Polls from Zogby and Temple University continue the trend of predicting a narrow Clinton victory in Pennsylvania. I just want to note that Zogby has really jettisoned his credibility by teaming up with Newsmax…..moving on…
Zogby finds:
Clinton wins 47% support to Obama’s 43% among likely Democratic primary voters, the survey shows. Another 2% are still holding out for someone else, while 8% said they are yet undecided.
Clinton enjoys strength in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, and central Pennsylvania, including Harrisburg, both regions of which are heavily populated by conservative Democrats. Obama enjoys an edge in the eastern part of the state, including Philadelphia.
Meanwhile, Temple U. gets to the heart of it.
As the Poll shows, supporters of the two candidates also may be motivated to vote by quite different considerations: Clinton supporters are more likely to have a history of voting, while Obama supporters are more engaged in this particular election. The difference is due partly to the age difference between the two groups—the average Obama supporter is seven years younger than the average Clinton supporter—and partly to the success of the Obama campaign in attracting the support of people with little political experience. “Habit and enthusiasm are both very important ingredients in getting people to the polls, and these camps have the two in different measures,” according to Hagen. “It will be fascinating to see how the differences between these coalitions and between these campaign organizations interact to determine the primary’s result.”
Habit versus enthusiasm. Which will win in the end?