So Booman writes me in a comment on my latest diary So I’m Crazy About the Hillary/VP Idea, Eh? Pt. II-So’s Obama.–
Wanna place some money on it, AG?
OK.
Read on for the terms and for my reasoning as well.
Want me to bet?
I’m on, but I’m making it a three part setup.
1st bet-I will bet that Hillary Clinton ends up the VP nominee w/Obama. Why? Because she just about tied him in the primaries. This is not a ballgame where one run decides the victor; it’s an election primary where two parties are trying to field a ticket that will bring in the most votes. Duh. Hopefully there are in pros in positions of power…and I do NOT mean Chappaquiddick Ted…who understand the realities of the situation outside of the areas of this country that can be swayed by WAPO and the NY Times. Like…everywhere between the East Coast megalopolis and LA/SF…
plus every voter belonging to every family that does not pull in something substantially in excess of about $80K/year and also does not have a vested interest in seeing a President in office who is not a run-of-the-mill WASP.
2nd bet (Since I am quite sure that Obama is not as prescient as I am and is probably surrounded by deluded, kneejerk anti-Hillary leftiness shmoon who share his own self-image as the Anointed One.)-I will bet that if he does NOT run w/HRC on the ticket the election will go right down to the wire; the Ratpubs will have a good shot at stealing the third one in row if they do not win it outright and if he does win he will not have a solid ruling majority in Congress and will probably be as hamstrung as was Jimmy Carter.
3rd bet-If he does run w/HRC they will win by a landslide…the largest majority since 1964, when Goldwater got his ass handed to him by LBJ. Justification for this belief? She will attract HORDES of people who would otherwise have voted for McCain.
A case could be made that it is the over-40, middle class and below white voter who has been the swing vote in the U.S. for the last 50 years. Is that situation changing as the demographics of the country change?
Sure.
Has it changed already?
I would hate to have to find out that it has not yet changed on pain of dealing w/McCain in the driver’s seat for whatever part of four years it would take for nuclear war to erupt.
Wouldn’t you?
Watch.
Name your terms for this bet, Booman. Gotta include all three sections though, because from the look on Obama’s face…
I’m thinkin’ that yon Young Messiah done missed Malcolm’s point about chickens coming home to roost in the midst of all of the happily frenzied chicken herding that has been going on in his own backroom meetings.
Peace.
It’s only what’s for dinner if it gets cooked well.
AG
You read it here first.
AG
Imagine that a little start-up fast-food company came up with a plan to not only grab the biggest market share for burgers, shakes and fries, but to drive McDonald’s right out of business.
Imagine that they did it by offering ecologically friendly food and healthier fare.
Now imagine that they agreed to buy out the bankrupt McDonalds and offer half their menu on the theory that they could do better by attracting some of the diehards that had not switched over from Big Macs?
Would that not ruin their brand?
You seem to have no cognizance for why the most powerful machine in American politics just got their asses handed to them.
That “little fast food” company is owned and controlled by the same folks who own McDonald’s, Booman.
Can you not see that?
Kucinich was not.
Lookit what happened.
Dean was not 4 years ago.
Lookit what happened.
This is just McDonald’s Green.
C’mon, man.
Wake up.
It’s branding.
AG
I’ve been awake the whole time. You told me over and over again how savvy the Clintons were, how only they understood the game, that they the superdelegates in the bag, and that Obama was in for a world of pain.
I told you that the Clintons were running a Flintstones campaign in a Jetsons world and they had no idea what they were going to get hit with. Jesus. How much worse is John McCain?
Everything about Obama’s campaign is different. Yes, especially the people behind it. One side has Bradley and Hart and Carter, the other side has Ferraro, Koch, and Mondale. You do the math.
It is only a little more than 1/2 a “Jetsons” world, Booman. And that’s just 1/2 of about 1/3 of the U.S. voting “world” as it pertains to the coming election.
1/3 Republican, 1/3 Dem, 1/3 basically uncommitted. (Or substantially less than 1/3 on the Dem side and more on the Rat side if the results of the Presidential campaigns since Truman are any indication.)
