I’ve long felt that this election has the potential to tip from the type of toss-up contests we’ve become accustomed to into a blowout. We’re not yet seeing evidence of that in the presidential race, but the signs are beginning to show up in a big way in the congressional races. Just take a gander at the Swing State Project’s homepage this afternoon. The Democrats are now looking competitive in deep red seats in Idaho and Kentucky. Republican seats in New York state and Ohio are slipping out of their hands. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is suddenly looking very vulnerable. Elizabeth Dole is falling behind.
In some elections, one side essentially ‘wins the argument’. In 1972, 1980, and 1984, the Republicans won the national argument during the campaign and won everywhere. There were no blue states. This election, taking place in the context of economic catastrophe and at the tail end of the most unpopular presidency in modern history, has the same potential in the reverse. There could be no red states. Yes, it’s hard to believe it could happen and the presidential polls are not yet predicting it. But on the congressional level, the signs are beginning to show.
I can foresee strong Democratic gains in both the House and the Senate, even in a toss-up presidential election. But, if it becomes clear that Obama is a heavy favorite to win on election day, the depressed turnout of Republicans in both blue and red states could lead to absolutely astonishing gains for the Democrats in Congress.
The reason is simple. The Democrats have fielded candidates in almost every race, and many of them are modestly well-funded. If Republicans don’t turn out in New York and Illinois because they know their presidential vote won’t matter, the GOP could lose five or six additional seats in those two states alone. If Republicans don’t turn out in southern districts because the election seems hopeless, the huge black and youth turnout could swamp normally safe Republicans. We’ve seen Republicans lose special elections in the reddest parts of Mississippi and Louisiana. Anything can happen when you have a viable Democrat in the race.
The GOP desperately needs McCain to remain viable up to election day or they are at risk of a truly epic wipeout of up to 70 House seats and 13 Senate seats. That’s the high-end upside potential for this election. The low-end is losing the White House, picking up four Senate seats, and getting about a dozen new House seats.
So, keep up the fight. If we win the argument, anything can happen.
