DemFromCT points something interesting out. The ABC/WaPo tracking poll shows Obama outperforming Kerry with every group except liberals.
Having lived among liberals for this entire campaign season, it’s easy to see why. We’re thinking too hard. If you are a liberal, and you are not giddy with excitement at this moment, you need find a bottle of alcohol and loosen up. Let me explain something to my liberal worry-warts.
If Al Gore had taken office in 2001, and he had won re-election, we would right now be organizing to get Joe Lieberman elected because at least he isn’t as bad as the Republican. Okay?
But not only that, in 2004, John Kerry begged and pleaded with John McCain to be his running mate. If McCain had accepted his offer and they had won the presidency, we’d all be working to reelect John McCain right now, not defeat him.
There are few things I don’t like about Obama and a few more things I don’t like about Joe Biden. Fortunately, they kind of cancel each other out. Biden has been wrong on bankruptcy law and the AUMF-Iraq. Obama was right. Obama was wrong on FISA. Biden was right. But, any way you slice it, we haven’t had a ticket this liberal since, what, 1984? And we didn’t do so well in that election. So, any of you disaffected liberals out there…get over yourselves. Join the party, and join the fun.
My first presidential election vote was in 1980. That was 28 years ago and this is the first time in all that stretch that I really feel like we actually have some kind of chance to see what a truly liberal agenda will look like in action.
The only question will be whether Obama, if elected, will go in that direction with the vigor we are hoping for. It is really uncharted territory in my lifetime.
you can make all kinds of analogies, but how about this?
You observe a zoo animal for thirty years and get to know their habits, their likes and dislikes, the way they interact with the zookeeper, etc.
Then you set the animal loose in the wild? Will it’s behavior surprise you, or be just what you expected?
And, for the animal itself, how long will it take for it to realize it is free?
So many people, and that includes myself at times, remind me of the Morgan Freeman character in The Shawshank Redemption. When he was released from prison after spending almost his entire life under the authoritarian thumb of the system, he found he was living in what to him was a totally foreign environment. He had no idea how to function or react in his new world. For the first time in his life, he alone was responsible for making the decisions in his life. He had to totally relearn all the simple decision making skills he had lost touch with over the years as a result of being under someone else’s control. I see a lot of that same dysfunction in liberals.
yes, that’s a perfect analogy.
Mike, 1980 was my first presidential election as well.
This is the first time in my life that I feel truly good about my candidate. I am doubly pleased to also feel good about his chances
I hearken back to all the times I looked at the crowd in this picture from the Washington Mall on August 28, 1963. The hope and anticipation there must have been in the crowd on that day.
And I compare it to this from last week in St. Louis.
Has their been any greater excitement in this country among citizens in the last 45 years than what is demonstrated by all those people gathered in the shadow of the Gateway Arch in St. Louis? We are standing on the doorstep and knocking on the door of what could be an historic and transformational event. There is only one question remaining. Will we open that door and let it in or will we just stand back, peeking out through the curtains until the opportunity walks away from our door?
We’ll know the answer to that question in 13 days.
Liberals maxed out on Kerry. There is a hard-core bunch of wack libs who will vote only for Kucinich, Nader or others. That’s the 15 %. Kerry got the rest, and so does Obama.
It’s a ceiling effect.
it’s a stupid effect.
And it’s much more widespread than just the 15% that won’t vote the ticket.
I had an email yesterday from one rather prominent blogger who is reluctantly supporting Obama, that said that Obama is a moderate conservative. And this guy said that as a criticism after supporting Hillary all through the primaries.
The stupid lives. Even among our brethren.
Armando…er ah…Big Tent Democrat?
Nope.
It’s not that I’m not excited; it’s not that I’m a dead-ender; it’s not that I need to loosen up.
I remember 2004, as Philadelphia literally erupted with joy on election day because it looked like Kerry was goign to pull it off. I remember a whole crew of door-knockers like me, literally dancing down Broad Street. And then Ohio hit like a texas-sized cocaine-and-bourbon hangover.
