In mythology the “chimera” is a monstrous creature made of the parts of multiple animals. Pakistan seems to fit the bill but it ain’t no fantasy. It is a nightmare. Pakistan remains the best friend and worst enemy when it comes to fighting and harboring terrorists. It does not choose between the options. It simply does both.
The Musharraf coup this past week has exposed the fatal flaw of the failed Bush policy in South Asia and given us a peek that many of the democrats continue to pay lip service to George Bush’s democratic fantasies. I have heard John Edwards and Joe Biden offer the “sage” advice that what we need in Pakistan is democracy. These guys have not learned a thing in the last four years–the United States cannot impose democracy and, in some cases, a democracy is the last thing we want.
But leave it to the Wall Street Journal to remind us that the neocon fantasy of remaking the world lives on:Whatever Pervez Musharraf’s failings in Islamabad, his impact in Washington has been nothing short of miraculous. With his declaration of emergency rule, the Pakistan President has single-handedly revived the Bush Doctrine. The same people who only days ago were deriding President Bush for naively promoting democracy are now denouncing him for not promoting it enough in Pakistan.
“We have to move from a Musharraf to a Pakistan policy,” declared Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden on Thursday. “Pakistan has strong democratic traditions and a large, moderate majority. But that moderate majority must have a voice in the system and an outlet with elections. If not, moderates may find that they have no choice but to make common cause with extremists, just as the Shah’s opponents did in Iran three decades ago.”
Joe Biden, neocon.
The Senator’s epiphany underscores that Pakistan has long been the playground not of democracy promoters but of the foreign-policy “realists.” General Musharraf may have taken power in a coup, but when Colin Powell famously gave him the for-us-or-against-us choice after 9/11, the general chose “for.” He is a U.S. ally in a rough neighborhood, his government captured such al Qaeda bigs as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and as an authoritarian he was of the moderate kind. The Bush Administration did push Mr. Musharraf to restore democratic legitimacy, but quietly and without great urgency. Brent Scowcroft would have approved.
I favor a government in Pakistan committed to a rule of law. Hell, I would settle for one in the United States. I favor a government in Pakistan that protects the rights of minorities and honors habeas corpus. That would be nice to have in the United States too.
But the fact of the matter is there is precious little we can do in Pakistan right now without further harming our interests in the region. We act like spoiled, immature children in pursuing our relations with countries like Pakistan. Good Christ! We did the same stupid shit with Saddam. One minute we have Don Rumsfeld in Baghdad shaking Saddam’s hand and helping us contain Iran. Next thing you know Saddam is suddenly the face of all evil. He’s more Hitler than Hitler.
Now Musharraf gets to play the role. He was one of our best friends per George Bush. Of course his refusal to conduct affairs in Pakistan according to constitutional principles and western-style legislative/judicial procedures is not new. He was acting like that prior to 9-11. If we push for democracy in Pakistan–a rule in which the majority of the population shape the government priorities–stand by for chaos. We still seem to have trouble getting our minds around the notion that a majority Shia in Iraq will elect Shias who in turn will by sympathetic to Iran. DUH!!
Pat Lang offered up these insights on the particulars in Pakistan::
Pakistan is prone to religious fanaticism, tribal unrest and the rule of warriors? What a surprise! This is the traditional pattern of government throughout the Islamic World. There are places where this pattern does not exist; Jordan, Morocco. the UAE, Oman and a few more. The crowd will roar but I would include Egypt in this group. Strong, traditional rulers who govern with a modicum of common sense are the pattern in such places. Do we applaud their methods in such states? No! We Westerners typically seek to undermine them because they are not what we think they should be. What is that? Exactly like us, that is what we think they should be. For all our talk about the “blossoming” of freedom in locally acceptable forms, we Americans (and a lot of others) do not believe in that for a minute. We want people to be exactly like us.
In places like Pakistan where the veneer of Tom Friedman’s flat world is mighty thin, meddling in the local social order carries a high risk of de-stabilizing society and releasing forces that we have no ability to manage.
Our pressure for “Democracy” in Pakistan has been incompatible with our willingness to engage an already Islamist state like Pakistan as an ally. We have wrecked the status quo in Pakistan. Now we will all pay a price.
Ray Close, a celebrated CIA case officer and middle east expert, had more “cheery” news along these lines:
We cannot hope to mobilize our many friends in the Muslim world to join with us in opposing what we broadly label “Islamic extremism” if we continually project an image of ignorance and hostility toward the sensitivities and concerns of the huge majority among them who, exactly like us, want peace and stability in their own societies and everywhere else.
This report specifically addresses the question of why the Pakistan army has not been as effective as we have hoped and expected in its operations within Pakistan against al-Qa’ida and the Taliban. Our repeated criticisms of those efforts have not helped, of course. Case in point: Remarks by some US presidential candidates of both political parties to the effect that we should have no compunctions about violating Pakistan’s territorial integrity in pursuit of elements that we judge to be hostile to America, with or without the concurrence of the Government of Pakistan. A great way to win friends and influence people!
Ray also sent along this tidbit from a knowledgeable source in Pakistan:
Attitudes of the Pakistan Army officer corps, as exhibited by well-informed military contacts in Rawalpindi:
Generally the officers are not too bothered about what has happened — and though there is criticism, it is tepid.
Much more serious is the army reaction to deployment in Swat and Tribal areas. There have been a few incidents of officers refusing to take part in these operations — but mostly it seems that the ORs [Other Ranks, i.e. enlisted men] do not want to fight their own co-religionists in a war they consider to be a US war against Islam. Nearly every second day one hears of a surrender by some government units without firing a shot — this is the clearest statement yet of the unpopularity of these operations.
In my opinion if this situation lingers on it will have a disastrous effect on the army. If the army becomes destabalised, there is no other force in the country to fill the vaccum.
I have had the chance to discuss the effect of a US strike against Iran, with two generals — both thought this would be a huge disfavour to Pakistan.
On Iran, the disfavour would be in terms of taking the attention away from Musharraf’s excesses and turning the population uniformly against the US, further strengthening the notion in Pakistan that the US is bent upon destroying Islamic nations one by one.
At some point we need to grow up and acknowledge we do not control the world and we usually cannot make other countries do what we want. Hell, can we at least admit that we have a pretty spotty record when it comes to governing our own country in a humane, decent manner? We continue to act the role of a drunken mother-in-law who delights herself–when not pouring herself a new shot of scotch–in lecturing her ne’er do well son-in-law about his slovenly ways and the need to clean up his act.
Before we get on our moral high horses and lecture Pakistan on what it needs to do, perhaps we could first get an attorney general in place who understands that water boarding is torture. Or, how about shutting down or own illegal detention camps in Guantanamo? We need to move out of our glass house before we launch a rock throwing business. Just a thought.
