Well…a remarkable thing just happened. We just discovered that the Clintons no longer control the Democratic National Committee. They were unable to win a single argument today. The Obama campaign joined both the Florida and Michigan Democratic Party’s proposals, and both proposals prevailed. In Florida, the delegation was restored but given only half votes. In Michigan, the delegation was also restored, but given only half votes. But the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) chucked out the results of the Michigan primary and instead used a formula awarding Obama all Uncommitted delegates plus four delegates the election results would have awarded to Clinton.
As a result, the absolute voting power of both states was halved. Clinton emerged with 19 net votes out of Florida, but that is offset by 4.5 votes that Edwards received. Her advantage out of Michigan was a mere five delegates. In other words, she picked up approximately 20 delegates today. In addition, the RBC did not recognize the validity of the Michigan primary thereby undermining any claim that the Clinton’s could make for winning the popular votes there.
During the vote over the Michigan proposal, Harold Ickes spoke for the Clinton campaign. He was furious and he accused the committee of ‘hijacking’ four of Clinton’s delegates. He informed the committee that he had been instructed by Hillary Clinton to tell them that she reserved the right to appeal their decision at the Credentials Committee in Denver. This evoked a very angry response from one of the black members of the Committee (I’ll update with his name) who gave a history lesson on the Mississippi Freedom Party and showed real moral indignation at the dishonest and insincere arguments that have been made by Harold Ickes and some other Clinton allies. The most important signal came from former DNC Chair Don Fowler of South Carolina. Fowler is very well respected and he is a prominent Clinton supporter. He sharply disagreed with Ickes. He said that he didn’t get what he wanted out of the negotiations but that he supported the Michigan proposal as the best and fairest solution available to bring about party unity. He praised Jim Roosevelt and Alexis Harman, the co-chairs, for running an excellent hearing.
Nevertheless, the final vote was 19-8. It was a 2-1 decision that was supported by the Michigan Democratic Party and the Obama campaign. The Clintons may reserve the right to appeal but they don’t have a leg to stand on. I understand that the Clinton campaign has also sent out a press release now reaffirming their right to appeal. So, we’ll have to see what the Clintons will do, but it is clear that their camp is angrier than a swarm of hornets.
Personally, I think we should treat them like a swarm of hornets and run for cover, because they’re capable of anything right now.
As for the New Math, the new magic number will be 2,117 or 2,118 (when Donna Edwards is elected, it will change the math slightly). Obama now has 2,053 delegates and so is 64 delegates short of the nomination. He will win approximately 42 delegates from the remaining three contests. So, I think we can say with confidence that he needs 20-22 superdelegates out of the remaining 205 superdelegates. In reality, between not yet awarded add-on delegates, Edwards delegates, the Pelosi delegates that will go to the winner of the pledged delegate war, Rahm Emanuel, Jim Clyburn, Donna Brazille, etc., Obama already has more than the 20-22 delegates he needs. He is now assured of winning the nomination and he can probably make that announcement official after the polls close in Montana on Tuesday night.
Let’s all take a moment to celebrate.