So while I am really excited, I’m tempering any exuberance until the election is over and Obama is in office. I may even wait until January, when the lame-schmuck adminsitration slinks out the door.
So by all means, be excited, but let’s not celebrate until this thing is won.
I love you, brendan. And for all your gnashing of teeth and threats to not vote for this ticket, you’re going to do it and do it proudly and be excited about it.
And, no, the skies will not open up and money won’t come raining down on the plebs and whatever else Hillary said wouldn’t happen. But this is as good as it gets. For now.
You haven’t been reading my blog lately, have you? (video at last link via puddle powe)
I’m still not a big fan of Obama, but as you correctly point out, he was right on bankruptcy and biden was right on FISA. Whether that leads to necessary reforms is another story, but that story itself is predicated on an Obama/Biden win and long coattails. if we get in a lot more better democrats, we may see bankruptcy (re)reformed and see the restoration of our rights.
Win or lose. You need to own piece of this historic event.
You can’t look back. If you refuse to vote in 2008, you’ll get President Palin. Count on it.
We need every vote to counter what could be the Bradley effect.
Right on. Stop the hand wringing. Even the Drudge, the assignment editor, is hopping on board. He has put up his assignment for the next few days- editors and lazy journalists will take their cue. Landslide like Reagan citing the unreliable Zogby. I see an agenda to get us complacent. But
I wanna encourage
Shop On, Sarah Palin, Shop On baby.
as per (Hilzoy) It’s good for up end retail sales and a few more moderate pissed-off Republican votes being directed our way. Average ‘hard working, small town, rural, pro-Americans’ can’t shop at Saks, Atelier or Neiman Marcus…not even for a pair of socks or half a pair.
That’s quite some week McPalin is having, huh?
Well, I’m as liberal as they come. I supported Kucinich in the primaries because none of the front runners were too moderate for my tastes.
The primaries are over. Do I still wish Obama was more progressive? Yup. Do I get that none of the issues I care about — health care, security, the economy, the environment and LGBT economy — will fare well under a McCain/Palin administration? (Or a Palin/whoever-she-would-pick-as-veep administration?) Yup.
My decision is to support Obama for election, and once he’s elected join what I hope will be thousands of other progressive activists in pushing an Obama administration and a majority Democratic congress to take more progressive positions.
That, to me, is when the real work begins.
you’re going to have a lot of company.
I’m with you. And I share your hope. My main problem is that the primaries and the general were the time to get Obama to throw us some bones. Democrats always make the wink and nod argument to liberals that they are really on our side and as soon as things get safe for them to vote our way they will.
Well, this landslide, if it does happen, will finally give the Democrats the cover they say they needed. They better start coming up with liberal ideas to fix the mess this country is in. That’s about the only thing that will turn it around.
No more excuses. Let’s put Kucinich in the cabinet!
Liberal dead ender is apparently the new purity troll. Maybe you need to add to the title, BooMan.
This is one dead ender that is suspicious of Obama. I will join you briefly in celebration as America demonstrates not all is lost and that we have enough good sense to reject the ugly politics of modern conservatism–at least for now. I will be very happy John McCain is not President.
But I am not foolish enough to think that Obama shares my liberal agenda. In fact, he seems somewhat hostile to it.
Obama, the man, was able to overcome the hatred from the Right. Just as Bill Clinton, the man, was able to vanquish the conservatives. It drives conservatives crazy and I look forward to Obama driving them crazy just like Bill did. But Clinton and Obama are unique examples. They used their unique personalities to win. They didn’t win by running on liberal ideas. They ran away from as many liberal ideas as the party would let them. That’s their whole strategy. Like Clinton, Obama may win the public’s support during his presidency, but at a cost of jettisoning his liberal brethren and liberal agenda. I remember Clinton more for beating back the insane politics of destruction from the Right than I remember him for his policy achievements.
