I firmly believe that Barack Obama is going to turn out his base without a lot of additional effort. I mean that Obama will get huge urban turnout, he’ll crush in college towns, he’ll get the Jewish vote in places like southeast Florida, Northern Virginia, and the Philly suburbs, and he’ll do very well with all core Democratic groups except lower class, low-education whites. Obama’s base is motivated, self-organized, and ready to go. John McCain doesn’t really have a base. But the addition of Sarah Palin allows McCain to tap into some of George Bush’s base. They are now more motivated to work for McCain but they don’t have much time to do voter registration and build lists. They’ll have to work off of four year-old data.
Obama should not worry about making campaign stops in places like St. Louis and Cleveland. He needs to look at the map of places where Hillary Clinton did very well, and he needs to focus on holding down John McCain’s margins in those areas. Here’s what I’d like to see.
Obama and Biden should alternate playing offense and defense. Tomorrow is a great example. Obama will be playing offense in Norfolk, Virginia, while Biden will be playing defense in Nashua, New Hampshire. Everyday, one of them should be in a blue state and one of them should be in a red state. McCain is looking very weak in Iowa and New Mexico, and if Obama holds on to both of them (and all Kerry states) he will be at 264 electoral votes. The addition of Nevada would result in a 269-269 electoral college tie, which would be settled in Obama’s favor in the House of Representatives. Therefore, Obama has a very strong hand if he can just hold on to all the Kerry states.
McCain’s top two poaching opportunities are Michigan and New Hampshire. But McCain is also pressing in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. We have to keep an eye on Minnesota and Washington, as well, but McCain’s options are limited. For the defensive portion, either Biden or Obama should be visiting one of the following states almost every day: Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Washington.
On the offensive side, remember that we are looking to win Iowa and New Mexico and pick up just five additional electoral votes. Obviously, Ohio or Florida will do the job. So will Indiana or Virginia. So will North Dakota and Montana. So will Nevada. So will Colorado. So will North Carolina or Georgia or Mississippi.
So, Obama or Biden should be playing offense in one of those states every single day. Play offense and defense and alternate the roles every day. And focus on those areas within the battleground states where Obama did poorly in the primaries. The base will take care of business, but we can’t let McCain run up ridiculous margins in his areas. Trust your own base and go after McCain’s base.
Come on Boo, we both know it: you’re putting lipstick on a pig.
But on a serious note, I like your offense-defense strategy.
Palin probably takes away the long shots like MS, NC and GA, and ND. This is the first I’ve heard of WA, which is a little worrisome.
If McCain wins Ohio, his hand is pretty darn strong too. McCain can lose a few small states and still win as long as he holds onto Ohio, and other Bush 04 states like Missouri, Virginia, Florida etc. I would put special emphasis on Ohio as MO, VA, FL are a little more instinctively red.
I live here, and I can tell you, there is no way Washington will go for McCain. Obama will win big in the Puget Sound counties, and that’s all he needs to take the state.
Maybe Boo meant to say “Oregon,” which is a little softer for the Dems and is more likely than Washington, although I doubt it will flip as well.
No, I mean Washington. The polls have softened a lot there.
I stand by what I said. McCain can campaign out here all he wants, and it might make some trouble for Gregoire (although I haven’t seen any recent polls to show how the Gregoire-Rossi race is shaping up), but he is not going to win Washington under any circumstances. As bad as the numbers at 538 were this morning Obama still wins in over 90% of the runs. I’ll take those odds.
OK, this has little to do with the polls but it’s about the Latino vote in Washington state. I thought you might be interested.
Obama campaign promises “unprecedented” Latino outreach in WA state
The basic problem the democrats have in this presidential campaign is they don’t have a clue as to what a campaign is. (Unfortunately Rove and Schmidt do understand only too well.) First and foremost a real campaign is not a debate of complex issues. For god sakes – we are talking about an electorate with the mental comprehension of a five year old!!!
No. A campaign is war to establish how you can define your opponent through a careful strategy of sound bites and images in the media. That is how Steve Schmidt, through the agency of McCain, Palin, and TV ads, have defined Obama as a vapid elitist celebrity with no substance. And that is how the McCain campaign stole Obama’s theme of change and turned it against him.
The Obama folk think a campaign is about the abstract talk of issues. Issues put the electorate to sleep. Schmidt knows that emotion and demonization are what reaches through to the primitive brain of the American electorate. They’ve known that for the last 2 presidential campaigns. Obama comes across weak and silly trying to defend himself against the Schmidt steam roll. Obama is always on the defensive – and always talking in a high falutin’ manner.
If Obama would take his gloves off and shed the “high road” approach, he might have a chance. But he has come out swinging and show some true emotion. People love a real fighter. He’s got smash through the bullshit of a Washington lobbyists’ pawn posing as a “maverick.” He’s got to connect with the American people as someone willing to fight with his bare knuckles for what he believes. Anything else is unacceptable and a recipe for defeat.
