On Tuesday, while most the the world will be focused on the now meaningless outcome of the West Virginia primary, most Republicans will be focused on a special House election in the First District of Mississippi. The Democrats are running a very conservative candidate named Travis Childers against a much more conservative candidate named Greg Davis. The district came open when Roger Wicker was tapped to serve in Trent Lott’s senate seat. A few weeks ago Childers came about 500 votes short of gathering a majority and winning the seat outright.
That outcome astonished political analysts because Wicker won reelection in 2006 with 66% of the vote and Bush carried the district over Kerry with 62% of the vote. The Democrats won a much less conservative (but still quite conservative) seat in Louisiana last week. Before that, the Democrats won a special election in former Speaker Dennis Hastert’s old seat. If the Republicans lose their third special election in a row, there is going to be full blown panic.
Rank-and-file Republicans say that would force a day of reckoning for their leadership.
“When you connect three dots in anything, that’s a bad thing. This connects the dots. At that point, everybody’s got to come together and have a come-to-Jesus meeting,” said Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), a retiring centrist who will help form a new advisory panel at the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“It’s a time of sober reflection and, to some extent, resolve. I hope these special elections are a wake-up call,” said Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Tex.), the leader of the conservative Republican Study Committee.
It’s will also demonstrate for the second time in three weeks that Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi are not political vulnerabilities even is very conservative districts.
This is the second special election this month in which House Republicans have tried to turn the race into a referendum on a Democratic candidate’s ties to Obama. The strategy was unsuccessful in Louisiana, but Republicans view the Mississippi district as more receptive because it is slightly more conservative and has fewer African American voters.
If the Democrats fail to win this seat, it won’t be a big surprise. It’s always been a long-shot. But when combined with the big Obama loss in West Virginia, it would add weight to the argument that Obama has some kind of problem winning to the white vote. Conversely, if the Democrats win this seat in spite of the Republican attacks, it will help offset any unease arising from the West Virginia results. So, even if you are not comfortable with Childers positions on abortion and immigration (and, I’m certainly not) you might find it in your best interests to contribute or volunteer for Childers campaign. Swing State Project has a good rundown on the state of the race on the ground. One good thing I can say about Childers is that we will be a fair/good vote on Iraq, medical coverage, and fair trade. In this blood red district, and with these consequences, it might just be worth your while to lend a hand. Another loss like this for the GOP should also, finally, lead them to seriously consider making a final split with Bush.
