Few thoughts on developments in Pakistan.
So president Musharraf finally buckled under government’s pressure and resigned in televised swan song which ended with appropriate farewell “Bye-Bye Pakistan”. Yet another Bush’s foreign policy failure – after 9 years in power and siphoning tens of blns of dollars of American aid, Mr Osama bin Laden is still free and roams somewhere in this South Asian country.
Mush’s peaceful exit should not come as a total surprise to anybody as Pakistani army apparently refused to entertain his desire to dissolve parliament and impose president’s rule.
What questions now raised in the region?
First immediate questions are about who will be next president and how much power he or she will wield. Then there are more fundamental questions about direction of this country, in the war on terror, on economy and troubled relationship with India.
About the first group of questions. After watching developments in this country and listening to interviews of leading politicians and commentators I have impression that new president will have his powers clipped. Consequently most likely new president will be insignificant political figure, from minority or even woman. Pakistani politicians usually look at India as an example and here we have Pratibha Patil already one year in office and she seems to handle her ceremonial obligations quite well.
After Mush exit in the country there are only 2 politicians with national appeal left – Asif Zardari, widower of assasinated Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. Naturally they will begin fighting between themselves, it’s only not clear when. Another question is whether they can do anything worthwile while they are still together besides restoring deposed Supreme Court judges.
Pakistan was formed 61 years ago to provide safe heaven for Muslims in the subcontinent but its troubled political life frequently interrupted by military coups turned it into almost failed state. Pakistan having no military advantage over India resorted to support of terrorism against India through its dreadful intelligence agency ISI. (Obviously in hope to sow disorder in India but to ISI’s chagrin India turned to be resilient to terrorist strikes and even attracted more and more foreign tourists and investors every year).
After 1998 both countries developed nuclear weapons. That made large scale conflict between them impossible (barring stand-off and occasional shelling in Jammu and Kashmir). So rivalry was reduced mainly to economical matters where India has huge advantage. Also Indian political system proved to be strong and stable despite numerous political and corruption scandals.
While US supported mujaheedins in Afghanistan against Russians Pakistan was in ideal situation, now with Americans replacing Soviets it finds itself squeezed between hammer and anvil, torn between long time nurtured Islamists and American allies. Pervez Musharraf always claimed his whole-hearted support for the war on terror however the West started to harbour doubts about his commitment since last year especially after Islamists (like Maulana Fazlullah Radio) took over significant territories in Pakistan. I think he and Pakistan’s military establishment supported Americans thinking that Americans will eventually withdraw from Afghanistan and they would oust Karzai government and help to install the more friendly Taliban (maybe renamed). So it was temporary (and profitable for Pakistan’s army) arrangement.
However due to Bush administration distraction with regime change in Iraq Americans did not succeed in Afghanistan. Even half-hearted NATO participation and existing international consensus (I mean Russia, China, India and others are firmly behind Karzai) did not help. Such international situation forced Pakistan to seek reconciliation with India and be less vocal on Indian heavy-handed approach to Kashmiri separatists.
So we may expect continuation of Pakistan’s policies shaped in last year under Musharraf. For example it will be two levels approach to India (political leaders will continue to talk about economic cooperation while military and especially ISI will go on with open and covert anti-Indian activities). Pakistan’s rulers will continue to ask Washington for financial help in exchange for promise to capture OBL one day. (Actually Washington already stroke deal with coalition government and released 5 bln dollars, after that Pakistan’s army immediately launched attacks against Islamists). Political turmoil in Pakistan in case of infighting between Mr Zardari and Sharif will complicate things, to what extent we don’t know.
