Here is my ranking of the 23 Republican-held Senate seats in terms of the most likely to switch hands to the Democrats.
1. New Mexico- Pete Domenici (Rep. Steve Pearce vs. Rep. Tom Udall)
2. Virginia- John Warner (Fmr. Gov. Jim Gilmore vs. Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner)
3. New Hampshire- Sen. John Sununu vs. Fmr. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen
4. Alaska- Sen. Ted Stevens vs. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich
5. Colorado- Wayne Allard (Fmr. Rep Bob Schaffer vs. Rep. Mark Udall)
6. Mississippi (2)- Sen. Roger Wicker vs. Fmr. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove
7. Oregon- Sen. Gordon Smith vs. Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley
8. Minnesota- Sen. Norm Coleman vs. Al Franken
9. North Carolina- Sen. Elizabeth Dole vs. State Sen. Kay Hagan
10. Maine- Sen. Susan Collins vs. Rep. Tom Allen
11. Kentucky- Minority Leader Mitch McConnell vs. Bruce Lunsford
12. Georgia- Sen. Saxby Chambliss vs. Fmr. State Rep. Jim Martin
13. Idaho- Larry Craig (Fmr. Gov. Jim Risch vs. Fmr. Rep. Larry LaRocco)
14. Texas- Sen. John Cornyn vs. State Rep. Rick Noriega
15. Kansas- Sen. Pat Roberts vs. Fmr. Rep. Jim Slattery
16. Oklahoma- Sen. James Inhofe vs. State Sen. Andrew Rice
17. Tennessee- Sen. Lamar Alexander vs. Bob Tuke
18. Nebraska- Chuck Hagel (Fmr. Gov. Mike Johanns vs. Scott Kleeb)
19. South Carolina- Sen. Lindsey Graham vs. Bob Conley
20. Wyoming (2)- Sen. Mike Barrasso vs. ???
21. Alabama- Jeff Sessions vs. State Sen. Vivian Figures
22. Mississippi (1)- Sen. Thad Cochran vs. State Rep. Erik Fleming
23. Wyoming (1)- Mike Enzi vs. ???
In my opinion, we are likely to win all of the top six selections. In the rankings between seven and eighteen, I think it is possible that we will win four more. It seems very possible that we can pick up ten seats. Andrew Rice and Scott Kleeb are both excellent candidates that could well run way ahead of expectations. Rick Noriega needs money but he is also an excellent candidate. Jeff Merkley, Al Franken, and Tom Allen will all be running in states that Obama will win comfortably. Liddy Dole, Saxby Chambliss, and John Cornyn are all very flawed and vulnerable candidates. And Mitch McConnell is not safe. I think even Bob Tuke in Tennessee has the potential to make his race competitive. And Idaho’s GOP might be just fractious enough to let Larry LaRocco squeak through.
As of tonight, I predict a pick-up of ten senate seats. Subtracting Lieberman from the caucus, that would give the Democrats (including Bernie Sanders) a 60-40 margin, enabling them to defeat any filibuster where they remain united.
I am admittedly going beyond what the evidence is showing me. My prediction is not based on current polling numbers but on an estimation of the talents of the second and third-tier candidates. I think we can win four of the following twelve contests:
1. Oregon- Sen. Gordon Smith vs. Speaker of the House Jeff Merkely
2. Minnesota- Sen. Norm Coleman vs. Al Franken
3. North Carolina- Sen. Elizabeth Dole vs. State Sen. Kay Hagan
4. Maine- Sen. Susan Collins vs. Rep. Tom Allen
5. Kentucky- Minority Leader Mitch McConnell vs. Bruce Lunsford
6. Georgia- Sen. Saxby Chambliss vs. Fmr. State Rep. Jim Martin
7. Idaho- Larry Craig (Fmr. Gov. Jim Risch vs. Fmr. Rep. Larry LaRocco)
8. Texas- Sen. John Cornyn vs. State Rep. Rick Noriega
9. Kansas- Sen. Pat Roberts vs. Fmr. Rep. Jim Slattery
10. Oklahoma- Sen. James Inhofe vs. State Sen. Andrew Rice
11. Tennessee- Sen. Lamar Alexander vs. Bob Tuke
12. Nebraska- Chuck Hagel (Fmr. Gov. Mike Johanns vs. Scott Kleeb)
Hitting 33% of these races seems doable to me. But it’s a good question whether such a majority will be cohesive enough to stick together and override filibusters.
