There has been extraordinary turnout in early voting for the North Carolina primary, which is now cut off until Tuesday. A total of 398,635 people have cast a ballot in the Democratic primary (82% of the total voters). Let’s see if we can make an educated guess about how they voted. Here’s the actual demographic breakdown of the early vote.
% of Early Voters
Men 39%
Women 61%White 57%
Black 40%White Women 33%
White Men 23%Democrat 84%
Unaffiliated 16%
For one estimate we can look at the Pennsylvania exit polls and plug those numbers into the different demographics of the Tarheel State. In Pennsylvania, Obama won the black vote 90%-10%. White Democrats and Independents voted for Clinton at a 63%-37% clip. Other races made up 6% of the vote, which is too small of a sample to have any exit poll percentages. Using those numbers, this is what we get for the early voting in North Carolina.
Total votes= 398,635
Total white vote (57%)= 227,222
Total black vote (40%)= 159,454
Total non-white, non-black vote (3%)= 11,959Estimated White Vote (C- 63%, O- 37%)
Clinton= 143,150
Obama= 84,072Estimated Black Vote (C- 10%, O- 90%)
Clinton= 15,945
Obama= 143,509Estimated Non-White/Non-Black Vote (C- 50%, O- 50%)
Clinton= 5,980
Obama= 5,979Estimated total vote
Clinton= 165,075 (41.4%)
Obama= 233,560 (58.5%)
Some additional considerations could change these numbers. In Pennsylvania, 58% of the electorate was female. In North Carolina, that number is sixty-one percent. That could help Clinton, especially in her numbers among whites. Additionally, while the Reverend Wright flap was a major factor in the Pennsylvania primary, it took place prior to Wright’s recent antics. Nevertheless, it looks like women and blacks are both fired up and were motivated to vote early. Based on the demographic makeup of the early voters, it looks like Obama will start off with about a 17% lead. However, the election day electorate may very well be more male and less black, as it represents a lower-motivated subset of the total electorate. That, on balance, will probably mean that Clinton will do better on election day than she did in early voting.
Still, an approximate lead of 17% is a pretty nice cushion.
I hope he kicks her butt and wins by 80%…I can dream
If the late voters are more male, they may be less blind to Hillary’s obvious faults.
Bill Clinton in Lenoir, NC – what’s up with him?
This AP item: After 2 faint, Clinton cracks joke about making ’em swoon
Where is Nancy Pelosi when you need a comment?
Pelosi’s tag for Bill was spot on.
Just…ew!
He needs to sit down and STFU. Pathetic old lech is NOT a good look.
17% sounds good to me.
I should note that in Pennsylvania, Obama only lost ‘white independents’ 52%-48%, but because it was a closed primary (meaning only registered Democrats could vote) only 11% of the electorate were white voters who identified themselves as independents. So, overall, he lost the white vote 63%-37%.
In North Carolina it is quite possible that ‘white independents’ including unaffiliated voters, will be a larger percentage of the overall percentage of white voters. This could theoretically mean that Obama does better than 37% with the white vote.
However, racial polarization is stronger in North Carolina than in Pennsylvania, so it may not turn out that way.
I agree that racial polarization (bias, racism) has been more overt in the South.
I wonder, however, what would happen if you factored out ‘Appalachia’ from both states, what discriminating factors might remain? Probably would involve post-hoc analyses of actual congressional districts from Georgia to PA.
If you take out Appalachia, I think you’ll find Obama at or near a majority of whites in most of those states. Undoubtedly in Georgia, where he nearly got a majority, and Virginia, where he got the majority anyway.
You may have a point, Drew. In SE Pennsylvania, Obama took Lancaster and Dauphin counties (mostly white voters) and almost took (53-47) Cumberland County (nearly all white voters), north and west of which are the mountains, rural areas, and rustbelt towns that Clinton took (except the two counties around Penn State).
I stood in line for about 40 minutes when I voted in North Raleigh on Friday. It was split about 70/30 white/black, which is typical for the neighborhood I was in. What stood out to me was the number of young voters, maybe even first-timers like my son who was with me. Seems like the other times I voted there were hardly any young’uns. I’m making the assumption they were mostly for Obama, because, frankly, I don’t think young people are getting fired up about Clinton. I hope they turn out in a big way on Tuesday.
I was really surprised to see white kids from a nearby very expensive private school standing in line. I always figured they were the kids of rich republicans…maybe they are!
I think a lot of “kids” are totally disgusted with what they have seen for the last few years and are voting in record numbers. They seem to hate the divisive politics and want to actually see something happen for a change.
Lots of imponderables here, Boo Man. I’m just keeping my fingers crossed and quietly praying for America and Obama.
Are the uncommitted super-delegates waiting for Hillary Clinton to drop out because they are afraid to get their ass of the fence?
Reuters has this nugget:
She has the best shot! more like my horse’s sheared mane on the barn floor –
This new CBS/NYT Poll:
Support For Obama Rebounds
In Wake Of Controversy Over Former Pastor, Illinois Senator Builds Lead Over McCain, Clinton
I wouldn’t be that concerned. 61% was the percentage of women who voted in South Carolina, and we know how that turned out.
Tom Hanks endorsed Obama today.