Whatever the ultimate meaning of the results in the PA primary, Tuesday night the TV pundits will be making their judgments based on the percentage of victory.
Both campaigns are trying to set expectations, but clearly the Clinton campaign must regard any margin of victory as a huge vindication, and a reason to go on.
But an analysis on Bloomberg.com should bring a little reality check to the meaning of PA. Many have pointed out that it is almost impossible for Clinton to surpass Obama in elected delegates. But one factor some in her campaign have suggested might break her way is the popular vote. The Bloomberg report looks at that. And it’s conclusions are devastating.
Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow — a landslide few experts expect — she would still have a hard time catching him.”
The story goes into excruciating detail of what that means:
Clinton would need a 25-point victory in Pennsylvania, plus 20-point wins in later contests in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Even that scenario assumes Clinton, 60, would break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon — a prospect that’s not at all certain.
More than just big margins, Clinton would need record voter turnout too. In Pennsylvania, she would need a turnout of 2 million, about half the state’s registered Democrats; in the 2004 primary, about 800,000 voted. She would also need turnout to almost double in other states where she leads, and reach some 1 million in Puerto Rico, which is about how many Democratic- leaning voters went to the polls in a 2004 gubernatorial election.
That’s more than a mountain to climb–that’s walking to the moon. And maybe without shoes–because the one bit of news Sunday night was the fundraising numbers the campaigns had to file by midnight. According to official numbers, Obama started April with $42.5 million cash for the primaries. A spokesperson for the Clinton campaign there said they started April with about $8 million it could spend on primaries.
So what are the pundits going to say Monday and Tuesday? That she needs a 10 point victory, or any victory to stay in? Or are they going to say that realistically she needs a 25 point victory in PA?