If you tell someone that you don’t have the power to do something, it’s hard to convince them that you can accomplish it with more power. In all my time blogging, this simple concept has been more misunderstood than any other.
Star Trek fans are familiar with the spectacle of Chief Engineer and Second Officer Montgomery Scott (Scotty) telling Captain Kirk that he ‘has to have more power’. Well, sometimes you do. Sometimes you have power, but you don’t have enough to break out of the gravitational pull. Even the best and most conscientious political observers often let their frustrations cloud their judgment of what they are observing in Washington DC. And nowhere has this clouded judgment been more pronounced than in people’s estimation of the performance of Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Harry Reid.
They are leaders of the Democratic Party and Congress, but they are not dictators. They will express their opinion about the direction the caucus should go, but if they lose the argument you’ll never know they advised a different course. Their job is to usher through whatever strategy has been agreed to, and that is often a different strategy from the one they would have preferred. Oftentimes, they simply do not have the power to implement their best judgment.
When the Democrats come up against a brick wall (or when they cannot unite around a common purpose), the Republicans like to rub salt in their wounds: “Republicans, for their part, say it’s time for Democrats to acknowledge that they run Congress.” Democratic partisans often say the same thing. Yet, this is not necessarily a fair criticism. The Republicans make excellent use of the filibuster provision in the Senate, and they have the president’s veto. If the President doesn’t support a piece of legislation, it takes a united Democratic caucus and 17 Republican senators to override his veto. For this reason, the Democrats have simply lacked the power to do much in this Congress.
To be sure, if the Democrats had shown more unity, they could have accomplished more. They could have blocked a few judges. They could have stopped the FISA bill. They could, technically, have cut off funding for the occupation of Iraq. But too many critics judge the whole of the Democratic Party by what the worst of its members do.
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid often wind up looking like dupes when they are forced to pursue a rearguard strategy. But when your right flank breaks and begins to flee, a rearguard action is the appropriate maneuver. It’s just hard to be convincing when you describe your retreat as the plan all along.
You can see the gears grinding in Pelosi’s head as she tries to navigate the Big Shitpile Bailout.
The politics of the bailout are tricky and dangerous for both political parties, particularly since it comes weeks before the presidential and congressional elections.
As a result, Pelosi (D-Calif.) has effectively sent the message that if she is going to jump off a cliff to rescue Wall Street, she wants House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) and George W. Bush holding her hands when she leaps.
Or, in other words, Pelosi isn’t going to pass a bailout unless more than half of the Republican caucus votes for it. And Harry Reid sent a similar message:
In the Senate, Republicans have also lined up to oppose their president’s bill, which led Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to worry that he may not have enough Republican votes to pass the package.
“We need Republican votes to help us,” he said. “This is a Republican package and we need Republican votes.”
To get an idea of the scope of the problem, only one (anonymous) GOP member of the Senate Banking Committee is reported to support the bailout.
Reid said that his Democratic colleagues told him that as of Tuesday only one Republican on the Banking Committee could be counted on to vote for the bailout.
[Ed. note- by process of elimination, that one senator must be either Mel Martinez of Florida or Bob Bennett of Utah]
But, you ask, if the Republicans don’t support the bailout and the Democrats don’t support the bailout, then why would Reid and Pelosi be acting like they want to pass it? Here’s a clue:
The Dow Jones industrial closed down 161 points on Tuesday after a 372-point drop on Monday.
A jittery Wall Street awaits a bailout, and their jitters are contagious. The president and his economic advisers are issuing dire warnings of financial Armageddon if something is not done quickly. In this situation, with an election barely a month away, the avoidance of blame becomes of almost paramount concern. If nothing else, Bush has positioned himself to shift blame onto a slow-footed Congress if there is any dramatic decline in the fortunes of the national economy between now and election day.
Reid and Pelosi are under pressure to provide something. But the sheer size of the bailout proposal makes it of such lasting consequence that the issue cannot be treated as some football to be politically finessed in an election season. It is quite a quandary. No one wants to vote for the bailout. The Democrats certainly do not want to vote for it over nearly unanimous Republican opposition. To make it remotely palatable to the Democratic caucus they have to include provisions that make the Republicans even less inclined to do the president a solid.
And every day that the DOW Jones drops a few more hundred points makes everyone more nervous.
The trick is to try to do the right thing without getting hell for the results. That’s why you’re seeing things like this:
Rep. Jim Moran (D-Va.) said after Tuesday’s Democratic Caucus meeting that it will take 130 to 140 Republican votes to get the bill passed. “They’re going to have to take ownership,” Moran said.
