One of the benefits of not having a dog in the presidential primaries is that I can sit back and do punditry without worrying much about whether it will affect the outcome (not that it would, in any case). I’ve seen a few people come out and say that they really hate someone’s policy on this or that (e.g., Obama’s health care plan) but there aren’t any real differences in the policies of the big three candidates. They’re all saying essentially the same things, so minor differences get magnified.
Keep in mind that any health care plan will have to pass through congressional committees where all kinds of amendments will be introduced, and then there is the wicked filibuster. It’s far more important for health care in this country that we elect Democratic senators than that we pick Edwards or Clinton over Obama. Give us 61 or 62 senators and we might even be able to pass single-payer Medicare for all health care. Without such a majority it is not even worth proposing.
It’s amusing to see the right-wing reaction to last night’s results. For example:
The upshot is that the Dems are going to have a long primary with two very well funded candidates. The Clintonistas will only give up their power when it is taken from their cold, dead hands. I mean, can you imagine her losing one more race and dropping out? They will tear up Obama, and he will respond tearing her up. And everything that they do will reinforce why Democrats and independents don’t like her. At the same time, both are going to have to run to the left. As Danny pointed out, “the longer it goes on and more liberal positions that they are forced to embrace, the better for us in the general.”
Regardless of the question of who we face, our chances in the general just got a lot better. In all cases, the Democratic base will be more split up, and the candidates will be damaged by the nastiness.
How’s that for rose-colored glasses? The Republicans just elected a man that is wholly unsatisfactory to the Republican Establishment, to the Club for Growth, to paleoconservatives, to neoconservatives, to Goldwater conservatives, to country club Republicans, to most suburbanites, to scientists and technocrats, and to the youth vote. But it is our side that is going to suffer a divisive battle?
I think it is going a little far to say that the Clintons won’t give up until power is pried out of their cold, dead hands. I think they are capable of seeing the writing on the wall. This morning they already know it’s over. They saw Obama’s speech last night. They saw the record turnout, and the fact that Obama beat them with both registered Democrats and women. They know the rationale for Hillary’s presidency is gone. The Democratic Party just found El Dorado…the magic formula that vastly increases turnout. We’ve got the polling advantage and the money advantage…and now we have a candidate that can blast turnout percentages into the stratosphere. That’s the formula for erasing the blue/red divide and building a truly progressive ruling majority that can last decades.
Edwards and Clinton will fight on, but independents in New Hampshire are going to give Obama a twenty-point victory there, and then it’s on to South Carolina where the black community will vote as they have never voted before.
Unless the Democratic electorate suddenly decides that we need someone with more national security experience in office, there is nothing that can stop the Obama steamroller now. And I’m totally fine with that. I’ve never been able to decide between Edwards and Obama. My only concern was that Team Hillary not be given the reins of the party. Never again, as they say. I’m almost certain I’ve gotten my wish.
Will it be a quick and painless death, or a long drawn out and painful one?
Part of Team Clinton’s problem is that they can’t lay a glove on Obama. People don’t care about his foreign policy experience and they aren’t all that impressed with Hillary’s resume. Team Clinton can’t attack his character or it boomerangs on them. There’s no significant policy differences to work with. And Clinton was, and is, wrong on the war in Iraq. Game over. What can they even use to cause division? Nothing. They are limited to asking people to like and trust Hillary more than they like and trust Barack. How do you think that is going to work out?
At a final bit, to drive my point home, here are the historic bump numbers a candidate receives in New Hampshire after a win in Iowa:
An Iowa bounce gives:
1st place: +14.5
2nd place: +3.2
3rd place: -3.5
4th place: -4.4Translation for NH:
(last pre-Iowa RCL average)
Obama: (27) 41.5%
Clinton: (27) 23.5%
Edwards: (18.5) 21.7%
Richardson: (5.8) 1.4%
If history is any guide…