I’ve broken out my congressional forecast into four categories (or waves). And I have also separated the races out by region. Candidates in WAVE ONE are currently leading or even in the polls, and I fully expect the vast majority of them to win. Candidates in WAVE TWO are currently even or narrowly behind in the polls, and I expect at least 75% of them to win. Candidates in WAVE THREE are currently behind in the polls, but not by an insurmountable amount. Many of them are getting assistance from the DCCC’s Red-to-Blue program. They need a little help to get them over the top. As of right now, I only expect about 25% of them to win. Yet, if the momentum continues in the current direction, it’s very possible that more than half of them will be victorious. Candidates in the WAVE FOUR category are likely to lose. But, if McCain’s support craters in their state (as is has recently in Michigan and Virginia) anything can happen. There’s more analysis at the bottom.
NORTHEAST (ME, VT, NY, MD, PA, CT, DE, MA, NH, RI, WV, NJ)
WAVE ONE- NY13- Mike McMahon
WAVE ONE- NY25- Dan Maffei
WAVE ONE- NJ03- John Adler
WAVE ONE- NJ07- Linda Stender
WAVE ONE- PA03- Kathy Dahlkemper
WAVE ONE- MD01- Frank Kratovil
WAVE TWO- CT04- Jim Himes
WAVE TWO- NY26- Alice Kryzan
WAVE TWO- NY29- Eric Massa
WAVE THREE- NJ05- Dennis Shulman
WAVE THREE- PA15- Sam Bennett
WAVE THREE- WV02- Anne Barth
WAVE FOUR- NJ04- Josh Zeitz
WAVE FOUR- PA06- Bob Roggio
WAVE FOUR- PA18- Steve O’Donnell
MIDWEST
(IL, MN, MI, OH, WI, IA, MO, KS, IN, ND, SD, OK, TX, NE, CO)
WAVE ONE- OH01- Steve Driehaus
WAVE ONE- OH07- Sharon Neuhardt
WAVE ONE- OH15- Mary Jo Kilroy
WAVE ONE- OH16- John Boccieri
WAVE ONE- MI07- Mark Schauer
WAVE ONE- MI09- Gary Peters
WAVE ONE- IL11- Debbie Halvorson
WAVE ONE- MN03- Ashwin Madia
WAVE ONE- CO04- Betsy Markey
WAVE TWO- OH02- Vic Wulsin
WAVE TWO- IN13- Mike Montagano
WAVE TWO- IL10- Dan Seals
WAVE TWO- MN06- Elwyn Tinklenberg
WAVE TWO- MO09- Judy Baker
WAVE THREE- OH03- Jane Mitakides
WAVE THREE- IL13- Scott Harper
WAVE THREE- MN02- Steve Sarvi
WAVE THREE- IA04- Becky Greenwald
WAVE THREE- MO06- Kay Barnes
WAVE THREE- NE02- Jim Esch
WAVE THREE- TX07- Michael Skelly
WAVE THREE- TX10- Larry Joe Doherty
WAVE FOUR- IL06- Jill Morganthaler
WAVE FOUR- IL18- Colleen Callahan
WAVE FOUR- IA05- Ron Hubler
WAVE FOUR- OK01- Georgianna Oliver
SOUTH
(FL, NC, SC, AL, MS, GA, VA, TN, KY, LA, AR)
WAVE ONE- KY02- David Boswell
WAVE ONE- VA11- Gerry Connelly
WAVE ONE- NC08- Larry Kissell
WAVE ONE- FL08- Alan Grayson
WAVE ONE- AL02- Bobby Bright
WAVE TWO- VA02- Glenn Nye
WAVE TWO- VA10- Judy Feder
WAVE TWO- FL21- Raul Martinez
WAVE TWO- FL24- Suzanne Kosmas
WAVE TWO- FL25- Joe Garcia
WAVE TWO- LA04- Paul Carmouche
WAVE THREE- SC01- Linda Ketner
WAVE THREE- FL09- Bill Mitchell
WAVE THREE- FL18- Annette Taddeo
WAVE THREE- AL03- Josh Segall
WAVE FOUR- VA05- Tom Perriello
WAVE FOUR- NC10- Dan Johnson
WAVE FOUR- SC02- Rob Miller
WAVE FOUR- FL13- Christine Jennings
WAVE FOUR- FL15- Steve Blythe
WAVE FOUR- LA01- Jim Harlan
WAVE FOUR- LA04- Don Cravins
WEST
(NM, CA, OR, WA, AK, HI, MT, ID, UT, NV, AZ, WY)
WAVE ONE- WYAL- Gary Trauner
WAVE ONE- NM01- Martin Heinrich
WAVE ONE- NM03- Harry Teague
WAVE ONE- AZ01- Ann Kirkpatrick
WAVE ONE- AZ03- Bob Lord
WAVE ONE- WA08- Darcy Burner
WAVE ONE- AKAL- Ethan Berkowitz
WAVE TWO- CA04- Charlie Brown
WAVE TWO- NV03- Dana Titus
WAVE THREE- NV03- Jill Derby
WAVE THREE- CA50- Nick Liebham
WAVE FOUR- ID01- Walt Minnick
WAVE FOUR- CA03- Bill Durston
WAVE FOUR- CA26- Russ Warner
WAVE FOUR- CA41- Tim Prince
WAVE FOUR- CA45- Julie Bornstein
WAVE FOUR- CA46- Debbie Cook
WAVE FOUR- CA52- Mike Lumpkin
Analysis: There are 27 candidates in the WAVE ONE category. I currently project that the Democrats will lose two seats (PA11- Paul Kanjorski and FL16- Tim Mahoney). So, by my most conservative estimate, the Democrats will pick up a net of 25 seats in the House of Representatives. However, I think we’re currently looking as about a WAVE 2.5 election. What I mean by that is that I anticipate that we’ll win all the WAVE ONE elections, about 75% of WAVE TWO elections, and approximately 25% of WAVE THREE elections. I think we’ll also win a couple of seats in WAVE FOUR, possibly including races that are not even on my radar (like Carol Shea-Porter, in 2006). To break that out for you:
WAVE ONE: 27 seats
WAVE TWO: 18 seats (x .75= 14 seats)
WAVE THREE: 17 seats (x .25= 4 seats)
WAVE FOUR: 21 seats (x .10= 2 seats)
That works out to 47 pick-ups and 2 losses, for a net pickup of 45 seats. That would put the composition of the House at 281 Democrats and 154 Republicans. That is my current prediction, but it can grow or shrink depending on the trajectory of the economy and the presidential race.
