Live Blogging from Wisconsin

14 Comments

1. 

   Real History Lisa on February 19, 2008 at 3:27 pm

   I was just reading this as I opened a fortune cookie. It says, “You have the makings of a winner.”

   I sure hope so!!!!

2. 

   ben masel on February 19, 2008 at 3:29 pm

   links
   If not on front page, try County Clerks.

   Milwaukee and the smallest counties don’t post returns til next AM.

   The following have usually had results up early:
   Douglas, Bayfield, Polk, Dunn, Chippewa, Eau Claire, Marathon, Portage, Brown, Outagamie, Winnebagol, Trempeleau, LaCrosse, Monroe, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Washington, Ozaukee, Rock, Kenosha, Racine.

   Dane gets rural townships early, heavily Obama downtown Madison districts always come in last.

   Milwaukee, we’ll hopefully see enough improvement to have numbers by Weednesday morning.

   If you want to pick one early County as predictive of the rest, go with Rock. Slightly more favorable to Clinton than the State as a whole, so take the Rock result and add 4% to Obama.

   Key delegate County: Eau Claire

   Goes to Obama, but by how much?

   Split between Kind’s 3d District, and Obey’s. Obama’s close to getting 4 of the 6 delegates from each, but can’t without taking EC big. If Clinton has 46% here, she likely saves both delegates. Dunn’s also split between these CDs.

   • 

     colinski on February 19, 2008 at 5:24 pm

     That’s Winnebago, not Winnebagol.

     I expect exit polling will help the networks project the results despite unevenness in the reporting of results. They’ve hinted at their techniques, which probably incorporate the weighting formulas used by the pollsters. High turnout in Dane, Milwaukee, etc., will indicate that Obama is doing well. Better than expected results elsewhere along with higher than expected turnout in groups such as younger voters will also signal this.

3. 

   dane101 on February 19, 2008 at 3:38 pm

   Hi Booman Tribune! Thanks for the link.

   Sincerely,
   The contributors of dane101.com

4. 

   idredit on February 19, 2008 at 3:42 pm

   via TPM

   Philadelphia superdelegate endorses Obama

   “HARRISBURG, Pa. — Barack Obama has his wife to thank for his latest endorsement from one of Pennsylvania’s Democratic superdelegates.

   Carol Ann Campbell, a former Philadelphia city councilwoman, said she made up her mind Saturday after receiving a telephone call from the Illinois senator’s wife, Michelle.”

5. 

   idredit on February 19, 2008 at 4:32 pm

   Good coverage this from *Milwaukee Journal Sentinel& the paper that has endorsed Obama:

   articles from county to county  that gives kinda exit comments of voters why they voted the way they did. From my quick read, If these comments replicate, it’s close. Too close for comfort. Strategic voting going on.

    One voter went for Hillary because he wants to knock out Obama but will vote McCain in November.
   

   go read..scroll down page for county to county wraps.

   • 

     colinski on February 19, 2008 at 5:32 pm

     I’d love to hear why you think ‘raiding’ (i.e., strategic crossover voting) is going on. Wisconsin’s voting laws, in which one can show up, register and vote, makes it one of the most likely places for raiding at this point.

     • 

       idredit on February 19, 2008 at 5:43 pm

       that link in my comment….go read the various reports in each county what voters are saying why and how they voted.

   • 

     colinski on February 19, 2008 at 6:01 pm

     I see one former Democrat switched his registration because he was repulsed by Hillary — I hadn’t thought of that effect.

     • 

       idredit on February 19, 2008 at 7:50 pm

       they’re running out of ballots here

        City polling sites ask for more ballots      

       and Ambinder shares Wisconsin exit polls CBS:

       for what it’s worth

       his electorate is very white; only four in ten have a “college degree.” They’re “less affluent” than Dems in other states. The percentage of late deciders is declining: only 27% made up their minds within the last seven days.
       — Issue number one is, of course, the economy, followed by health care… adding the economy and health care brings you to nearly 70% of the electorate.
       — Change trumps experience, 52 to 24.
       — Very few first time voters — only 17%.
       — 27% of the electorate were independent
       — Clinton was seen as the most unfair attacker;
       — Obama (55%) was seen as the candidate most like to improve relations with the res tof the world.
       — Clinton and Obama are seen as equally qualified to be commander in chief (50% and 48%), while Obama draws 60% or more on the questions of who best can unite the country and beat the Republicans.

       • 

         RandyH on February 19, 2008 at 8:16 pm

         I just posted this in the other thread, but it’s appropriate here, too.

         Al Giordano over at The Field points to some early exit polls released by CBS online and did a little math:

         When it says that 57 percent of the voters are women and are voting 51 percent for Obama and 49 percent for Clinton, and that 43 percent of the voters are men and are voting 61 percent for Obama and 35 for Clinton, you can take out a calculator and add it all up:

         Obama: 29.07 + 26.23 = 55.3 percent
         Clinton: 27.93 + 15.05 = 42.98 percent

         In electoral politics, a landslide is defined as a victory of 10 points or more. That would be a lead of 12.32.

         Of course the post is named Caveat Emptor, but…

         • 

           idredit on February 19, 2008 at 8:37 pm

           thanks RandyH but I’ve seen so much number crunching that I’m numbed.

           soon we’ll see the real numbers.

         • 

           maryb2004 on February 19, 2008 at 8:42 pm

           Well, if they call it immediately after the polls close we’ll know it’s big.

         • 

           RandyH on February 19, 2008 at 8:47 pm

           I just tried to go back to the CBS link and they have shut the data off from view. Me thinks they had it up and on display early by accident. Whoops. Many people have been looking at it before they’re supposed to.