I think Susan Estrich is a concern troll who lacks much in the way of principles. but I do agree with her that the long campaign has strengthened Obama. Barack and Michelle have each said at least one thing that will be a pain to explain in the general election, but no one is perfect. Everything in the kitchen sink that Clinton threw at Obama would have come up eventually in the general. That Hillary validated those criticisms will make them harder to rebut, but the fact that they are ‘old news’ will make them easier to rebut. On balance, I’d rather have it all be ‘old news’.
As for whether Barack Obama is the next Michael Dukakis…just take a look at them. Listen to them speak. Contrast their messages. Compare their charisma. Which one of them could pack stadium after stadium of adoring fans?
And Susan is also correct that Dukakis ran in a much less favorable political (right track/wrong track) environment. I’d add that the country is demographically more favorable to a liberal campaign than it was in 1988.
the number at this hour is 153 – total delegates to go;
Rep Tom Allen (D-ME) and Crystal Strait California.
If you read Time’s cover story on Obama, other things come through: he doesn’t repeat mistakes, he listens to advice and he’s overcome typecasting before.
while it takes shine off his lustre as a brand new kind of politician – he even had to learn to speak so movingly – it demonstrates that he’s an incredibly quick study.
I don’t think Estrich is exactly right, because there remains a regionalism factor that will make it near impossible to take a state like Florida, but he can compete in OH, PA and MO, plus NV and CO, and he may upset the CW in VA and MT.
I wholly agree with her and you that airing the laundry early will prove a boon to his Fall campaign.
Also, when he appeared in Eugene the other day, my impression of his speech was (a) he’s already roadtesting things for stump speeches to come and (b) he’s taking extra pains to define himself and Michelle at a personal level, to overcome McCain’s efforts to typecast them.
So it all looks like a solid ‘Go’ to me.
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By Frank Rich, NYT
The rise in black voters and young voters of all races in Democratic primaries is re-weighting the electorate. Look, for instance, at Ohio, the crucial swing state that Mr. Kerry lost by 119,000 votes four years ago. This year black voters accounted for 18 percent of the state’s Democratic primary voters, up from 14 percent in 2004, an increase of some 230,000 voters out of an overall turnout leap of roughly a million. Voters under 30 (up by some 245,000 voters) accounted for 16 percent, up from 9 in 2004. Those younger Ohio voters even showed up in larger numbers than the perennially reliable over-65 crowd.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."“I’d add that the country is demographically more favorable to a liberal campaign than it was in 1988.”
Quite an understatement. I’d just say that young people hate republicans more now than they have in a long time and Obama is perfectly positioned to take advantage of it.
l’d go further and say that there are a lot of republicans who aren’t all that pleased with the direction the party has taken the past 8 years…anecdotal evidence would seem to point to an openness to voting democratic, ie: for obama, or perhaps even stay home…assuming hillary isn’t on the ticket, then it’s a new ball game.
this election is the demoRAT’s to lose, and the longer hrc stays in the race, the longer it’s going to take to achieve some needed unity.
I’d say Bob Barr will hurt McCain and help the GOP downticket, precisely because he gives Republicans someone to turn out to vote for.
l agree.
l think he has the potential to do a great deal of damage to st. john, much more than the risk nadir poses for the demo candidate.
barr/paul…ya think?
the more l look at the way the landscape is shaping up for november, the more mccain looks like the sacrificial goat. give the old guy his shot at president, then he can add it to his cv, and retire.
but hrc’s gotta go…the sooner the better. maybe she’ll do the right thing after tomorrows expected blow outs…which anyone w/ an iq over room temperature and a calculator, knows won’t change a thing.
HRC had a slip of the tongue – refers to the next president as a “He”
Concern troll is right. Estrich is bringing it up in an attempt to conflate the two in hopes some of Dukakis’ loser dust would somehow rub off on Obama. No dice Suzy.
Let’s pick up where Booman left off. It’s not just packing a stadium, we’re talking drawing crowds of 20,000 in Seattle, Austin, and Atlanta, 24,000 in New York. This is unprecedented. And the contrast in message, charisma, etc. dramatic to say the least. Then there’s crossover appeal. I think you’d be hard pressed to find a large number of quotes from Independents and moderate Republicans suggesting they may support or are intrigued by Dukakis. But the list of people in that category willing to admit they’re feeling Barack’s gravitational pull is long and impressive. And then there’s the trump card of all trump cards in modern politics, money. The amount Obama has raised and the way he’s done it, by getting small amounts from millions of donors, is unheard of from a candidate much less a Democratic one. No Dem has been able to roll into the general election with the upper hand finance wise vs the GOP. Most found themselves closer in situation to Susan’s girl Hillary with her $20 mil and growing debt. But the Obama camp took notes from the Dean movement and took things to another level.
HRC supporters are understandably going through a rough time right now as they deal with the inevitable end of her candidacy. Anyone who’s put their heart into working for a pol and lost can surely relate. But to make absurd comparisons like this doesn’t help anyone. But I suppose it may be par the course coming from a Clinton supporter that frequently yuks it up with Sean Hannity on Fox News and is being published on RCP.