I’ve been looking very closely at all 435 House races for 2008. Who is retiring? Where are there primaries? Where are there ethical scandals? What’s recruitment like? The scene is looking more and more like a GOP disaster in the making. But it looks like the disaster is still confined to the north.
Illinois has 19 House seats (10 Dems, 9 GOP). Yet, it looks increasingly likely that the Dems will take over three Illinois seats (IL-11, IL-14, IL-18). All three seats are open and the Dems have outrecruited the Republicans in every case.
Ohio has 18 House seats (10 GOP, 7 Dem, 1 vacant that is solid GOP). The Dems are competing in five: OH-01, OH-02, OH-14, OH-15, OH-16. I predict the Dems will win the open seat races in the 15th and 16th Districts (Regula has not offically retired yet, but will), and will also steal away OH-01. That will reverse the partisan advantage.
Michigan has 15 House seats (9 GOP, 6 Dem). It should be an 8-7 advantage for the Dems after they get done winning MI-07 and MI-09.
Minnesota has 9 House seats (6 Dem, 3 GOP). The Dems are poised to win MN-03 and I predict an upset victory in MN-06. That will leave John Kline (MN-02) as the only remaining Republican.
This comes after the Republicans took a beating in Indiana in 2006. The Midwest is essentially cleansing itself of conservatives. This is a process that is nearly complete in New England (where Chris Shays CT-04 is the only remaining Republican in the House, and will lose in ’08) and well underway in the Mid-Atlantic and Upstate New York. Republicans are in danger of losing two seats in New Jersey (NJ-03, NJ-07), another three seats in Pennsylvania (PA-03, PA-06, PA-18). In New York, the Republicans only hold 6 out of 29 seats, and only one of them should be considered truly safe (Vito Foselli’s (NY-13) Staten Island seat).
These are the areas where the Republicans stand to be decimated. But there are a few other places where they will probably lose seats. AZ-01, AZ-03, CO-04, and NM-01 are at risk. I also see Dems picking up MO-06, CA-04, NC-08, NV-03, WA-08, WV-02, and possibly AK-AL.
This list is in no way exhaustive. There are more possibilities in Florida, California, and elsewhere. But the main theme is definitely a realignment. It would not be a shock to see the Dems pick up another 25-30 seats, with at least half those seats from formerly red states (mostly through retirement and scandal), and the rest concentrated in the Upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic (Ohio, falling into both categories).
Imagine a future where the Dems have a 50-1 edge in House seats from New York and New England. Because that is where we are headed.