Progress Pond

Senate Outlook

1. Virginia (OPEN SEAT- John Warner)

Challenger: Mark Warner

Primary winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama 29%
2002 Margin: GOP ran unopposed

2. New Hampshire (John Sununu)

Challenger: Jeanne Shaheen

Primary winner: Hillary Clinton (Barack Obama split the delegates here 9-9)
Margin: Clinton +3%
2002 Margin: GOP +4%

3. New Mexico (OPEN SEAT- Pete Domenici)
Challenger: Tom Udall

Caucus winner: Hillary Clinton
Margin: Clinton +1%
2002 Margin: GOP +30

4. Minnesota (Norm Coleman)

Challenger: Al Franken

Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +34%
2002 Margin: GOP +3

5. Colorado (OPEN SEAT- Wayne Allard)
Challenger: Mark Udall

Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +35%
2002 Margin: GOP +5

6. Oregon (Gordon Smith)
Challenger: Jeff Merkley

Primary winner: May 20th
Margin:
2002 Margin: GOP +4%

7. Maine (Susan Collins)

Challenger: Tom Allen

Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +19%
2002 Margin: GOP +18

8. Alaska (Ted Stevens)

Challenger: Mark Begich

Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +49%
2002 Margin: GOP +69

9. North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole)

Challenger(s): Kay Hagan or Jim Neal

Primary winner: May 6th
Margin:
2002 Margin: GOP +9%

10. Nebraska (OPEN SEAT- Chuck Hagel)

Challenger: Tony Raimando

Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +34%
2002 Margin: GOP +69

11. Texas (John Cornyn)

Challenger: Rick Noriega

Primary/Caucus winner: March 4th
Margin:
2002 Margin: GOP +12

12. Oklahoma (James Inhofe)

Challenger: Andrew Rice

Primary Winner: Hillary Clinton
Margin: Clinton +24%
2002 Margin: GOP +30%

13. Idaho (OPEN SEAT- Larry Craig)

Challenger: Larry LaRocco

Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +63%
2002 Margin: GOP +32

14. Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)

Greg Fischer or Bruce Lunsford

Primary winner: May 20th
Margin:
2002 Margin: GOP +28

15. Mississippi (Roger Wicker/Trent Lott)

Challenger: Ronnie Musgrove

Primary winner: March 10th
Margin:
2006 Margin: GOP +29%

16. Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Challenger: Vivian Figures

Primary winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +14%
2002 Margin: GOP +19

17. Kansas (Pat Roberts)

Challenger: Lee Jones

Primary winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +49%
2002 Margin: GOP ran unopposed

18. Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)

Challenger: Chris Lugo

Primary Winner: Hillary Clinton
Margin: Clinton +13%
2002 Margin: GOP +10%

19. Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)

Challenger(s): several, none strong.

Primary winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +35%
2002 Margin: GOP +7

20. South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)

Challenger: none

Primary winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +28%
2002 Margin: GOP +10%

21. Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

Challenger: Erik Fleming

Primary winner: March 10th
Margin:
2002 Margin: GOP ran unopposed

22. Wyoming (Mike Barrasso)

Challenger: none

Caucus winner: March 8th
Margin:
2006: 40%

23. Wyoming (Mike Enzi)

Challenger: none

Caucus winner: March 8th
Margin:
2002: GOP +47%

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