I don’t see much hope as the Obama campaign strategists are showing themselves to be the same clueless idiots that have lost the last 2 presidential elections. Forget about healthcare and get ready for astronomy classes showing how the world was created in six days.
Sad but true.
Right on the money.
AG
Yes, that is the reality of the situation. It probably explains the sick feeling I have in my stomach every day, all day. The caricature approach is working to perfection once again. It is working very well here. They’ve bought every lie and mis-characterization the Republicans are selling. Once again, facts don’t matter. Most “independent voters” that I know have settled on their vote already.
And it ain’t Obama.
And if Obama “comes out swinging” he looks like the Angry Black Man.
But you gotta take the risk! Too much micromanaging of “image.” Look, the Republicans have done very well by stiking to message and ignoring the background flaws, the Dems micromanage these things, and they aren’t important. McCain is filled with flip-flop flaws, Palin is a walking Rikki Lake show, but do they care? NO! They hammer their lies over and over and over, and get somewhere. Can’t the Dems do the same? Paralysis is not the way to win an election.
Via CNN:
Think about that for a minute. Let this sink in a little. We are now seriously considering, as a country, whether it is unfair to ask a candidate for office whether that person is even qualified for the position they are seeking.
Think about that. Do you know people who think it is not a valid question? I certainly do. Does that not scare the living shit out of you; as an American? We’re not talking about the silly personal issues here that they media loves to flog. We’re talking about whether it is acceptable for anyone to even question a candidate about their qualifications to hold office.
Damn! Do you see where this is going? What we are seeing might well be the beginning of the death throes for representative democracy in this country.
And I don’t for a minute think we are talking hyperbole here. This is getting into very, very dangerous territory.
Yes, I agree. This is very dangerous. Over at The Nation, Nicholas von Hoffman just wrote an article about state capitalism. Our nation has been transforming into CorporateControl for a while now, it’s almost complete. This echoes the media’s condemnation of any dissent at all.
I completely agree. Forget the issues, no one cares. These are American consumers you’re talkin’ about, they don’t recycle, they buy SUV’s, and get fat on bad food in front of their teevee’s.
It’s a battle, go for the kill. That’s how to beat the spinmeisters on the Republican side. One thing I can say for Clinton, I bet she would have whole-heartedly gone for the McCain/Palin jugular. Look at Kerry’s pathetic showing in ’04 (despite the fixing of elections). W was hated then, Iraq was a disaster, yet Kerry’s inability to fight equally against the spin tanked him. What an idiot! I fear Obama will make the same mistake, taking some mythical “high road”.
Hillary pulled the down-and-dirty card too soon in the primaries, and the public didn’t buy it, but it would have worked in the general.
Not that I have any hopes of real change under Obama, but an Obama administration will be the lesser of two evils, for sure.
The truthiness of your post has ruined my day.
Didn’t realize we had a lot of Jewish folks in NoVa.
I think we’re going to get the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico, right off the bat, honestly. I also think we’re going to get Colorado by a margin of about five points. That’s — what, 274?
I think we get Nevada by maybe three or four points.
Virginia, if I had to guess, I’d put in our column because of the ground game. I think it’s about dead-even here right now. I’m glad Kaine will be watching the voting machines.
Ohio, I’m guessing, will be a toss-up on election day. (As with Kaine, I’m glad Strickland is there.) But I can’t see us getting North Carolina or North Dakota.
I really don’t know what to make of my former home state, Florida. That Obama is as close as he is — and, granted, it’s come with a hell of a price tag, but still — stuns me. He’s even had the lead now and then. But I stand by my prediction that we don’t get it. Loss by four or five points, especially since the GOP actually has a ground game there.
Montana I don’t know well enough to venture a guess. I think we’re defying gravity there, so maybe we get it, but let’s wait for some more polls.
It grew. A lot.
Now a standalone post.
An Open Letter To Booman and Barack Obama. Now’s The Time.
Enjoy.
Or not.
As you must.
AG
McCain and Palin are limited on campaign events, because she cannot leave his side and campaign alone. They hold events in small venues, like 3,000 seat auditorium, in Lee Summit MO, to make it look like an overflow crowd. Obama was in KCMO, last winter and he had 14,000 people show up at Municipal Auditorium with 4,000 in the street. McCain is hyping his image, nothing more.
Biden should help with lower income white voters, especially men. You do not have to educated to understand when a candidate, McCain, does not care about your economic interest. A man married to 100 million dollar lady, who wears a $300,000 dollar outfit–a life time of money to some, owns 7 (+) houses, does not fill up his own car, is not going to stand up for the common working man.
In Lancaster, Pennsylvania, McCain and Palin had what was billed as a town hall but was actually a rally, with no questions or input from the 8,000 in the stadium.
Now Lancaster County is about the most Republican area of the state, but an outdoor Obama rally in Lancaster brought 10,000 plus in the same week. So he’s outdrawing McCain in places where there aren’t many Democrats.