“Ownership” was the word of the day Tuesday, as in, “Who’s going to own this bailout package if it fails?” or if it works and voters remain furious at seeing investment bankers on the public dole.
Rep. Moran is telling the Republicans that they will not get more than 68-78 Democratic votes for the bailout in the House. If they want the bailout, they have to step up and own the bailout. But, what’s going unsaid is that the Democrats won’t provide even those 70-80 votes unless the bill includes provisions on executive pay and homeowner relief.
Are the Democrats bluffing, or are they united? I don’t honestly know. If they’re paying attention to this morning’s Washington Post poll, they are most likely united.
Thanks for this, Booman. It’s very nice once in a while to get a realist take on how the slim majority in the Senate plus the veto make it very hard for the Dems to get things done.
Newt Gingrich and Pat Ruffini think this bailout could be a huge gift to Republican electoral prospects. But if most Republicans in the House and Senate, including John McCain, have to vote for it, then the Gingrich/Ruffini plan goes down in flames.
I really hate this bailout plan, I’m disgusted by the Bush administration’s attempts to scare the markets for political purposes, and yet I am optimistic that the bailout will not get passed, at least not at this size.
Who would vote for this unpopular stinker? Really? Progressive Dems don’t want to give a $700 billion check to Wall Street, not when priorities like Supertrains and health care and renewable energy get nothing. And conservative Republicans are obviously against further socialization of big business.
So tell me who is gonna vote for this thing? I think the Dow would have to drop 2000 points for politicians in both parties to get worried enough to vote for something. Right now this crisis looks like a sham, and the Bush team cannot be trusted.
Who would vote for this unpopular stinker?
Excellent point. The more that the administration balks at conditions, the less convinced I am about the urgency. If this were critical and urgent, you accept the conditions.
Why are Paulson and Bernake carrying water for Wall Street? I simply don’t understand the administration’s reluctance to cinch down on regulations.
I’m starting to think that the not-so-hidden side benefit of this bailout is to block progressive initiatives after the election. Say goodbye to health care reform, education initiatives, and open the discussion about privatizing entitlements.
This is a bad bill.
Yeah. Paulson saying that limits on executive compensation would make it so that the CEOs wouldn’t buy in was the nail in the coffin for me – he’s lying about something. Either things are so bad they WILL accept the condition and he’s just trying to keep the blow soft for his buddies, or things aren’t bad enough for us to worry about bailing them out. This feels like a shakedown and I don’t like it.
Paulson is their buddy – NEVER forget that he was CEO at Goldman-Sachs while they were porking it up at the trough and that he exited with a giant multi-million dollar payout to become the Sec. of Treasury. He’s looking out for his cronies, not for us.
And Bernanke – I suspect that Bernanke is in an actual panic. The Fed is like a game of musical chairs – none of the Chairmen are ever really quite sure of when a boom cycle is going to hit or when a bust cycle is going to hit. They can tinker, but when a bust comes it comes hard. So the trick is to get yourself put in as Chair at the start of a boom period and get out before the bust cycle becomes obvious. Greenspan played it perfectly, and he gets credit for being a “genius”. Bernanke is going to take the blame for whatever bust happens on his watch – even if it’s really Greenspan and the incessant deregulation of the last 30+ years that should actually take the blame. So he’s trying to make sure that the bust doesn’t hurt so much. If he can turn this into just a little “blip” he wins – he goes into the history books as a hero. Otherwise, he becomes at best an incompetent foolish figure and at worst a villain. Tough row to hoe, but the idiot should have seen the shitpile that Greenspan was dumping in his lap as he sauntered out the door.
as I’ve pointed out at brendancalling, not only is Paulson from Goldman, his “plan” (and I use that term loosely) benefits his former employer most of all!
Any bets on where Paulson’s finding work in the next few months when he leaves the public sector? And bets it rhymes with “Old man slacks”?
I don’t think Paulson is just working for his cronies directly. It goes deeper than that. He believes that the privilege and entitlement that go with being a member of the parasite class are the natural order of the universe. That’s the mindset they all get into and can’t shake. I think they know deep down that they are not worth nearly what they’ve taken, which only leads them to deny the reality all the harder. For the cronies and the rest of that class to lose their privilege would be to acknowledge that they never remotely deserved it in the first place.
“I’m starting to think that the not-so-hidden side benefit of this bailout is to block progressive initiatives after the election. Say goodbye to health care reform, education initiatives, and open the discussion about privatizing entitlements.”
