On Tuesday, while most the the world will be focused on the now meaningless outcome of the West Virginia primary, most Republicans will be focused on a special House election in the First District of Mississippi. The Democrats are running a very conservative candidate named Travis Childers against a much more conservative candidate named Greg Davis. The district came open when Roger Wicker was tapped to serve in Trent Lott’s senate seat. A few weeks ago Childers came about 500 votes short of gathering a majority and winning the seat outright.
That outcome astonished political analysts because Wicker won reelection in 2006 with 66% of the vote and Bush carried the district over Kerry with 62% of the vote. The Democrats won a much less conservative (but still quite conservative) seat in Louisiana last week. Before that, the Democrats won a special election in former Speaker Dennis Hastert’s old seat. If the Republicans lose their third special election in a row, there is going to be full blown panic.
Rank-and-file Republicans say that would force a day of reckoning for their leadership.
“When you connect three dots in anything, that’s a bad thing. This connects the dots. At that point, everybody’s got to come together and have a come-to-Jesus meeting,” said Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a retiring centrist who will help form a new advisory panel at the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“It’s a time of sober reflection and, to some extent, resolve. I hope these special elections are a wake-up call,” said Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Tex.), the leader of the conservative Republican Study Committee.
It’s will also demonstrate for the second time in three weeks that Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi are not political vulnerabilities even is very conservative districts.
This is the second special election this month in which House Republicans have tried to turn the race into a referendum on a Democratic candidate’s ties to Obama. The strategy was unsuccessful in Louisiana, but Republicans view the Mississippi district as more receptive because it is slightly more conservative and has fewer African American voters.
If the Democrats fail to win this seat, it won’t be a big surprise. It’s always been a long-shot. But when combined with the big Obama loss in West Virginia, it would add weight to the argument that Obama has some kind of problem winning to the white vote. Conversely, if the Democrats win this seat in spite of the Republican attacks, it will help offset any unease arising from the West Virginia results. So, even if you are not comfortable with Childers positions on abortion and immigration (and, I’m certainly not) you might find it in your best interests to contribute or volunteer for Childers campaign. Swing State Project has a good rundown on the state of the race on the ground. One good thing I can say about Childers is that we will be a fair/good vote on Iraq, medical coverage, and fair trade. In this blood red district, and with these consequences, it might just be worth your while to lend a hand. Another loss like this for the GOP should also, finally, lead them to seriously consider making a final split with Bush.
George Will agrees that the MS-01 is big.
An aside: How many coincidences can there be with the WVWV group?
Whoops-a-daisy!
What would change if the GOP made a final split with Bush, and why would we care?
we might actually pass some legislation this year. At a minimum.
We also might get more cooperation in hearings and subpoenas.
We might get timelines on Iraq.
At some point they are going to realize the need to strongly distance/disapprove of Bush’s policies.
McCain certainly is not providing any leadership, however.
Or, conversely, they could hunker down and bunker up and go for broke in full attack mode, pulling a Ben Franklin: “If we do not hang together, we shall surely hang separately.”
I’m going to say that it might be better if Childers loses for two reasons, one is that he’ll almost certainly turn out to be another Bush Dog Democrat and I’m tired of them stabbing us in the back.
The other reason it ff the blogs are right about this being a 1964 style realignment of the entire political cosmos, then a GOP that sees Greg Davis go down in a district like MS-01 will decide that it has nothing left to lose. They’d have several months left to do something like you said, deciding to go with us against Bush.
But given that level of despair, they may only redouble their efforts and decide that cloaking the GOP in Iranian bodies and American flags may be a risk worth taking politically. If they decide with Davis going down that no district is safe and it’s going to be a bloodbath figuratively, they may decide making it literal is the only hope they have left.
I’m just saying there’s a bigger picture here. Childers will probably lose. But if he doesn’t, a lot of GOP folks are going to start seriously listening to Cheney and his ilk as the last shot they have left.
If Childers does win, they may decide “fuck it” and then decide to fuck all of us.
Actions, reactions.
Off-topic outrage: Oh Christ! This morning Jeralyn is saying that Obama should throw in the towel in exchange for being the head of Clinton’s civil rights division in her Justice Department.
Remember that she’s been riding the Rezko story as a reason to not support Obama.
And isn’t that a tad bit racist? You know, let’s put the black guy as head of the civil rights division. The guy who isn’t qualified to be the CinC.
If you want to hear –see–racism, go to no quarter! It is running very rabid over there. They have actually stated that they do not want any Obama supporters over there to debate the issues of such. They are really racist and nuts. It is hard to believe that ppl that I actually respected are in that position. This is just plain outright silly, IMHO. They are burning their own integrity for the sake of this election. I wonder what they will be like after the general election is over. I shudder to even begin to think of it. What little respect I had for Susan and Larry is almost gone down the drain, in this regard.
Larry Johnson… as far as I can throw him. That’s how much.