My problem is that Obama is a conservative Democrat. He is more likely to reach out to the right wing than he is to reach out to liberals. Will he put a real liberal on his cabinet? I bet he is more likely to put a right-winger on his cabinet than a liberal. Name me one bone Obama has thrown liberals. I can name you a bunch of punches to the nose he’s given liberals. All he does is ask us to support him as he votes against our interest with a wink and a nod that he’s on our side, for reals.
Why should liberals be excited over the policy issues? Will Obama compromise with Republicans on Social Security? Will he fight for the middle class and reform bankruptcy and ensure corporations honor their pension promises? Will he give more “stimulus” to banks so that they are able to lend to us consumers again (at interest of course)? Will he remedy and punish the illegal actions of the Bush administration? How many more wars will he start? On almost all of these issues Obama disagrees with liberals and is closer to the Republican position.
Plus, I fear and expect the right to return. Their tactics have been wildly successful for almost 4 decades and I’m not yet ready to consign them to history’s dustbin. They are setting up the myth that the election was stolen and that the blacks are ruining the economy for real Americans like Joe the Plumber (see e.g., http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/18/164724/48/474/633127 ).
This is from January 18th. Haven’t you been paying attention all this time?
He wants a mild revision of the bankruptcy laws to protect one type of debtor. Yes. It’s better than the Republicans. But not by much. In fact, it may be worse because it has the negative side effect of making liberals and Democrats feel like they’re doing something good (reforming bankruptcy laws) when they’re not.
Plus, forgive me for not searching the internet for vague promises from 9 months ago to kind of, around the edges, fix bankruptcy laws.
We’ll see of course but one would have thought Obama would have been more vocal about bankruptcy reform the last couple of weeks if he truly intended to fight to change it.
Very typical of conservative Dems. Agree with Republicans on the general idea (bankruptcy laws needed to be made harsher to prevent all those deadbeat minorities cheating the system) but pretend you have a heart by moderately opposing one aspect of the system and therefore positioning yourself squarely in the “middle”.
As far as the usury laws obama appears to be proposing . . . . same thing . . .. military personell get some protection . . . . blah blah blah.
you misread that. Military personnel already get protection. Obama proposed to extend that protection to everyone. He also proposes to basically federalize the work ACORN does helping people stay in their homes, understand finance, and avoid usury.
You really don’t know what you’re talking about. Sorry to say it, but you don’t.
Here’s just a small piece of Obama’s Urban Agenda
If you’re trying to convince me that Obama is progressive on bankruptcy reform and usury laws then I’m afraid you really don’t know what you’re talking about. Nice try. Keep googling.
He’s led on this issue more than any other senator and has consistently campaigned on it. I guess you want Huey Long and won’t be satisfied until you get him.
Nice–I should be happy that my “liberal” candidate wants to cap loans at 36%. If I want to define usury as something less than 36% (which most of the civilized world does–including the United States in the past) then I’m a radical leftist on par with Huey Long. If I want the bankruptcy laws that the Democratic party used to fight for 20 years ago then I’m a “socialist” or something. Nice.
And you wonder why the Left isn’t jumping up and down for Obama. All you do is punch us in the face and call us the same names that the Right does. (dean ender is a nice twist though).
I also am leary of BO. This is from the perspective of the various ways he campaigned by attacking liberal positions from the right. That was the primary season but that two week period of running to the center and taking for granted my vote against McPalin was very tough. The gamble of the FISA bill along with the Bailout has been very hard to take.
That being said, I am still bringing dinner to the Bristol field office tonight for those people grinding it out. I think that BO will have to govern a lot like FDR where he wouldn’t do something unless pushed.
If/When he wins a lot of my support will be based upon cabinet picks and how he deals with the Bush legacy. If Cass Sunstein is able to prevail and they do not prosecute Bushies then I will be truly pissed. There are quite a few people from the current administration who should be banned from government for life if not jail/huge fines.
