I don’t pretend to be an expert on the former Soviet Socialist Republics but I do get the strong sense that Russia is so bloated with income from high energy prices that they are feeling very aggressive and looking to force the United States and Britain out of their former territory. The invasion of Georgia appears to be a gambit to take over control of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the Black Sea ports that are transit points for Caspian energy supplies.
Jerome Guillet has more on these issues, and I think his take is basically correct. I’m not as interested as Jerome in who has the moral high ground in this conflict as I am in its potential to open up a second Cold War, or possibly even a Hot War. It’s indisputably true that the West has been extremely provocative towards Russia. In the immediate aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union we moved aggressively into their former territory seeking opportunities to extract oil and gas concessions. We continuously moved NATO eastward and have been seeking to bring the Ukraine and Georgia into the NATO fold. The Bush administration tore up the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and cut a deal to place anti-missile defenses in the Czech Republic. And, in what may have been the last straw, they promoted political independence for Kosovo. All of these actions have alarmed and angered Russia.
But the times have changed. Our troops are bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan and our economy is weak and our budget overwhelmed. Meanwhile, Russia is flush with cash and their troops are well-rested. With a lame-duck president and the country embroiled in a presidential election year, it was the perfect time for Russia to reassert itself.
Whether you think Russia is justified or not, this is an extremely worrisome development. One thing it shows is that the status quo will not hold if America pulls out of Central Asia. Russia is ready to reassert itself, particularly where energy supplies are at stake. And we know how oil men react when their assets are threatened. Don’t we? Any hope for peace in our time just got a little dimmer.