Let’s use 1/3rd as a number for convenience’s sake
Obama and Clinton split 1/3rd of the vote blocs in this country just about evenly.
The Rats will still get their guaranteed rat portion in the general election.
1/3rd.
So will the Dems, with or without either Clinton OR Obama.
So…who’s gonna get what portion of that OTHER third? And who’s gonna bring in the so-called “new” voters? YOU know…the ones who have felt totally disenfranchised for a century or more? (Hint hint…)
Well…Obama’s got the racial minority vote, pretty much. Except for the hispanic vote, which seems to belong at least for now to Hillary. And he also has some portion of the so-called youth vote, if indeed they can get their heads out of each others’ asses and their video games to go and vote at all. Which means that all alone, if he can win some appreciable part of the swing vote 1/3rd he can get elected.
But…CAN he?
I do not think so.
On personal experience in the vast hinterlands.
In the living rooms of my white rural New England working class family.
In bars and airports and bus stations and restaurants and diners, in waiting rooms and motels and Dunkin’ Donuts and everywhere else that Fox News spews its nasty poison.
EVERYWHERE in this country.
He’s too…smart.
And too black.
FORGET about Rev. Wright. Michelle is all’s they’re gonna need to see to vote for McCain.
Bet on it.
Sorry. There it is. from Wisconsin to Mississippi, from Oregon to Maine and from Arizona to Georgia. Wherever Fox News is watched in banks and dentist’s offices.
But with Ma Clinton standing next to him radiating good, solid white mediocrity? (Not that she is at ALL “mediocre”. She just has a really good…although late developing…dumb act.) He’s GOT ’em!!!
I’m not savoring a gamble this time.
Sorry.
Been there.
Hold your nose if you must, but put Hillary in as VP or risk a serious chance of losing.
Your bet, Booman.
You bet your life with this one.
Mine too.
Bet on it.
AG
P.S. “…they [The Clinton campaign] had no idea what they were going to get hit with???!!!”
What exactly DID they get “hit with?”
As of today, here’s the popular vote primary news:
Ummm…you’re talking as if he steamrollered her.
C’mon, Booman.
Had she run a 3% better campaign (Which she did plus some in the last couple of months.) SHE’D be the fucking nominee.
Some steamroller.
It involves branding.
But it is more.
P.S. “The most powerful machine in American politics” is the media.
They are in the process of changing the government at the behest of their bosses, the most powerful machine in America.
Corporate Money, Inc.
Ma Clinton is not only not anathema to those people.
She is insurance.
Watch.
AG
The effing media can’t make up their mind what they want. They have priapism for John McCain, hate Hillary Clinton, and think every body in the country is a closet racist. They neither know shit, or what shit they want. The only thing you can count on is that they will spend this entire campaign with their collective dicks in their hands wondering why the polls aren’t moving anymore when they tell them to move.
P.P.S. As Aunt Mae so eloquently put is several generations ago …”Goodness had nothing to do with it.” (See my sig.)
Or in the words of Succinct But Silent Cal: “The business of America is business.”
Yup.
Watch.
The real wiseguys know what’s up.
Watch.
With Ma Clinton right behind him Obama would be forced to have second thoughts about any Bay of Pigs-type resistances on ANY level unless of course he has a serious case of martyr complex. There is a Dealy Plaza in every city if you fuck with these people, and fallguys are a dime a dozen and already Lee Harvey Oswalded into the system.
Bet on it.
Paranoid?
Ask Real History Lisa how paranoid that is.
I leave you with William Burroughs’s definition of a paranoid:
Yup.
Watch.
Only…don’t watch the news. You won’t see it there. NEWSTRIKE!!! You of all people would be bettah off.
If not…sweet dreams.
Everyone needs a fantasy life.
AG
Hi Arthur.
I know that you feel the force in you and believe you have the Democratic slate picked already.
Wrong. Obama could not conceivably run the country with Hillary (and BILL) at his side, interrupting and so forth.
The Clintons have had their stay in the Whitehouse. That’s it. You only get one bite on the apple. And Bill took a big one when he bet the castle on a blow job or two.
