In House campaigns, money isn’t everything. But you can get a pretty good sense for whether a race is competitive by looking at the fundraising numbers of the candidates. If a candidate raised six figures in the first quarter you can be sure that people think they have a real chance. If a candidate is raising more money than the incumbent, or has more money, those are also clear signals. By that measure, the Democrats are really applying an incredible amount of pressure on the Republicans. If you look at just the races that fit that profile in Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Florida it adds up to 19 seats. The Republicans are at risk for an historic beatdown of 1932 proportions. The last time I did an analysis I think I came up with about 70 competitive seats, but just a cursory glance at the new fundraising numbers shows me that there another 8-10 that were not previously on my radar. Add to that, that the Dems seem within reach of winning special elections in Mississippi and Louisiana, and watch out!!
Somehow I just don’t think McCain’s addled economic policy and strident saber-rattling is going to save the GOP from its much deserved fate.
We’ll see. If this all comes down, the interesting part will be seeing how the Republicans go about rebuilding.