Yesterday I predicted that Mike Huckabee, quite comfortably, and John Edwards, in an essential tie with Obama, would win the Iowa caucuses. I revised that prediction this morning when I saw that Biden and Richardson were going to throw their support to Barack Obama. My final prediction was that Obama and Huckabee would win, and that Clinton would finish third. I win!!
Here’s my next prediction. Mitt Romney is done. Romney has some narrow room for hope in that most independents in New Hampshire will probably choose to vote for Obama over McCain. And Fred Thompson could be a wild card. Thompson finished ahead of McCain in Iowa but he still might drop out and endorse McCain. If Thompson stays in he could peel off enough McCain support to hand the Granite State to Romney. But here is what I see happening over the next five days:
The Republican Establishment is going to go apoplectic at the prospect of a Huckabee nomination. The media is going to focus on two huge story lines: 1) Barackapalooza 2) enormous turnout among Democrats and Democratic preference among independents, young people, etc. This will lead to even more Republican panic. Where can they turn for salvation? Rudy Giuliani just lost over 3 to 1 to Ron Paul. It’s McCain or Thompson, and Thompson is sleepwalking. Everything the media and the Establishment has is going to be thrown into bucking up McCain. And it will work. McCain will win New Hampshire.
McCain will lose South Carolina and Florida, but he’ll win Michigan. And then it will be a war on Feb. 5th to decide the nomination of the Republican Party.
On the Democratic side, Hillary is done. She will never recover her footing. She will come in third again in New Hampshire. She will not win in South Carolina. Her best best is to win in the Nevada caucuses. She won’t win there. She may not win a single primary (although, I think she can win a few states, including New York, on Feb. 5th). Right now we have a two way race between Obama and Edwards and I can’t see anyway that Edwards wins it unless something strange happens.
It’s only one caucus, but this thing is almost settled. It will almost definitely be Obama vs. McCain…but Huckabee has a real shot. That’s my prediction.
Obama will beat McCain. Obama will destroy Huckabee.