There are two contests tomorrow in the Iowa caucuses. No, I do not refer to the Republican race, but to the Democratic one. There is the battle between Clinton-Edwards-Obama for first place, and then there is the battle between Dodd-Biden-Richardson-Kucinich for fourth place. The import of the first contest is obvious, but the second contest matters, too.
If Edwards wins in Iowa and Obama wins in New Hampshire, we could see a situation develop where none of the top three candidates are able to gather a majority of the delegates before the convention. The reason is simple. While Edwards will probably drop out if he doesn’t win Iowa or New Hampshire, Clinton and Obama have too much money and national support to quit before February 5th’s Super Duper Tuesday. And Hillary has some advantages on Super Duper Tuesday. Among the twenty-one states voting for Democrats that day are her adopted homes states of Arkansas and New York, plus regional neighbors New Jersey and Connecticut. California is also friendly turf for the Clintons. If Clinton remains viable, she will probably win the plurality of delegates in Super Tuesday. If the race has already been whittled down to a two-way race between Clinton and Obama, she will probably win a majority of delegates and be well on her way to the nomination.
It might be too late, at that point, for buyer’s remorse. It is better for the Democratic contest to last as long, and involve as many states, as possible. The more candidates in the race the more likely that the race will last and will involve more diversity of opinion.
If Edwards wins Iowa and can go on to win, say, South Carolina, we will be in good shape for a three-way race that lasts a while…maybe even into the convention. And that’s where the second-tier candidates come in. In any brokered convention, you can rely on Biden and Richardson to toss their delegates to Clinton and Kucinich to toss his delegates to Obama. I don’t know where Dodd will throw his delegates, but I doubt they will be with the Clintons.
If you want a long campaign and you want something other than a Clinton restoration, then you should hope that Edwards wins the Iowa caucus and that Dodd wins the fourth place contest. If you’re an anti-Clintons Iowa voter you have really three options.
1) You can vote for Obama, hoping he simply wipes Clinton out and sweeps to victory.
2) You can vote for Edwards, hoping that he can parlay an Iowa victory into victories in other states. However, it still unlikely Edwards can win except in a brokered convention unless Clinton simply implodes before Feb. 5th.
3) You can vote for Dodd as a first choice and if he isn’t viable, switch to 1) or 2).
I advise option three because keeping Dodd in the race is important. It rewards good behavior, it shows that backbone pays off electorally, and it keeps someone in the race that is right on the issues and has the experience and press relations to be president…if given the chance. If Dodd finishes fourth he will not only fight on, but he will surpass expectations and get some new attention. If one of the big three drop out, Dodd could move up. He might even get enough publicity and connect with enough voters to get a shot at the vice-presidency.
So, my recommendation is that Iowa primary voters go to the caucus intending to vote for Dodd. If Dodd doesn’t reach 15% at your caucus, then vote for Edwards. Or Obama. Either way. Just, please…don’t be an idiot and vote for Hillary Clinton.
