The following five states are states that have already held Democratic primaries (as opposed to caucuses) that Sen. Barack Obama won. They are all southern or border states that held Senate elections in 2002 and all of them except Missouri are holding Senate elections again this year. Let’s take a look at these states and see what a Barack Obama candidacy might mean for the general election.
Alabama
2008 (Won by Obama)
Democratic Primary Vote: 593,743 (51.2%)
Republican Primary Vote: 563, 822 (48.7%)2004
Kerry: 37%
Bush: 63%2002
Susan Parker: 40%
Sen. Jeff Sessions (incumbent): 59%
Jeff Sessions originally won this seat 52%-45% in 1996. He’s going for his third term against a little known African-American state senator from Mobile named Vivian Figures.
Obama received 92,000 more votes than McCain in the primary and 60,000 more than Mike Huckabee. On a percentage basis, there is a 14 point swing to the Democrats over the 2004 presidential race.
Georgia (Won by Obama)
2008
Democratic Primary Vote: 1,046,485 (52.2%)
Republican Primary Vote: 955,462 (47.7%)2004
Kerry: 41%
Bush: 58%2002
Max Cleland (incumbent): 46%
Sen. Saxby Chambliss: 53%
I assume you all remember the Saxby Chambliss/Max Cleland race from 2002 where triple amputee Cleland had his patriotism questioned. Well, there is a nine-point swing in the Democrats’ direction from the 2004 presidential election. The Democrats have a very weak field of candidates running in a primary and Chambliss now has the advantage of incumbency. But as red as Georgia has been trending, there was no red trend in this year’s primary. And Obama got more votes than Huckabee and McCain combined.
Louisiana (Won by Obama)
2008
Democratic Primary Vote: 357,547 (69.6%)
Republican Primary Vote: 156,101 (30.3%)2004
Kerry: 42%
Bush: 57%2002:
Mary Landrieu (incumbent): 52%
Suzanne Haik Terrell: 48%
Mary Landrieu is our only vulnerable incumbent senator. The Republican numbers were a bit depressed because Mitt Romney dropped out the day before the primary. But that cannot fully explain a 27% swing in the Democrats direction since the 2004 presidential election.
Missouri (Won by Obama)
2008
Democratic Primary Vote: 820,453 (58.3%)
Republican Primary Vote: 584,618 (41.6%)2004
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 53%2002:
Jean Carnahan (incumbent): 49%
Jim Talent: 50%
Missouri had a special election in 2002 to fill out the full term of Mel Carnahan, who has the distinction of beating John Ashcroft even though he died in an airplane crash late in the campaign. There are no senate elections in Missouri this year. But you can see the 12 point swing to the Democrats over the results from the 2004 presidential election.
South Carolina (Won by Obama)
2008
Democratic Primary Vote: 530,322 (54.4%)
Republican Primary Vote: 442,918 (45.5%)2004
Kerry: 41%
Bush: 58%2002:
Alex Sanders: 44%
Lindsey Graham: 54%
Lindsey Graham’s seat is more vulnerable to a Republican primary opponent than a Democrat. The Democrats haven’t even recruited anyone to run against Graham. Perhaps they should get going on that because a 13-point swing to the Democrats over the 2004 presidential election result is enough to put Sen. Graham’s seat in jeopardy.
I can make an even more compelling case for the potential of Barack Obama to sweep in new Democrats to the Senate by looking at the caucus states of Alaska, Idaho, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Maine. Unfortunately, I can’t compare turnout as directly with caucus numbers. But turnout has been insane in all of the caucus states, and Obama has won or tied them all.
Hillary Clinton is contributing to high turnout, too, but she has no ability to help in these plains and southern states. In Idaho, she only got 17% of Democratic delegates. Obama can not only win in Alabama and Georgia and South Carolina and Idaho and Nebraska and Kansas, he can have coattails for other candidates.
Other than Oklahoma and Tennessee, I haven’t seen any state he’s competed in (except Utah) that he couldn’t win in November. Clinton? It’s be another blue/red battle with about 18 purple states being the only battlefield.