Pakistan is a ticking bomb; ready to explode perhaps before November – much sooner than many analysts were predicting. The fuse has been lit. On the weekend, Asif Zardari, Bhutto’s widower, was elected president in the midst of turmoil. Zardari, profile- bio, holds little power. He’s now in the firing line.
Pakistan has announced “disconnection of supply lines to the allied forces stationed in Afghanistan through Pakistan in an apparent reaction to a ground attack on a border village in South Waziristan agency by the Nato forces.”
Listen up: Af/Pak is one Taliban country – now considered the most dangerous place in the world
A Primer
“Without the [Pakistan’s] army’s backing – and the cooperation of the ISI, Pakistan’s military intelligence agency – the war against the Taliban is hopeless. There are enough Pakistanis, particularly in the tribal borderlands, who feel Musharraf was wrong to get involved in what they see as an American war against Islam.
It is often forgotten that Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan is merely the line drawn by Sir Mortimer Durand, foreign secretary of British India in 1893, and perceived by most local tribes nowadays as an irrelevance. The name Pakistan itself is essentially an Anglophone acronym, the first three letters of which include Afghans between the Punjabis and Kashmiris. It is by no means an exaggeration to say that escalation of the current fighting along the border could threaten the country’s existence. The question is whether Zardari can display the same acumen in that rats’ nest as he has done in his financial dealings.
– The Sunday Times, UK, September 7, 2008 – link above
A series of incidents over the last 72 hours provide more confirmation that the war in Afghanistan is now openly extended into Pakistan – the new international battlefield:
The Events
Power cuts fuel Pakistan’s power struggle
The assassination attempt on the Prime Minister is the latest twist in a complex battle for influence for which the Taliban claimed responsibility.
The attack comes in the context of a growing Islamist insurgency in the Pashtun areas of Pakistan’s North West, and after a string of terrorist acts. Last week suicide bombers outside Pakistan’s main munitions factory in the town of Wah killed almost 100 people
Meanwhile, the coalition of parties that brought down Pervez Musharraf has split after less than six months, with Ms Bhutto’s widower, Asif Zardari, pushing successfully to become president, and the Muslim League, headed by her old nemesis, Nawaz Sharif, moving into increasingly fierce opposition.
Pakistan reacts with fury after up to 20 die in ‘American’ attack on its soil
The war in Afghanistan spilled over on to Pakistani territory for the first time yesterday when heavily armed commandos, believed to be US Special Forces, landed by helicopter and attacked three houses in a village close to a known Taliban and al-Qaida stronghold.
The surprise attack on Jala Khel was launched in early morning darkness and killed between seven and 20 people, according to a range of reports from the remote Angoor Adda region of South Waziristan. The village is situated less than one mile from the Afghan border.
Right on the heels of the US confirmation of their ground assault inside Pakistan the retaliation was swift:
Pakistan cuts supply lines to NATO forces
BARA: In a major development, the federal government on Friday announced disconnection of supply lines to the allied forces stationed in Afghanistan through Pakistan in an apparent reaction to a ground attack on a border village in South Waziristan agency by the Nato forces.
Political authorities of the Khyber Agency claimed to have received verbal directives to immediately halt transportation of all kinds of goods meant for the US-led Nato forces in Afghanistan for an indefinite period.
[.]
The authorities claimed that due to repeated attacks on the personnel of the Khassadar forces during the last one week and abduction of a few personnel, it had become difficult for the security forces to provide foolproof security to the supply lines.
Independent sources, however, claimed that the government feared retaliation by the tribesmen against a recent ground attack conducted by the Nato forces in Angoor Adda of the South Waziristan Agency that triggered condemnation from various quarters, including the government of Pakistan itself.
The French are rethinking their commitment.
What are the aims of this war?
French Opposition Demands Rethink of Afghanistan Mission
The French are not alone. The Afghan mission will be debated during the Canadian election campaign over the next four weeks. Since 2002 ninety six Canadian forces personnel have been killed.
Lessons Not Learned
Af/Pak will prove to be the mother of all quagmires.