Looking at the internals of the Quinnipiac Poll out this morning (Clinton 51%, Obama 44%) I’m seeing the one thing that I feared. Obama is set to win this state, but what’s standing in his way is overwhelming resistance in the Northeast and the Southwest.
Allegheny (Pittsburgh): Clinton 50%, Obama 44%
Philadelphia: Obama 54%, Clinton 41%
Northeast (Scranton): Clinton 69%, Obama 29%
Southeast (Philly Burbs): Obama 50%, Clinton 46%
Northwest (Erie): Clinton 52%, Obama 43%
Southwest: Clinton 68%, Obama 26%
Central (State College): Obama 50%, Clinton 44%
I have to say that these numbers do not look or feel right to me. If I were to guess the numbers in Philadelphia, I think Obama will easily clear 60% of the vote, and probably push 65%. In the Philly suburbs, I think it’s safe to say that Obama will reach the high 50’s at a minimum. Clinton might win Allegheny County, but I’ll be surprised. And if you told me that Obama was carrying the central part of the state and holding Clinton to 52% in the Northwest, I’d tell you that he was going to win in a walk.
But I don’t really have a feel for the Southwest and the Northeast. If Clinton is really carrying 70% there then there is a level of racial resistance to his campaign that I had feared but hoped would not materialize.
Here’s the upside to these internals. I cannot see any way that Obama could possibly do worse in the Southwest and the Northeast than he is doing in this poll. He can do worse in the Central part of the state and the Northwest, but he is almost assuredly going to do better than this poll in Philly, the Philly suburbs, and in Pittsburgh.
Not only that, but I think turnout in Philly and the Philly suburbs is going to be extraordinarily, disproportionately high.
In other words, I do not see Clinton winning by this margin and still see her victory to be at risk.
Update [2008-4-21 10:56:59 by BooMan]: We now have more internals from the Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll that is out this morning (Obama 49%, Clinton 46%).
Southwest: Clinton 51%, Obama 38%
Northeast: Clinton 65%, Obama 27%
Southeast: Obama 58%, Clinton 32%
West Central: Clinton 57%, Obama 31%
South Central: Obama 52%, Clinton 39%
Before you get too excited about these numbers, the internals also show that this poll is predicting that the Southeast will make up 45% of the total electorate. I don’t have numbers at my fingertips to assess the plausibility of that assumption but as I said yesterday, these differential regional turnout projections are the real key to predicting the outcome of the race. I do expect crazy ass turnout in the Southeast, I just don’t know if 45% of the electorate is a reasonable expectation.
However, these regional breakouts look a lot more in keeping with my sense for the state than the Quinnipiac numbers. In particular, the high fifties numbers for the Southeast look about right.
Race is the problem. It has been and will continue to be the problem. Tragically, It will be the stumbling block that can’t be overcome in the general election. Your fear is well founded.
What a sad state of affairs.
I’m still of a mind that she’s going to bring a crappy message to Larry King & even Countdown tonight that Obama will be unable to counter and it will play in for a couple of critical pts.
But he’ll also get a Daily Show bounce tonight, which will likely offset that, at least among Clinton-leaning youth (and yes, there are a few).
Check the new PPP poll that Al Rogers just posted at dKos. Enormous sample size (2400), ad they’ve got Obama winning by three points, 49-46%, +/- 2. PPP, for the record, is the most accurate pollster of this election, even more so than SUSA.
PPP was also the big dog on Ohio polling, by the way, so maybe they’ve got a better model for this region of the country.
thanks for this upbeat. Polls are so varied..look to sample size.
Right. This is an enormous sample by any standard, which is why I’ve got my eye on it. Most of the polls we’re seeing are 600-800LVs.
I updated the post to reflect my observations on the internals of this poll.
Ah, yes, the internals on PPP look a lot more like what I expected, with my only bit of questioning being on the size of the turnout by region. I’ll take the PPP internals, and it comes down to how jacked up the Southeast will be.
I’m not an immediate taker of the “undecideds will go to Clinton” view. Clinton is still the incumbent there, and I think undecideds are likely to be close.
I think that the first line of your update is intended to be “Northwest” rather than “Southwest,” which appears later on in the list. Hope you’re having fun out there.
The media is running with the expectations that Clinton Needs Record Margins, Record Turnout to Catch Obama
That’s Bloomberg, though. The FT is doing similar reporting in its endorsement of Obama this morning. I’m not a big fan of the financial news outlets, but those two are pretty reliable ones, and it’s not surprising they’d focus on the mathematics rather than the narrative. I don’t expect the rest of the media to follow their lead.
