I don’t think I’ve articulated this theory on the blog. I’ve, so far, reserved it for conversations with my friends. But for quite a while I’ve had a theory that Barack Obama would win this election if he ever, even for a moment, convinced 50% of the voters in this country to vote for him. Here’s my reasoning.
It’s obvious that the Bush administration has been a failure of epic proportions. It’s also obvious that the Gingrich Revolution is over and has failed. In the natural order of things, the Democrats will get a turn at the White House. Moreover, Barack Obama is a uniquely talented politician and leader. There’s simply no reason why he shouldn’t win, and McCain offers nothing convincing to suggest otherwise. Almost any Democrat would be favored to win this election over almost any Republican. Obama is certainly favored to beat McCain.
But…Obama is different. He’s biracial. He’s got a funny name. He’s had a meteoric rise and doesn’t have a tremendous amount of experience. He’s urban and urbane. He’s cosmopolitan, he’s Ivy League. In short, he has a cultural disconnect with a lot of American voters, including a lot of traditional Democrats. ‘Cultural disconnect’ could be a polite way of saying that this country has a lot of rednecks. And it does. But I don’t mean that term to be so harsh. A lot of people just have a hard time computing the idea of a guy like Barack Obama being president of the United States. A lot of people have to overcome a feeling of unease or discomfort. And that unease has held Obama’s numbers down in both the primaries and the general election.
But, the way I figure it, once someone overcomes that feeling of cultural alienation, even for a moment, and comes to accept the idea of Barack Obama as President of the United States, there is no going back. The argument in his favor is obvious, and no amount of fear-mongering is going to change the mind of someone once they have let their mind be opened. In other words, once a voter gets to the point where they will consider and accept the idea of a half-black president, the biggest obstacle has been overcome. At that point, you have to rely on winning the argument on its merits. You are now judging Obama by the content of his character and the worth of his ideas.
And once Obama convinced 50% of the people to do that? He had this thing won.
Let’s hope I am right.
