I haven’t been sweating the polls and some people have been privately asking me why. First of all, convention bumps are historically temporary. The post-convention bump for McCain, which is already receding, is likely to be his high water mark during this campaign. Other than a brief period in early August, McCain was never ahead in this race until he held his convention. But, secondly, there is a much different reason why I am not sweating. You can see it in the internals of today’s Research 2000 tracking poll for Daily Kos.
DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
13-Sep 47% 47% 2% 2% 1% 1%
NE 39% 56% 1% 2% 1% 1%
SOUTH 56% 37% 3% 1% 1% 2%
MIDWEST 46% 49% 2% 2% 0% 1%
WEST 44% 50% 2% 1% 1% 1%
What do those internal numbers tell us? They tell us that Obama is ahead everywhere but in the South. The overall numbers show a 47%-47% tie, but that is deceptive. Obama is trailing by 19% in the south and leading by 17% in the Northeast. But all the key states (except Florida and Virginia) are outside of the South.
I’m not smug, and I don’t like looking at poll numbers that have tightened considerably in the battleground states. McCain is doing well enough at the moment to have a real chance of victory. But it remains true that McCain has to run the table. If Obama holds the Kerry states and wins New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico, it’s over…even if Obama loses Florida and Ohio and Virginia and Missouri, etc. And McCain is not showing real strength in any Kerry states.
So, I’m not happy, but I’m also not terribly worried. The Sarah Palin honeymoon is wearing off and we should see the numbers return to the status quo ante.