A good start for BO on inaguration day would be to have an executive order handy closing Gitmo with appropriate handling of the few actual terrorists. And sign it with W watching.
Just my two cents
–bille
And sign it with W watching.
Oh, that WOULD be good. Justice would be done, and shrub would be put in his place.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Hold on.
15% for McCain and 13% for Bush in 2004?
No, those aren’t liberals. Those are Republicans who don’t want to identify as conservatives. If they were liberals, it would be 15% for Kucinich.
you’ve got a bit of a math problem there. Fifteen percent of liberals doesn’t translate to fifteen percent of the electorate.
Liberals are probably the smallest group within the subgroupings. First you take the percentage of the electorate that self-identifies as Democratic (in the 30’s), then you subdivide that into conservatives, moderates, and liberals. Then you take 15% of the liberals. What % of the total electorate is that? Only a couple of percentage points.
Oops. My math is a little off. You start with the total electorate, not just self-identified Dems. That makes it harder to believe the 15% number, but it’s still a low number, well under 10%.
The math is irrelevant, I was simply using shorthand and didn’t say what you thought I said.
What I am saying is 1 out of 6 REAL liberals don’t vote for the Republican every time out.
Rather, these are people such as Republicans from Northern states and coastal states who are identifying as liberal. They might be socially liberal and run from the label of conservative, but they still might want to “kill all those terrrists.” I know a few of them, and I don’t consider them liberal, because they are inclined to vote for Republicans (who have a blatantly anti-liberal agenda) over Democrats.
Yeah, I’ve got to agree. If those numbers were for Nader or something then I might go along with the idea that they’re counting the real liberals I know who are angry that the Democratic party is too moderate.
But none of those folks I know like voted for Bush. Ever. Which means that the folks in those numbers are people who self-identify as liberals but who don’t live that way. Californians who think of themselves as liberals because they don’t have any animosity towards gay people, but they vote Republican because they don’t like to pay taxes. People like that.
Stomach. Still. In. Knots.
OK, I admit it. And I am ashamed. But I am scared that maybe enough white folks will say, I’m about to vote for who? Hell no. Can’t do it. coupled with a healthy fear of challenging enough votes on bogus charges to steer the outcome.
I know. It’s not rational. Polling is better than it was 20 years ago. The statewide races in Texas, Tennessee and Massachusetts (Kirk, Ford, Patrick) were all accurate to what was predicted. The registration numbers are way up; the under-35 numbers are up. Lines are long, and people are voting early. People are telling me they voted early. Tens of thousands attend his rallies and volunteer; millions have donated.
Maybe it’s because it’s because we have so much riding on this, and we’ve been so close before. I feel like we’re on the cusp of finally, FINALLY ending this conservative nightmare. The world is watching is watching–they’re tired of catching hell, too.
Please don’t think I’m a bad person. I really am ashamed to admit this. I want to believe this is happening but the nervousness is never far behind.
I won’t believe it until they declare it for him.
Being good or bad isn’t defined by what you expect will happen, but what you hope will happen.
Oh, thanks! But it rather strikes me that I should have more faith in my fellow citizens than that…and that I should not have a spirit of fear. I’ve seen so much that is positive and heartwarming, and I have a pit in my stomach??
I thought it was just caution, but I really do have a healthy bit of fear. Or maybe the point is that it’s a bit UNhealthy. 🙁
Why? They let Bush steal an election, then reelected him after 9/11 and the Iraq war. His party remains in the double digits even after the economy implodes. I’d say your fellow citizens don’t merit any trust whatsoever.
McCain could still win, not to mention “win,” but as the saying goes: if you can affect it, why worry? And if you can’t, why worry?
🙂
Oh yeah, there is that. 🙂 Well, I’ll re-phrase: I should have more hope than that.
But yeah, I’ve been disappointed more times that I have not.
Isn’t 2% (15% – 13%) within the MoE?