According to a Pew Hispanic Center poll, the Republicans have lost all the support among Hispanics that they gained early in Bush’s first term.
Hispanics are returning to the Democratic Party after several years of drifting toward the Republicans, with many saying Bush administration policies have been harmful to their community, a poll showed Thursday.
By 57 percent to 23 percent, more Hispanic registered voters say they favor Democrats than Republicans, according to a survey by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center.
Add to this:
Using September 2007 Census Bureau data and projecting from 2004 voting behavior, Pew estimated there would be 8.6 million Hispanic voters next year – 1 million more than in 2004.
While that would be a small portion of the overall expected vote, Pew estimated that Hispanics comprise a large enough share of eligible voters to affect the outcome in four states where Bush prevailed in 2004 by 5 percentage points or fewer: New Mexico, Florida, Colorado and Nevada.
It’s easy to see why. Let’s take that 57%-23% advantage and assign the 20% that are undecided evenly. If the Democrats win the Hispanic vote by a 67%-33% margin, how does that plug into the 8.6 million estimated Hispanic voters?
It comes out to:
Democrats: 5,762,000
Republicans: 2,838,000
Net Democratic advantage: 2,924,000
Bush’s official popular vote margin over John Kerry was 3,337,303. Of course, Kerry won the Hispanic vote, but exit polls showed an anemic 53%-44% advantage. The net difference between pulling 53%-44% and 67%-33% of a 8.6 million voter bloc is approximately two and a half millions votes.
Also of interest:
Among Hispanics who are registered Democrats, 59 percent said they want Hillary Rodham Clinton to be their party’s presidential candidate, followed by 15 percent who prefer Barack Obama. Among Hispanic Republicans, Rudy Giuliani leads Fred Thompson, 35 percent to 13 percent.
The Republicans weakness among Hispanic voters may cost them New Mexico, Florida, Colorado and Nevada in the 2008 election. If they don’t repair the damage, it will cost them a lot more than that over the long term.
