Silly Kevin Drum…doesn’t he know that a signed agreement with the Iraqi government for American troop withdrawals is excellent news for John McCain?
Forget occupying Iraq (like it was Germany or South Korea) for the next 100 years as McCain advocated this spring. The pact calls for the removal of Coalition troops from Iraqi cities next summer, with a goal of total withdrawal of ‘combat’ troops by 2011.
The security deal came together after the Bush administration made concessions on several long-held positions. The White House softened its stance over a pullout date after it became clear that Mr. Maliki was adamant that the agreement contain at least a vague timetable for a U.S. withdrawal.
The administration also dropped its insistence that American contractors remain immune from Iraqi law. Western contractors — especially those working for Blackwater, which is under investigation for a deadly shooting last year — are deeply unpopular in Iraq.
One of the last remaining roadblocks had been whether U.S. military personnel would enjoy immunity from prosecution under Iraqi law. Mr. Humood, Iraq’s chief negotiator on the agreement, said joint committees of U.S. and Iraqi officials will be formed to resolve such issues when cases arise.
Of course, this is still a draft document. The Wall Street Journal reports that President Bush is almost certain to sign it, but that the Iraqis will have more trouble coming to a consensus.
The draft agreement must be approved by several layers of Iraqi political leaders. Several members of Mr. Maliki’s cabinet have voiced opposition to elements of the deal. The Iraqi Parliament, which also has to sign off on the deal, is in recess until the beginning of September.
South Vietnamese President Nguyen Van Thieu once asked Alexander Haig, “Have you ever seen any peace accord in the history of the world in which the invaders had been permitted to stay in the territories they had invaded?” It is considerations like this that will complicate efforts at consensus within Iraq’s leadership. The fact that Iraq is attempting to function as a representative government makes this process more complicated, as the issue of any American presence at all is easily demagogued.
As Kevin Drum points out, this news sets up a dueling argument. John McCain will say that only he had the wisdom to support the surge that made this pact possible, while Barack Obama will say that the pact is exactly what he has been advocating all along. Republicans will heave a sigh of relief that the issue of Iraq is at least partially taken off the table, but John McCain will be concerned that the public’s focus will turn more to domestic issues and the economy.
To win this argument, it is important for Obama to hammer home that everyone but John McCain has come to the conclusion that it is not in our national interests to try to occupy Iraq for the next 100 years, and that Iraq does not want permanent military bases in their country. When McCain tries to take credit for the surge, it’s vital to respond that he said Iraq would be a cakewalk and that this agreement is a repudiation of his 100 years policy. McCain needs a fist in his mouth at all times. No let up.
But, obviously, any news is excellent news for John McCain. Mr. Drum should know that by now. Just ask Andrea Mitchell, or someone.