I’ve never really taken the idea of beating Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in the general election very seriously. None of our strongest challengers agreed to run against him and he has more money than God. With Obama as the Democrat’s presidential nominee, I figure Kentucky will go strongly for McCain. But McConnell is still in trouble:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Kentucky Senate race shows Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford with a five percentage point lead over long-time Republican Senator Mitch McConnell. The poll, conducted just two days after Lunsford won the Democratic nomination, shows the challenger with 49% of the vote while McConnell earns 44%…
…just 67% of McCain voters currently plan to vote for McConnell. Twenty-eight percent (28%) of McCain voters say they will split the ticket and vote for Lunsford.
Sen. McConnell responded by releasing numbers from his own internal poll that show him up 50-39. Either way, McConnell is not safe. And if McConnell is not safe then it is probably safe to say that Lamar Alexander isn’t safe, either. It’s increasingly likely that the Dems will have over 10 competitive Senate races on election day. Here’s a list, in descending order of competitiveness.
1. Open- Virginia
2. Open- New Mexico
3. Sununu- New Hampshire
4. Open- Colorado
5. Stevens- Alaska
6. Wicker- Mississippi
7. Coleman- Minnesota
8. Dole- North Carolina
9. G. Smith- Oregon
10. McConnell- Kentucky
11. Collins- Maine
12. Cornyn- Texas
13. Open- Idaho
14. P. Roberts- Kansas
15. Inhofe- Oklahoma
16. Open- Nebraska
17. Alexander- Tennessee
18. Chambliss- Georgia
19. Graham- South Carolina
20. Barrasso- Wyoming
21. Sessions- Alabama
22. Cochran- Mississippi
23. Enzi- Wyoming
I think the first twelve races will be competitive. I think the top 17 races have the potential to be competitive. And Georgia, listed at 18, could become competitive of Jim Martin wins the primary on the Democratic side.