Up until last night I might have agreed with you, but my girlfriend heard something interesting from her mother who lives near Harrisburg. He mom has been receiving mailings and phone calls from the Clinton campaign for quite a while, with only one mailing from Obama.
Either she is only on the list given to Clinton, or the Obama campaign has not been doing their job in areas that they might have given up on.
Make that “I might have agreed with you on the racial issue”
Off topic – Cindy McCain is guest hosting on The View right now. Man, she creeps me out with those husky eyes and taut, Stepford Wife face….
Could someone in the Obama campaign please teach Barack how to play the expectations game? He’s out telling people it’s going to be close, and that they’re going to do better than many expected. Even if he believes that to be true, Axelrod needs to smack upside the head and say Lie, you idiot.
But aren’t people more motivated to go vote if they think their vote my make the difference for their candidate?
Yes, but what he should’ve said was, “Well, we were down twenty just two weeks ago, and I think we’ve closed a good bit of the gap. It’ll be close if we do a good-enough job of getting folks to the polls.”
Good analysis.
When SUSA came out with it’s last Missouri poll I knew it was wrong, but I just had no way of knowing if where it was wrong was going to offset any strength she had in the rest of the state. But I knew it was going to be much closer than predicted. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that it happens again.
Although, really, I always thought he could win Missouri and have never thought he would win PA. So a close one would be a victory as far as I’m concerned. But a real victory … that might just do the trick and knock her out.
What’s the weather report for tomorrow over the state?
I believe in the 70s, minor chance of precipitation.
Let’s hope the precipitation happens in the part of the state Hillary needs 😉
Much like Obama’s surprise win in Missouri, he will make Penn. a dead heat. A remarkable show of strength after bein 20% points down.
Clinton’s internal polling, per her bff Matt Drudge, has her winning by 11 points. What do y’all make of that? Real/Fake/Right/Wrong?
It’s stupid…raising expectations is the last thing the Clinton team should be doing.
I’m thinking it may be fake, actually. It may be a kind of last-ditch effort to pump her supporters up.
I check out the Drudge report daily.
Far from being a pro-Clinton site, it has been baldly hyping Obama’s chances for many months….I surmise on the orders of the BushCo/Rovians who want nothing more than to get their talons on Obama and fear an angry and powerful President Hillary Clinton with a blood grudge the way rats fear a hungry hawk.
If that headline is accurate, I’ll bet higher than I did earlier.
Clinton by 12 points.
Watch.
This thing is not over by a long shot.
Watch.
AG
I made a comment about how much a while back a about how much of Hillary’s campaign money is available for the the primary. It appears her numbers were inflated, because she can only spend 9 million for the primary, even-though she has 32 million sitting in the bank.
She’s in debt and will be hurting to proceed after Penn.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
Hurting?
Not if she wins by double digits she won’;t.
Watch and learn.
The money flows toward the winner of anyindividual battle.
Watch.
AG
You have too much invested in this idea, Booman. You are beginning to resemble a classic machine supporter yourself. I’m tellin’ ya…she has the rural and suburban vote tied up. Plus those parts of the state…Scranton, York, etc…that truly reside south of the Manson-Nixon line.
Watch.
She’s not through by a long shot.
AG
I find it very amusing for you to be criticizing someone of being a ‘machine supporter’ looking too closely at the numbers while droning on about how fantastic Hillary is going to do tomorrow – despite all evidence to the contrary.
I predict you are going to feel very silly about your comments here tomorrow.
Watch.
Hillary is going to squeak by with a 2-3 point victory and her last chance to really change the math will have vanished.
She’s finished.
Watch harder dammit!
Frankly, I hope that you are right.
I am not a Hillary Clinton supporter. Neither am I a Hillary Clinton basher.
What I am is a fairly rational observer of media hype and its effects on the Great American Sleeple, and I am here to tell you that the silent white middle is going to go Clinton’s way.
So it goes.
AG
I think Obama will squeak out a win of <2%. If Rendell got somewhere between 35-40% of the Philly/SE vote, Obama will get somewhere between 40-45% of the vote. Don’t forget all of the new voters.
The ‘hometown’ effect in Scranton can’t be dismissed, so attributing her lead there to racism is a bit of a broad brush. They identify with her, not necessarily only against him. Not to say there aren’t racists. But if Obama had spent a few summers in Scranton, who knows?