Here is something to think about while you’re waiting for your cell phone to ring and tell you who Obama has selected as his running mate. What strategy should Obama use (as far as visiting states) in the post-convention stage of the election?
I am an advocate of a strategy that involves an ever tightening series of concentric rings. What I mean is that Obama should start out, post-convention, making a final push to expand the map. This means working the periphery of his natural constituency. He should visit Alaska, he should go to Montana and the Dakotas. He should drop by Arizona and make a stop in Texas. Time permitting, he should test out Mississippi and Georgia and the Carolinas. That’s the first ring, and it should last about two weeks.
The second ring, lasting until about the end of September, should focus on the tighter ring of states that are perennial battlegrounds: Missouri, Iowa, the Upper Midwest, Pennsylvania, and (this year) Virginia.
During the first two-weeks of October, Obama should try to lock down the southwestern strategy of winning Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada (and perhaps Arizona).
Lastly, in the final two weeks he should go where the polls tell him the contest is close and could have a big bearing on the outcome.
In the early stages, during September, Obama should focus on visiting college campuses where returning students can be mobilized and directed to proselytize to their parents. During the early-voting window in Ohio (Sept. 30 to Oct. 6), Obama should visit every major college in the Buckeye state. But as the election draws nearer, Obama needs to work on different constituencies. Polling will dictate the strategy, but is seems likely that the push will be to lock down so-called Reagan Democrats and lower-class white voters. Strategy is not just about which states you visit, but which regions and which constituencies you visit.
Late October might see Obama or his vice-president visiting the Appalachian parts of Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Mississippi. Or it might see him seeking to boost his base-turnout in Columbus, Northern Virginia, Raleigh, and Atlanta. It’s too early to tell which strategy makes sense.
In any case, those are some ideas. While Obama is pursuing one part of this strategy, his running mate should be pursuing another. What are your thoughts?
In any case, those are my ideas.