BINGO!
Agreed, this whole business stinks to high heaven. I really don’t believe all the finance wizes and economists who are yelling about how the roof is on fire now that their high flying lifestyle is at risk. It’s only a market failure when it happens to you. I’m just going to pass along the same advice they gave to workers who had their jobs shipped to china – go back to school, retrain for a new job.
Fuck ’em. If this bailout goes through in any form resembing the current plan I’m just going to write off national government forever, perhaps George Carlin was right “this country was bought sold and paid for a long time ago.”
Finally I understand that Reed and Pelosi don’t have autocratic power, but it doesn’t take a singe vote NOT to pass a bill. Excuses are like assholes, everyone’s got one.
I really don’t see this as the conundrum you describe, Boo. Either let the Bush bill go down in flames with just enough Dem votes to put the blame on the Republicans, or don’t bring it up at all and substitute something like the Dodd bill (or preferably something stronger). Either way, the Bush bill is off the table and the Dems offer a relatively popular answer to the problem. Then it either gets passed and signed with GOP collusion or gets defeated or vetoed and the GOP takes the hit.
This is a case that tests Dem leadership at the most basic level. Either they show that they have ideas and principles that they are willing to go to the mat for, or they buckle yet again and throw away their last chance to be relevant. In a way I hope they blow it and cave because by doing so they will open the way for the collapse of both parties and the system that they feed off of. Now THAT would be change we can believe in.
Giving Wall Street a payout will be a huge mistake no matter how much pork the Dems (Obama) throw at deadbeat homeowners.
If we want to invest in the economic health of this country there are a lot better ways to do this: invest in infrastructure, shore up social security, provide a living wage, etc. Wasting 1 trillion on the guys that are most responsible for this mess is a moral crime. They will devour this 1 Trillion and then demand more and demand that middle-America give up it’s social security and its fair share of the benefits.
Giving 1 Trillion to Wall Street and a few hundred Billion to deadbead homeowners is not the solution. Nor is more of the same that got us into this mess (requiring Freddie and Fannie to give loans to people that don’t qualify, giving a 10 or 15 or 20K subsidy on new home purchases, giving the evil homebuilder companies subsidies, etc. etc.). Propping up the real estate market is what led to this problem and we need to stop it.
This will show that Democrats have finally betrayed the working families they pretend to support. Once and for all. Obama’s first instinct was to do all of the above (the worst possible) and take on Paulson as an adviser!!!! My God. He should be talking about indicting these guys or at least removing them from their positions!
We are doomed with these political retards as the only viable candidates on the Left (they aren’t even real Lefties–I know, it’s infuriating).
In the long-term theoretical view you’re probably right, but we’re talking political strategy here. What you want amounts to a revolution. That won’t be accomplished in a week or a few months. The Dems have to do something to show that they can. That, unlike yourself, they care about the victims of this ongoing scam.
We’re not going to get any far-seeing meta statesmanship in the midst of this panic peddling. I think politically the Dems’ best move is to let the GOP defeat the Bush proposition and bring up the smallest, most temporary substitute they can come up with. Let the congressional GOP and Bush either let it become law or take the fall for blocking it.
As long as we’re stuck in a two-party system, we’re not going to get real change from any politician. A Dem administration and Congress offers the best hope of opening some doors to real change if there is enough pressure to do so. In the real world, that’s our best option, sad as that may be.
is this the October Surprise?
what happens if the GOP folks vote against any bailout, distancing themselves from Bush, and Dems support a modified Bush bailout (in the name of “doing something”). and then as financial things continue to slide in the next 4 weeks, Obama and the Dems lose electoral ground?
whose ass is Barney frank kissing now?
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=1FE81F9534DCDD325474CFB57F14E9AE?diaryId=8475“>http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid…
The issue is that the GOP most certainly IS paying attention to that Obama +9 poll this morning. They’re running away harder from Bush on this than the Democrats are, particularly in the House.
There is no such thing as a safe House district this year if the current incumbent votes for this bailout, and that goes for both parties.
The Republican bailout won’t stabilize the economy anyway. The whole thing is bullshit, it’s just a heist. read this superb analysis from the Asia Times, where maybe they’re a tad more objective:
http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JI24Dj03.html
i agree. it is extortion.
whatever happened to Republican “values”?
you know:
trust the market to correct itself
stop throwing money at problems
they could have done this 6 months ago, but waited until just before the election.