After last night we now know what the major and minor themes of this campaign will be. Not that it was totally unexpected but the Republican trump cards will be the same ones they’ve employed throughout their last 8 years of power: fear and hate.

Hatred of liberals. Hatred of government. Hatred of Black People. Hatred of Latinos. Hatred of gays, lesbians and transsexuals. Hatred of the media. Hatred of “elites” (i.e., people who went to Ivy League schools, university professors, blah, blah, blah). Hatred of unions. Sarah Palin’s speech was simply stuffed to the gills with the theme of hate, as was the speech given by Rudy Guliani. It was one long exegesis of how poor Republicans and hard working (white) Americans are being victimized by Democrats, Liberals and Minorities. The constant sarcastic references to “community organizers” was classic dog whistle politics, and dog whistle really is a poor metaphor for how their message was conveyed…because they displayed little subtlety about what they meant. The speeches and the tone in which they were given were clearly intended to express disdain and hatred for all things liberal, progressive and Democratic.

It was also clearly intended to convey a racist message: Don’t vote for the black guy, fellow white people. He isn’t one of us, he doesn’t share “our “Christian” values. He’s an affirmative action baby, so he isn’t qualified to lead this country. He’s out of touch with your concerns. He won’t keep the country safe because deep down, he doesn’t love it like we do. You can’t trust him to keep the terrorists out. You can’t trust him to keep your family safe from illegal aliens and/or criminals (i.e., scary black and brown people).

Those are the major themes. What are the minor ones? Well, they are all related to issues of personality. Obama is unqualified to be President. McCain is a hero with years of experience who knows what it takes to win the war on terror. Republicans care out life (i.e., they oppose abortion) and Democrats don’t. McCain and Palin are the real reformers. Obama and Biden are the Washington game players. McCain’s an authentic American. Obama is not. McCain’s a regular guy. Obama is an elitist snob and a shyster. As you can see, the minor themes are designed to reinforce the major themes of the Republicans.

What is also clear is the almost total absence of any emphasis on issues. The war? Practically a non-topic. The economy? Ditto. Only in the area of Energy do the Republicans offer anything approaching a substantive policy proposal, and its been one that is hardly unfamiliar or unexpected: the claim that we can solve our energy problems and lower gas prices by drilling for more domestic oil in coastal areas and in (big surprise) ANWR. Other than that, the Republicans don’t really have much to say about the issues. They continue to beat the drum for more tax cuts, less government, a bigger military, more wars, and a go it alone approach to foreign affairs. It’s essentially four more (or eight more years) of the Bush administration. In other words, denial and distraction from the important issues which concern most people.

I don’t know if their divisive political tactics, emphasizing personal attacks and extreme partisanship will win again this year for McCain like they did for Bush in 2000 and 2004. I think their strategy is to try to keep the election close (within a margin of no more than 5% nationally), suppress the hell out of the African American and Latino vote in key states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, etc. and hope to squeeze out a narrow electoral victory in November. It’s a classic Rove campaign. Fire up the base. Demonize your opponent with smears and lies. Get out your vote and keep your opponents from voting. It worked in 2000 because Gore ran a terrible campaign and the media played into Bush’s hands, repeating GOP talking points with little or no fact checking. It worked in 2004 because Kerry ran a poor campaign and fear was still enough of a motivation to make people reluctant to pull the lever for a Democrat, even if he was a war hero.

It didn’t work in 2006, however, in the Congressional elections. People were fed up with the direction of the country, with the economy, with the war, and they blamed Republcans for that. I think they will continue to blame Republicans for the current economic mess we find ourselves in. I expect the Democrats to hold onto their majorities in the House and Senate regardless of how the Presidential election goes.

So it will all come down to this in the end: will enough white people vote for the black man running for President? Will enough of them overcome the implied message of bigotry, negative stereotypes, and fear of the other which the Republicans will push to vote for a biracial man who offers as his major campaign themes hope and change? We’ll find out in about eight weeks.