X-posted to Docudharma
I stand by my pessimism that Hillary Clinton can be driven out of the race prior to substantial losses in the likes of North Carolina, Indiana, and Kentucky in May. I stand by my pessimism that the Clintons would be better positioned to twist arms in a brokered convention, and that Hillary would win in part by offering Obama the poisoned apple of the Vice-Presidency, which he will turn down. But it has occurred to me that there is one way that Obama would be able to win over a brokered convention, and it would coincidentally lead to the best ticket and the best government we could rightfully expect.
He can convince Al Gore to become his Vice-President.
I’ve suggested this before and have been shot down, but I can now imagine a plausible path to its happening. Al Gore does not want to be Vice-President. It would take something huge to change his mind. But something huge appears to be on the way: a brokered convention that Hillary — of whom he does not appear to be fond — looks like she could win while dashing the hopes of a generation of newly activated Obama supporters. And it may well be that there is only one way that Obama would be able to turn the tide of Superdelegates: giving the people what they crave. That is, another chance to vote for Al Gore.
Gore would require a huge portfolio — such as the sort of control over policy related to global warming that Cheney has had over secrecy and oil policy — and Obama is sensible enough to give it to him. If it means some power-sharing, that’s fine; it will blunt the criticism of Obama having to learn on the job. Not even Hillary in her wildest dreams can match Al Gore’s level of experience.
This — not only the carrot of control over national policy as related to global warming, but the stick of suffering through a Hillary Presidency, or more likely a McCain Presidency, if he demurs — is probably just about the only way to get Al Gore back into politics. And it may end up being the best, if not only, way for Obama to win a brokered convention.
Obama would be doing what Ronald Reagan did prior to the brokered convention in 1976, when he announced prior to the convention that his Vice-Presidential pick would be Richard Schweiker, the liberal-moderate GOP Senator from Pennsylvania. This attempt at achieving ideological balance was not enough to convince the convention delegates to choose him over Ford, and there was a drive, similar to the “Hillary-Obama” one we see today, to convince Ford to choose Reagan as his VP. (He chose Dole instead.) But that is the difference between Gore and Schweiker – no one was aching to have Schweiker on the ticket. A “Gore ex machina” ending to the campaign would raise excitement to a fever pitch, and even the superdelegates would have to rally behind it.
Unless Gore is willing to say yes to it now, which would clinch the primaries, Obama should allow this to be a tease. Let people know in June that it’s a possibility. Let Al Gore mull it over for a while through July, while they suck up the limelight and the oxygen. And then, a couple weeks before the convention, let people know that the deal is done. Or some better playwright than I can figure out the optimal timing. It would be great theater in any case.
Al Gore is the one person with the political heft to push Hillary Clinton away from center stage at a brokered convention. An endorsement alone won’t do it. The prospect of his being an integral part of our government, from the Office of the Vice-President, will. He’s our anti-Cheney, and he can decide this nomination contest. If the nomination is still up in the air after Puerto Rico votes in June, he may be Obama’s best, or even only, chance.
