Obama wins: Bush bombs Iran

9 Comments

1. 

   martini on June 24, 2008 at 12:44 pm

   Of all things, this got almost a thousand comments:
   http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/21/144412/857

   There’s even a decent amount of diary traffic on AIPAC:
   http://www.dailykos.com/tag/aipac

   Personally, I wish people would start using a new acronym, something like “TWUTAI” (Those Who Want Us to Attack Iran) … because it’s certainly broader than just AIPAC, and Those Who Want that attack are more numerous than just AIPAC.  Sadly, people who don’t even know the term AIPAC have spoken to me about the Evil That Is Iran… hello, nefarious “Other” whom we should destroy for whatever dumb reason.

   I’d really love to see a timeline of Obama’s ups & downs on opinions on Israel.  It was only a few short weeks ago that he had sensible stuff to say about two-party peace in the Palestine/Israel region, right?  Seems like a misty memory, now.

   There’s also the interesting, confounding suggestion that McCain might not even be our Republican “choice” in November.

   Another interesting notion I was reading about recently, that Israel’s recent Iran war prep exercises are a strategically stupid idea.  Consider, now Iran has lots of information about possible tactics Israel could employ, as do all of Iran’s neighborhood buddies.  The entire audience in the Middle East also has clear signs from Israel of potential aggression, so Israel isn’t quite the victimized wall flower who can wail for pity with a straight face, if the pro-attack-Iran faction gets their way.

   • 

     shergald on June 24, 2008 at 1:18 pm

     Thanks for this interesting overview. When I see McCain in my mind, I always see Joe Lieberman, Israel’s top representative in the Senate, in the shadows. And given Obama’s winning stats nationally, you have to wonder whether McCain-Lieberman do not believe that something has to be thrown out there to shake up the country, a fear tactic of some kind, as Bush succeeded in doing in 2004. And what else do the Republicans have that could do the job better than an American attack against Iran? Not just Israel, but Big Oil would love it as well.

     Just a thought.

     • 

       martini on June 24, 2008 at 1:39 pm

       I don’t particularly believe the commentors on here, that Obama necessarily told Lieberman “what for” .. but it sure would be interesting to have been a fly on the wall hearing THIS conversation:
       http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9723

     • 

       idredit on June 25, 2008 at 11:57 am

       Not so sure Israel is buying Obama’s AIPAC speech. Given the overnight deal reached by Olmert and Barak to keep the Kadima afloat until September, that 70% probability of an Israeli attack on Iran is moving more to the dead certain category.

       Will Bunch weighs in, points us to this CBS Bews story that’s alarming:

       We — or at least our closest regional ally, Israel — need to start a war with Iran! Pronto! As in, before January 20, 2009. For all the talk over the last generation of an “October surprise” in an American election, we’ve arguably never had one before. But things could be different this time in around.this story comes from CBS News, and it’s alarming. There a new factor that’s been tossed into the mix, and has given Israeli leaders and the Cheney faction new life on the issue.

       It’s “President Barack Obama.”

          CBS consultant Michael Oren says Israel doesn’t want to wait for a new administration.

           “The Israelis have been assured by the Bush administration that the Bush administration will not allow Iran to nuclearize,” Oren said. “Israelis are uncertain about what would be the policies of the next administration vis-à-vis Iran.”

           Israel’s message is simple: If you don’t, we will. Israel held a dress rehearsal for a strike earlier this month, but military analysts say Israel can not do it alone.

           “Keep in mind that Israel does not have strategic bombers,” Oren said. “The Israeli Air Force is not the American Air Force. Israel can not eliminate Iran’s nuclear program.”

           The U.S. with its stealth bombers and cruise missiles has a much greater capability. Vice President Cheney is said to favor a strike, but both Mullen and Defense Secretary Gates are opposed to an attack which could touch off a third war in the region.

       Mullen is Joint Chiefs Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen, who left last night to meet with the Israelis. To be sure, Americans — including Obama, of course — and much of the rest of the world don’t want Iran to develop nuclear weapons; the nuclear club already has too many members. In fact, my sense after watching Obama’s recent speech to AIPAC is that his stance on that is tougher than people give him credit for. There are still positive memories of how Israel in a down-and-dirty 1981 airstrike was able to destroy a Saddam Hussein nuclear start-up in Iraq.

       But this isn’t 1981. Tehran learned from Baghdad’s mistake — it’s nuclear start-up facilities are a lot better protected, and it would be hard to successfully strike them without significant civilian casualties, especially if, heaven forbid, tactical nuclear bombs were needed to reach them.

       [.]
       In other words, isn’t $8-a-gallon gas an even bigger threat to global security than Iranian nukes — which probably aren’t even as close as Israeli leaders claim they are? To trigger World War III just because you’re a little nervous about a change in the American White House would be even an greater folly of mankind than World War I, if that’s possible. I know that are some people out there working to block an Obama presidency, and there are ways to do that in a democracy.

       Setting the Persian Gulf ablaze isn’t one of them.

       on a dangerous road to world chaos.

