You heard here first, or at least you heard here early, that the Democrats are going to clean up in the 2008 senatorial elections. I suggested back in the summer that the Democrats would pick up somewhere between 4 and 14 Senate seats…with the 16 needed for a supermajority not entirely out of the question. It’s now common wisdom that the Democrats will win 4-7 seats, and possibly more.
I’ve also written about what a near Democratic supermajority would look like and what it would mean. Prior Democratic supermajorities (in the 1930’s and the 1960’s) relied on the segregationist South. But the racist block is gone…largely driven underground, it now exists entirely within the party of Lincoln. What remains is social conservatism, coupled with and somewhat overlapping with a basically corporate block of voters known (in the House) as the Blue Dogs. Not all Blue Dogs are the same, not all of them are bad representatives. But the overwhelming majority of pro-life Democrats are Blue Dogs. The same goes for those that are pro-war, pro-torture, and pro-illegal surveillance. They also tend to be anti-gay rights, soft on the separation of church and state, tepid supporters of or outright anti-labor, anti-Affirmative Action, hostile to gun control, uncritical supporters of empire…basically unprogressive across the board.
Blue Dog Democrats are concentrated in the South and the border states, but there are several from heavily militarized districts in California, and a few in the Mid-Atlantic and upper Midwest.
When we look at the prospect of a near supermajority of Democrats in the Senate, we should ask ourselves how many of those new Democrats are going to be anti-progressive or even outright Republican in outlook.
The good news is that our current crop of Senate recruits is surprisingly decent. Jeff Merkley is running in Oregon. He’s currently the Speaker of the House, represents a working class, hardhat part of Portland, and would probably be one of our most progressive senators.
Al Franken is running in Minnesota (he still needs to win the nomination) and I think we can rely on him to be one of the more progressive senators.
Mark Udall is running in Colorado and he is a little bit of a mixed bag. He combines mainly progressive instincts with the kind of wishy-washiness on national security matters that we’ve come to expect from members of the Armed Services committees. I’d expect him to be a Barbara Mikulski type of senator. Not too bad, when it comes down to it. His cousin, Tom Udall, is running in New Mexico. He’s a member of both the Progressive and the New Democrat caucuses. He’s a strong environmentalist in a pro-energy state.
Mark Warner is running in Virginia, and he is the prototypical New Democrat. He’s probably more Evan Bayh than Tom Carper, and that’s a good thing. If there is a problem with Warner it’s that he is not going to shrink from supporting military adventures to protect American business interests. He’s an innovative thinker and a great guy, but don’t look for him to lead (in a good way) on foreign policy.
Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is running in New Hampshire. She is much like Mark Warner…a Clintonite New Democrat-style candidate. She isn’t going to move the progressive ball down the table, but she will fit right in with the Maria Cantwell and Debbie Stabenows of the Senate.
These are our six most likely pick-ups. And none of them are bad. None of them are even on the right on social issues. In the small wave scenario, we won’t only pick up seats, but we’ll wind up with a more progressive caucus.
Just out of the small-wave is Rep. Tom Allen, who is challenging the popular Susan Collins in Maine. Tom Allen is a New Democrat, but not a notably obnoxious one. He’d fit right in the ideological middle of the caucus…perhaps even slightly to the left.
The next tier might be expected to begin to test our standards for what we expect in a Democrat…but it really doesn’t. In Oklahoma we are running a young, fairly progressive candidate, state Sen. Andrew Rice. You can see a nice profile on him here. He’s pro-gun rights (so am I) and enforcement-first on immigration (kind of mandatory in his state). But he’s also pro-choice and anti-war, and dedicated to combating religious extremists of all faiths.
In North Carolina, we are going to have a primary between the openly gay businessman Jim Neal and the state senator, Kay Hagan. [Interestingly, Hagan is the niece of former Florida Gov. Lawton Chiles]. As far as I know, both these candidates are pro-choice (if you know better, tell me) and I know Neal is pro-gay rights. Neal, at least, is calling for a withdrawal of troops from Iraq.
In Tennessee, we might have the son of a popular governor running: Mike McWherter. He hasn’t come out with his positions on the issues. Yet, I haven’t heard Tennessean progressives yelping at the prospect of his candidacy as the did with Harold Ford.
In Kentucky we are looking at either Attorney General Greg Stumbo or State Auditor Crit Luallen. And I don’t see either of them as out-of-step with mainstream Democratic values.
In Idaho, we have Larry LaRocco running. He is a perfectly acceptable candidate.
Rick Noriega is running in Texas. He’s pro-choice and anti-war. He ain’t exactly a progressive, but he’s not really a Blue Dog or New Democrat either. If he wins, he’ll probably resemble a pro-energy version of Jim Webb more than anything else.
We don’t have a candidate in Alaska yet, but the most likely prospect is Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, and it’s too early to say where he will come down on the issues. I expect him to be a big-oil senator…how could he avoid it? But I’ve heard good things about him from Democrats.
These are the types of seats we might pick up in a big wave election. We aren’t likely to win any of them, but none of them are out of the question, either. I don’t think any of these candidates are anti-choice or pro-surge (except, possibly, for McWherter). In other words, we can go deep into Republican territory without beginning to resemble Republicans.
It’s only in the massive wave area where we begin to flirt with recruiting Ben Nelson/Zell Miller/Joe Lieberman Democrats. Nowhere is this more obvious than Nebraska, where Ben Nelson is exerting his influence to recruit Tony Raimondo into the race. Raimando is a Republican, plain and simple [Check it out].
We face the same problem in Georgia, where the leading Democratic contenders include a guy that voted for George W. Bush in 2004 and a guy that is attacking Saxby Chambliss for being soft on immigration. Obviously, the Democrats don’t think they can win in Georgia unless they act like Zell Miller. And that might be true in South Carolina as well, although no Democrat is even running against Lindsey Graham. His challenge is from his right.
In Alabama we have almost no chance. But our candidate isn’t some red-faced cracker trying to out-Jesus the GOP. It’s an African-American female state senator named Vivian Figures.
I have no idea who we are going to run in either Wyoming seat (if anyone).
As for Trent Lott’s seat, our strongest contender is former Attorney General Mike Moore, who is famous (and popular) for winning a huge settlement against the tobacco industry. I don’t know where Moore stands on the issues, but he can’t be as fucking crazy as the other main contender, former governor Ronnie Musgrove. Musgrove would be a true throwback. Here’s but one example:
In 2000, Musgrove signed a bill into law banning lesbian and gay couples from adopting children, making Mississippi only the third state having done so. The law also says that Mississippi will not recognize adoptions from other states by lesbian and gay couples.
Yet, in a Senate with 67 Democratic senators, I think we could live with one crackpot from Mississippi.
My point in writing this is that the Democrats are not pursuing a strategy of convincing Republicans to switch parties and run as Democrats. The strategy is to go after the Republicans with mainstream Democrats. This isn’t the same strategy that was used in the House races last time. This is a better strategy.
In the biggest of all wave elections, we might wind up with some pseudo Democrats in Georgia, Nebraska, and Mississippi. And I can live with that.
