I firmly believe that Barack Obama is going to turn out his base without a lot of additional effort. I mean that Obama will get huge urban turnout, he’ll crush in college towns, he’ll get the Jewish vote in places like southeast Florida, Northern Virginia, and the Philly suburbs, and he’ll do very well with all core Democratic groups except lower class, low-education whites. Obama’s base is motivated, self-organized, and ready to go. John McCain doesn’t really have a base. But the addition of Sarah Palin allows McCain to tap into some of George Bush’s base. They are now more motivated to work for McCain but they don’t have much time to do voter registration and build lists. They’ll have to work off of four year-old data.
Obama should not worry about making campaign stops in places like St. Louis and Cleveland. He needs to look at the map of places where Hillary Clinton did very well, and he needs to focus on holding down John McCain’s margins in those areas. Here’s what I’d like to see.
Obama and Biden should alternate playing offense and defense. Tomorrow is a great example. Obama will be playing offense in Norfolk, Virginia, while Biden will be playing defense in Nashua, New Hampshire. Everyday, one of them should be in a blue state and one of them should be in a red state. McCain is looking very weak in Iowa and New Mexico, and if Obama holds on to both of them (and all Kerry states) he will be at 264 electoral votes. The addition of Nevada would result in a 269-269 electoral college tie, which would be settled in Obama’s favor in the House of Representatives. Therefore, Obama has a very strong hand if he can just hold on to all the Kerry states.
McCain’s top two poaching opportunities are Michigan and New Hampshire. But McCain is also pressing in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. We have to keep an eye on Minnesota and Washington, as well, but McCain’s options are limited. For the defensive portion, either Biden or Obama should be visiting one of the following states almost every day: Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Washington.
On the offensive side, remember that we are looking to win Iowa and New Mexico and pick up just five additional electoral votes. Obviously, Ohio or Florida will do the job. So will Indiana or Virginia. So will North Dakota and Montana. So will Nevada. So will Colorado. So will North Carolina or Georgia or Mississippi.
So, Obama or Biden should be playing offense in one of those states every single day. Play offense and defense and alternate the roles every day. And focus on those areas within the battleground states where Obama did poorly in the primaries. The base will take care of business, but we can’t let McCain run up ridiculous margins in his areas. Trust your own base and go after McCain’s base.