Have you no shame, Hillary. For the sake of gaining the presidency, you stood by Bill because you had no choice except to keep the first lady role going.
I agree that their presence would be a possible drawback in some ways
But it would also be an advantage. Done right, it would shorten his learning curve by a year or two, plus she could be the (lightning) rod that spares the child (President).
We shall see…
AG
Hope you two can wager something more interesting than money!
.
…
Consider when 2004 voters were asked what issue mattered most in deciding whom to support. White men who voted Republican said they supported the candidate who “has clear stands on the issues” (30 percent), is a “strong leader” (31 percent), or is “honest and trustworthy” (18 percent). This is why I emphasize in my book that “grit” is the value underlying all values politics. This is especially true for the white men who Democrats lost.
Meanwhile, of those white men who voted for John Kerry: five percent valued that their candidate was a “strong leader,” 10 percent valued most that he had “clear stands on the issues,” and nine percent said is “honest and trustworthy.” White men, like white women, are not one monolith. Yet in the general election, the patterns shared by all those white men who left Democrats will have to be considered by the political left.
Those white males who supported Kerry most valued the personal qualities of a candidate who “will bring about needed change” (47 percent), is intelligent (17 percent), and “cares about people like me” (13 percent). That “change” ranked so high on the list explains Obama’s appeal, at least in part.
1987 – Study Sees Tough Battle For Swing Vote in South
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Polls like this are absolutely meaningless.
NO ONE tells the truth, because almost no one really knows why they vote for one person over the other.
“Change”? “Leadership?” “Grit?”
Branding. Nothing more. Media-generated hallucinations.
What the fuck.
Vote for John Fucking Wayne, then.
Oh.
That’s what happened with Reagan.
And both poisonous Bushes.
Sorry.
Nevermind.
Emily
Oh Arthur, give it up man. All you’ve done here is sheer wild speculation while wearing half a tin-foil hat. But then you’re wagering in digital dollars.
“NO ONE tells the truth, because almost no one really knows why they vote for one person over the other.”
What convoluted thinking is this?
Give us some credit.
Give Obama credit – he’s not insane. There ain’t gonna be no wedding with Hillary…too, too many insults have been thrown to be invited as a bride. It’s the people who own the Obama movement and any joint ticket will be a betrayal.
On to specifics.
Age is a negative -he has appeared disoriented and confused.
Frankly after 20 years in government, there’s not enough time to bring McCain up to speed. He’s a very weak candidate.
“Give us some credit?”
WHICH “us” idredit?
Even the committed political junkies don’t make much sense most of the time as far as I am concerned , and the man in the street? Joe Sixpack and his wife Hattie?
Sorry.,..no sale.
And you want credit for sanity?
He’s not marrying her…he’s trying to win an election.
Insults?
That’s politics.
He knows it, and so does she.
Shit, idredit!!! Just look at McCain cozying up to the Bushies for all you need to know about that. They cut his LEGS off in 2000.
What? You think Dems are different?
And you want sanity credits?
Please.
No Virginia, there Is no Sanity Clause.
Not in this system there ain’t.
SPECIFICS!!!
Show me. I dare ya.
C’mon. Where did you pull THAT number out of? Your ass? I’ll bet you were one of the Edwards believers and had numbers for him too.
You mean…Bush II was a better candidate?
I think not, and 8 years later we are thoroughly fucked.
I got one word fer ya, and it ain’t gofuckyerself.
REAGAN.
He is 5 times the candidate that Bush was.
See above about the 8 years later thing.
Yer talkin’ outta yer ass, idredit.
Go home and pray for rain.
AG
What a load of crap.
AG, listen up. This is cyberspace and you have no idea about the persons who sit behind their monikers…their background, experience and or connections. You have no idea.
US and Them are easy categories, simplistic.. And you’re clearly not interested in specifics, otherwise known as credible facts.jmnhhhhhhhhy!
What’s next for Clinton:
She’s too proud to accept the VP slot from the punk kid offering fairy tales. Not a good fit. What would Bill do?
But you’ve been 95% wrong on everything this primary season. Trying to make it 96%? 🙂
95% wrong?
Specifics?
AG