The best proof of the wisdom of the 50-state strategy is the results of SurveyUSA’s 50-state polling of Obama/McCain and Clinton/McCain matchups. Clinton defeats McCain 276-262 and Obama defeats McCain 280-258. Kos pulled out some notable states.
Arkansas: Clinton +11, Obama -20
Colorado: C -6, O +9
Florida: C +9, O -2
Hawaii: C +4, O +30
Idaho: C -36, O -13
Iowa: C -5, O +9
Michigan: C even, O +1
Minnesota: C +4, O +7Missouri: C -4, O -6
Montana: C -20, O -8
Nebraska: C -27, O -3 (and splitting the EVs of the state)
Nevada: C -8, O +5
New Hampshire: C -8, O +2
New Jersey: C +5, O even
New Mexico: C even, O +7
North Carolina: C -8, O -2North Dakota: C -19, O +4
Ohio: C +10, O +10
Oklahoma: C -8, O -23
Oregon: C -5, O +8
Pennsylvania: C +1, O -5
South Carolina: C -6, O -3
South Dakota: C -12, O -4
Tennessee: C even, O -16
Texas: C -7, O -1Utah: C -38, O -11
Virginia: C -10, O even
Washington” C -2, O +14
West Virginia: C +5, O -18
Wisconsin: C +4, O +11
Wyoming: C -33, O -19
What stands out to me is how well Obama is doing (relative to Clinton) in the states where he campaigned and she essentially did not. Most obvious is North Dakota, where Obama is winning, and Nebraska, where is able to win one of the electoral votes (Maine and Nebraska allow their electoral votes to be split). But Obama is making many other states competitive, like: Montana, South Dakota, Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. He’s winning several states that Clinton is losing, like: Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire.
Clinton still pulls out a win, based mainly on her strength in Florida, but it is a more tenuous win because her margins are smaller. Obama is more competitive in more states, leading me to believe that he’d get a larger popular vote and he’d have much better and broader coattails. The poll was taken before Clinton’s victories on Tuesday, so she may actually be stronger than these numbers suggest. Yet, in order to win the nomination she’d have to piss off half the Democratic Party so badly that I don’t think she’d win half the states the survey shows her winning today.
Obama is weakest in border states like Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia (the latter two, where he has not yet campaigned), where race is an issue and there are not enough black voters to compensate. He shows real breakthrough potential, however, in the free states of the West. And it is a big concern that Clinton is so weak in Washington, Oregon, Iowa, and New Hampshire.