I just want to point out a few signs of the coming realignment that have come to light in the last few days. Perhaps the most startling sign comes, once again, out of Mississippi where a DSCC poll shows Democrat Ronnie Musgrove beating incumbent Senator Roger Wicker 48%-42%. In North Carolina, a SurveyUSA polls shows Sen. Liddy Dole holding a narrow 50%-46% lead over Democrat Kay Hagan and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beverly Purdue leading her Republican opponent by seven points. In Missouri, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jay Nixon is up by 24-25 points over his likely Republican opponents. Out in Colorado, an internal poll shows Democratic challenger Betsy Markey leading incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave by a 43-36 margin in a district that Bush carried in 2004 with 58% of the vote. Two recent polls show Anchorage, Alaska mayor Mark Begich narrowly leading incumbent Senator Ted Stevens. In New Mexico, Rep. Tom Udall is blowing out both of his Republican opponents by 16 and 26 points, respectively, in their race to replace Pajamas Pete Domenici. In Texas, John Cornyn is clinging to a four point lead over the relatively unknown State. Rep. Rick Noriega. And Democratic candidates for the Senate hold commanding leads in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Virginia.
Two newly minted Senate candidates, Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Bruce Lunsford of Kentucky, join Scott Kleeb of Nebraska, who was nominated last week, in expanding the map of competitive senate seats. The Republicans really have nowhere to hide. But there are other signs that the nation is moving solidly Democratic. For one, Barack Obama has an eight-point national lead over John McCain in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll. I can only imagine that that lead will grow substantially once the primary season comes to a conclusion.
But the most important sign is actually a combination of media and mainstream media hostility to John McCain’s foreign policy pronouncements. This really becomes obvious if you just scan the articles on the front-page of Think Progress. They’ve been doing an outstanding job of documenting this trend. Defense Secretary Robert Gates refused to defend Bush/McCain/Lieberman’s recent remarks about appeasing our enemies in his testimony before Congress yesterday. Appearing on FOX News, former Secretary of State James Baker openly disagreed that talking to your enemies is appeasement. One of John McCain’s closest friends in the Senate, Chuck Hagel, has gone so far as to accuse McCain of disingenuousness over the issue…something echoed by McCain’s former colleague Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island. This is important because it renders one of John McCain’s central lines of attack (that Obama is inexperienced and naive) ineffective and turns the knife back around to face himself. And if John McCain loses the national security argument, he is going to lose all but the most racially resistant states in the country. Obama is already polling fairly well in Alaska and Mississippi and he hasn’t even solidified his base yet. So, yes, there is a realignment coming and we just have to see how strong we can make it.
udall’s finally opened up a lead in colo over schaffer: 47 v 41 moe:4.5, via latest rasmussenpoll.
obama’s looking solid over st.john the equivocator: increasing his margin to 48 v 42, while hillary’s not fairing so well: trailing mccain 44 v 47, and
coattails…big one’s here.
At the Colorado State Democratic Convention last week, I heard Betsy Markey speak. What a firebrand and not afraid to call Musgrave out for all of her outrageous remarks and positions. I am very hopeful on this one.
more on the marky v musgrove race from coloradopols: markey leading 43% v 36%…surprised her own campaign.
wonder what rep. musgrave thinks of it? she’s gotta be nervous given her squeaker last time.
funny, MyDD hasn’t updated their site at all today. Maybe the dream really is dead.
Doubtful. Undoubtedly Jerome’s simply been out partying all night, and simply hasn’t had the energy to post anything declaring a huge win by Her Majesty yet.
The crazy will return.
As AG says, “Bet on it.”
probably waiting for the latest talking points [rationale] for why it’s not. maybe daou’s getting tired…or not getting paid.
JUST IN:
AP via Politico
Meanwhile Ambinder
“Linda Douglass, an award-winning television and print journalist who currently serves as a contributing editor to National Journal, will join Barack Obama’s presidential campaign as a senior strategist and as a senior campaign spokesperson on the roadshow, a newly created position.”
Not all that surprising. He and Dean have been pretty much on the same page all along. But if he can engineer it by May 30th, that’ll be that for any chance of Florida and Michigan being meaningful.
I would be very amused if he pushed Dean out of the DNC chair… Only to turn around and nominate him as a running mate.
Boy wouldn’t that make a few people’s heads explode. 🙂
It’s an interesting thought, and not entirely out of la-la land. I understand Dean is planning to retire as DNC chair anyway next year, and once we have a sitting Democratic President he’ll be pretty much able to put his own slate in at the DNC. But I think the more likely scenario is for Obama to integrate his team with the people the DNC already has in place with an eye toward the transition, and then choose someone for VP who can help him more than Dean could in the GE. I don’t know who that would be, except that it can’t be Clinton herself. A good compromise might be to get a list from Clinton of six people who are acceptable to her campaign for the VP slot and then start considering the five whose names aren’t “Hillary Clinton.”
Love it.
yup