Barack rocked Indianapolis last night, with 21,000 showing up to see Stevie Wonder as a warm-up act. Meanwhile, in Indiana, crossover Republican voting is huge, but it cuts both ways.
At the Broad Ripple center, nearly 400 voters — of 1,800 registered in the two precincts — had turned out in the first few hours of voting. Among them was Meghan Ward-Bopp, 24, who went against family tradition and asked for Democratic ballot so she could vote for Barack Obama; she plans to vote for Republican John McCain in November.
“I’m a hardcore Republican,” she said, “but it’s about who I wanted in second place in case McCain doesn’t make it. … I don’t like the way this country’s been run in the last 20 years. I’m sick of the dynasty (of two families) that’s been running things.”
Ward-Bopp voted for the Democrat she liked, but Jim Adams, 36, voted for Hillary Clinton to keep the race going beyond Indiana. He’s a McCain backer and enjoys watching the Democrats fight.
“In the end, I think McCain is going to win,” Adams said, and then referred to controversial statements by Bill Clinton and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama’s pastor. “Bill can’t keep his mouth shut, and the reverend can’t keep his mouth shut.”
In Indiana, all you have to do to vote Democratic is ask for the Democratic ballot. That makes it a simple matter for Republicans to mess with the result. However, the majority of Republicans are going to vote for someone, not against them. In the end, this factor will probably benefit Clinton slightly (if SurveyUSA is to be believed).
Also, keep an eye on the gubernatorial primary between Democrats, Jim Schellinger and Jill Long Thompson.
In North Carolina, everything depends on turnout. Larger turnout may not actually be beneficial to Obama for a change because he has built in a huge lead among early voters. At least, demographically, it appears that way, with 40% of early voters being African-American. The lower that number sinks, the lower Obama’s ultimate margin of victory. I have Obama winning 54%-46% with 31% black turnout. At 40%, my model predicts a 59%-41% blowout.
Reports of gorgeous weather throughout North Carolina indicate that there will be no obstacle to getting to the polls. Estimates are that 1.5 million people will vote in the Democratic primary. There are contested primaries for Governor (Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore) and Senator (Jim Neal and Kay Hagan). Both women are favored to win, but it will be interesting to see how Neal, who is openly gay, does in his race.
For post-poll closing North Carolina coverage, make sure to drop by Blue NC and Pam’s House Blend tonight. You can check the results here.
Got any on the ground reports or news stories?
