethany Hafer, Dan Wholey, one of the owners of Robert Wholey & Co. Fish Market.
Analysis: Murphy is under scrutiny for misusing his staff. Bethany is the daughter of the well known state politician (and former Republican), Barbara Hafer.
Virginia 2 (Thelma Drake)
Democratic opponent: ????
Analysis: Republicans were alarmed when Drake only got 51% of the vote in 2006. But we do need a candidate.