From wiki:
“Larry C. Johnson is a former intelligence officer of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, where he served for four years, until 1989, when he became deputy director for transportation security, antiterrorism assistance training, and special operations in the State Department’s Office of Counterterrorism, until October 1993. He is the CEO of BERG Associates, LLC (Business Exposure Reduction Group) and is an expert in the fields of terrorism, aviation security, and crisis and risk management. He has worked as a private consultant on issues of international terrorism and has appeared as a consultant and commentator in many major newspapers and news programs.”
From a quick scan, someone whose career in the CIA as an intelligence officer bloomed during the Reagan-Bush years is not a ringing endorsement to me, especially considering GHW Bush’s history of “counterterrorism” (Letelier et al). Working for the CIA’s “antiterrorism assistance training” and “special operations” usually means having our people torture and kill their people (think Negroponte).
From BERG’s website:
“BERG Associates bring broad experience in the fields of risk assessment, physical security, and counter terrorism to the task of evaluating potential risks for financial institutions and businesses. We know from experience that well-designed security systems and procedures are effective deterrents to a broad range of threats. A metal detector, for example, prevents people carrying guns from getting on board an airplane regardless of whether the culprit is a terrorist or a suicidal maniac.
“Training and preparation also provide a critical resource to helping preserve and protect facilities and personnel.
“BERG Associates have directed a variety of security assessments and projects, including:
“A comprehensive assessment of the Luis Marin International Airport in Puerto Rico.
“An evaluation of the Ecuadorian National Police Intervention and Rescue Group (GIR).
“An assessment of the U.S. Government’s intelligence databases on chemical and biological agents.
“A preliminary assessment of Mexico City’s International Airport.
“Intelligence operations to thwart terrorist attacks in Bolivia and Colombia.
“Trained foreign teams in executive protection.”
+++
I am reminded of a song by Joe “King” Carrasco, “Who Buys The Guns.” The song goes, “Who buys the guns to kill the nuns? We did.” Johnson could not have the career he’s had without getting dirty along the way. So he’s comfortable with racism. That’s probably the least of his sins.
I thought Larry Johnson had gotten a little sense last I heard. I wonder what happened to the guy? It is just Obama?
this so-called “final split with bush” was supposed to have happened when bush “decidered” to wipe his ass with the iraq study group report. and it was supposed to have happened each time general petraeus kicked that can further down the road.
but to this date the republicans have shown no credible sign — in the form of tangible legislative action — that they have either the will or any basic sense of self-preservation to unlash themselves from the deck of their titanic.
even newt gingrich only half gets it, but they’re not listening to him:
… not even for mother’s day.
so ahab is fully determined to not let that beast get away, and i say: good riddance to both.
My good friend is running a campaign for a fairly safe republican house member. I keep telling him to keep the election local and resist any attempts by the RNC or NRCCC to make it a national election. I warn him about the wave coming this fall and he is not oblivious to it but the bubble some of these Hill types work in is scary.
The GOP keeps complaining about their awful “brand” but do nothing to change it except keep supporting the policies of this heavily unpopular president.
Did anyone see this article on Voter ID in Missouri? It could have a huge impact in the fall.
http://www.fortmilltimes.com/124/story/160253.html
Good article. Yep, this issue isn’t going away because the GOP apparently think it’s just too effin’ brilliant to fail — and they might be right. We just have to find a way to outsmart them on it.
This is a hugely symbolic contest, and it’s gonna be an actual fight — hard to believe. As a Mississippian, I don’t usually take any real interest in MS politics because I’m too latte-sucking liberal for it to matter. But a Dem’s a Dem this cycle, I’m thinking, and the Republicans are dumping buttloads of cash (millions, actually) in here that they need to spend in other places to hold a seat which should be WAY safe in the first place. We’re talkin’ about Tupelo fer cryin’ out loud! And Dick Cheney’s even dipped his rump in the mix! Outstanding! Now, in this race, there’s a whole lot of backstory and intrigue and such: Obama didn’t officially endorse Childers, Childers was sorta forced to “distance himself” from the Obama endorsement he didn’t actually get, etc. (The whole sordid scuttlebutt is being documented by the Cotton Mouth blog and by Countificus over at dKos and of course, Swing State. It’s a Madhouse! A MAADHOOUUSE–! Davis, is smearing him up one side and down the other, race-baiting and all. (You think the R’s aren’t afraid of Obama even in MS?) Childers is socially conservative, but most of the time that’s the only kind of office-holding Dems we’ve got. And better an economic populist, Gene Taylor-type Dem have the seat than a MS Republican (who are especially odious — think Trent Lott). As BooMan said, it looks like you’d get some fairly decent votes out of him, and MS would be a little bit bluer (or purpler… well, less red, anyway). I’ve given a little bit, and if you want to as well, please do. Every dollar given is a finger in the eye of the NRCC! (And there’s no telling where those fingers have been!) BooMan gave a ‘contribute’ link, and here’s actblue’s page for Childers (copy and paste I guess, because it’s one of those funky, secure addresses):
https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/childers
I hope these special elections are a wake-up call too. I hope (and expect) the Republicans to conclude that they’ve wandered too far from rightwing principles and that they need to get back to the party of Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.