Don’t ask me how I know (some sources simply can’t be revealed to protect them and their families against possible retaliation) but I have come into possession of a document which lists the major points to be delivered by General Petraeus today before Congress regarding the situation in Iraq. In no particular order, here they are (with my parenthetical editorial comments — i.e., what Petraeus won’t be talking about — in italics):
1. The Surge has been a Rousing Success.
The escalation of American troops into Iraq has led to a reduction in violence of astonishing proportions (as long as you only measure it during the period when Muqtada al-Sadr’s truce was in effect). We should all be very proud of our troops who have done a remarkable job bringing peace and freedom to the Iraqis (just ignore the lack of basic sanitation, clean water, electricity, and health care, combined with ethnic cleansing and a daily level of violence and other human rights violations against its citizens that any other country would find intolerable).
2. However, Despite That Success, We Must Not Withdraw All of Our “Surge” Troops Just Yet.
Because the success that the surge has created is fragile (expect to hear that word a lot), we cannot withdraw all the troops that were initially proposed for redeployment back to the States later this year. Thus we will need a pause (another word that will be repeated with great frequency) in the proposed withdrawal of our combat forces in order to stabilize (ditto) the security gains we have made. If we left now or at anytime in the near to midterm future, chaos would ensue and Al Qaida (mega-ditto) would gain a major base of operations in Iraq from which to attack us and our interests around the globe, including in the American heartland (a variation of “we’re fighting them over there so we don’t have to fight them over here” theme).
3. The Iraqi Government is moving Forward under the Strong Leadership of Prime Minister Maliki.
The Iraqi Government has made great progress under Prime Minister Maliki, and under his strong leadership a number of necessary laws have been passed, and Iraqi forces have improved to such a degree that they now control major portions of the country leaving US forces free to fight Al Qaida terrorists and Iranian backed militias and criminal gangs which still control some portions of the countryside (such as say, al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army which Maliki couldn’t dislodge from Basra or Sadr City even with the involvement of US ground forces and air attacks, and which may very well have more political support with the Shi’ite majority population than the parties and militias which make up Maliki’s coalition government).
4. The Recent and Temporary Increase in Fighting is All the Fault of Iran.
Any increased incidents of violence in the past few weeks is all the fault of Iran who has been supplying criminal gangs and unlawful militias (i.e., al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army) with small arms, rockets, mortars, EFP’s and other weaponry (the fact that Iran has also supplied the Badr Brigade, the major Shi’a militia which supports Maliki, which has infiltrated much of the Iraqi Army not based in Kurdistan, and which has closer ties to Iran than Muqtada al-Sadr, is beside the point). US forces have direct evidence that Iranian Quds force commanders were leading units of the Mahdi Army against Iraqi forces during the recent battle in Basra (just don’t expect much in the way of hard evidence for that claim). Iran is a state sponsor of terror in Iraq (which is why they no doubt brokered a cease fire deal between al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army forces and the Iraqi government) and until their influence is eliminated there they will continue to be the principle cause of violence in Iraq (except when it’s convenient to blame it all on Al Qaida, of course).
5. Conclusion: We Must Stay the Course to Win in Iraq.
And anyone who says different is undercutting our great nation’s support for the troops at a time when we are winning in Iraq.
(It’s not clear if the General will actually use the exact phrase “stay the course” but don’t be surprised if he or Ambassador Crocker repeat it in response to questions from the Senators before whom they will appear today. It’s also unclear if Petraeus or Crocker will define what constitutes “winning” or “victory” in Iraq, but don’t count on a clear, concise and unambiguous response to any question asking them to do so.)
There’s more devils in the details, of course, but those are the main points Petraeus will emphasize today. Now you don’t have to watch his testimony. Thanks to Booman Tribune, our crack team of plucky bloggers, and our network of connections within the US military and Intelligence communities.* Isn’t that great?
* In reality I pulled all this out of my ass (i.e., from my admittedly shaky memory of recent public proclamations by Bush officials, Pentagon spokespersons, and Petraeus himself regarding Iraq), but then, that’s what Petraeus and Crocker will do, too, so I don’t feel any remorse about it.
Ps. To get some idea what ordinary Iraqis actually think about the surge, Ambassador Crocker and General Petraeus, go here.