       • 

         shergald on June 26, 2008 at 9:15 am

         Arianna at Huffington Post gives another slant on this prospective attack on Iran. It’s just what the Republican intelligensia may order:

         Arianna Huffington: FearWatch ’08: Keeping an Eye Out for GOP Fear-MongeringAfter McCain’s chief campaign advisor said that another terrorist attack on U.S. soil “certainly would be a big advantage” for his candidate, McCain claimed: “I cannot imagine why he would say it.” Really, Senator, you cannot imagine why your top advisor would follow in the footsteps of Karl Rove, who made scaring the bejesus out of the American people the centerpiece of GOP strategy for the last six years? Let me break it down for you: fear is a frighteningly effective sales pitch — one that has worked like a charm for Republicans since 9/11. But things are always less scary when the lights are on, so throughout the campaign HuffPost will be conducting a FearWatch, keeping our eyes peeled for attempts to scare the public into voting their fears….

         McCain needs the fear factor going for him if he would ever have a chance in November. Iran is there and waiting.

2. 

   Oui on June 24, 2008 at 1:43 pm

   .
   Excellent comment on frontpage story …

   Re: Tacking Away from the Base

   Maybe more worrisome, is Obama’s tack to the right on Iran. Parts of his speech to AIPAC would make his cousin, Dick Cheney, proud.  He said, “As president I will use all elements of American power to pressure Iran…I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Everything.”
   …

   by CarolynC on Tue Jun 24th, 2008 at 09:49:56 AM PST

   Israel Talks on Numerous Levels to Hamas, Syria and Lebanon

   "But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

   • 

     idredit on June 25, 2008 at 11:17 am

     difficult to follow the machinations.

     quite a few heart murmurs this morning.

     BREAKING NEWS:

     Bush wants North Korea to be delisted from the terror list

     via Steve Clemons The Washington Note

     Bush Administration to Ask Congress on Thursday to REMOVE North Korea from TERROR WATCH LIST

     Rumors have been kicking around that this might be happening, but no administration officials would confirm until today that this was finally decided.

     During the day today, I spoke with officials from the State Department, the CIA, the Department of Defense, President Bush’s staff, and the Office of the Vice President — and several sources from these departments confirmed that the administration was moving forward on formally asking Congress to remove North Korea from the controversial watch list — which is seen as a key confidence building step by North Korea and China in moving towards North Korea’s eventual return to the nuclear non-proliferation club.

     Sources also tell TWN that while the Bush administration will take this step Thursday, Vice President Cheney’s office was a dissenting voice in the administration’s internal discussions.

     While North Korea’s behavior continues to be erratic and often troubling, the Bush administration’s decision will be considered a major victory for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Deputy Secretary John Negroponte, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and others — but the real winner is Department of State Asst. Secretary for East Asia Affairs Christopher Hill — who has been under almost constant assault from John Bolton and others opposed to deal-making with North Korea.

     More on the implications tomorrow.

     (emphasis added)

     Go figure…who’s next

     We need Iran to help with Afghanistan and Iraq.

     • 

       dada on June 25, 2008 at 12:18 pm

       there’s more on this apparent ‘hand shake’ deal, and the quid pro quo backstory at the asia times today:

       A secret US handshake with Pyongyang

       United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently announced that North Korea will soon release its much-anticipated (and long overdue) “complete and correct declaration” of all its nuclear activities. In return, the George W Bush administration will remove Pyongyang from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list and Trading with the Enemy Act (TWEA) restrictions; actions that could be reversed if the North’s list proves to be inadequate or if cooperation on verification is “insufficient”.

       Some have argued that it would make more sense to wait until the list is delivered and verified before restrictions are lifted, and they are probably right. Unfortunately, that was not what Washington promised. If we have learned nothing else about North Korea, we should know one thing by now: while Pyongyang might not be too good at living up to its own promises, it will not budge an inch if it perceives that others are not living up to theirs.
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       Also missing of late has been any reference to the North’s suspected uranium enrichment program or to the centrifuges purchased from the network of Pakistan’s former nuclear head, Abdul Qadeer Khan…
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       Don’t expect to see an accounting of proliferation activities (to Syria or elsewhere) in the North’s declaration. While the North has promised “not to transfer nuclear materials, technology or know-how”, the agreements do not require them to fess up for past sins…
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       Another lingering concern is the absence of any reference in any of the agreements to Pyongyang’s current inventory of nuclear weapons. No one currently knows how many exist and where they might be. Of course, “denuclearization” means giving up weapons as well as programs and facilities, but we should not be surprised if Pyongyang chooses to make a distinction between the two and tries to hold on to any actual weapons until all other milestones, including normalization of relations with the US and Japan and the provision of LWRs, have been realized. Is a “phase four” also in the cards?

       Ralph Cossa president of the Pacific Forum CSIS in Honolulu.

       very strange reversal of attitude on the part of BushCo™. to bad they don’t have the same feeling about iran.

       • 

         idredit on June 25, 2008 at 2:26 pm

         quite!

         are these not the same guys who were helping Syria build some nuclear stuff in plain sight..the same buildings Israel bombed and the IAEA is just getting around, this week, to inspect the buried debris?

         Credibility stretched.