I am no fan of James Carvile and Stan Greenberg, but their pre-election surveys and polling are excellent and I think they’re right:
Two Democratic pollsters and strategists predicted Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will win the presidential election in a landslide, and that there will be no Republican infrastructure left standing after Election Day.
“There’s basically going to be nothing left standing,” strategist James Carville said Friday.
Carville and pollster Stan Greenberg, talking to reporters at a breakfast hosted by The Christian Science Monitor, said Republicans are poised to not just lose an election, but lose a generation as well.
The two well-known Democratic players also said the 2008 election will, from top to bottom, mirror the Democratic wins of 2006.
“We haven’t had two wave elections like this,” Greenberg said.
But, as with the Republicans strategists, these two ass-clowns have no idea how to prognosticate absent some hard data in the here and now. Polls and surveys tell you how people feel in the present, but they do nothing to tell you how people will feel on election day and during the early voting period. What good is it to poll a congressional race in August when the challenger has no name recognition? You have to look at their fundraising, look at their web-page, analyze the demographics of their disrict, assess the vulnerabilities of the incumbent, and check the voter registration surge to see if it will change things.
Whether it’s Carville and Greenberg, Stu Rothernberg, Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, or Chris Cillizza, they all do their prognostications based on current polling numbers. If a candidate is not ahead in a poll, they simply won’t predict that they will win. What good is that? We can all use the intertubes to collate polling data. If you wanted to know in April whether the Democrats might realistically get 60 votes, you should have been listening to me, not any of these ‘analysts’. Even today, they still insist on basing their predictions on current polling data. What they should be doing is looking at each remotely competitive congressional race and looking at both the voter registration dynamics and the presidential polls (including early voting, where available).
That’s a big job. It would take me an entire day to do it and I don’t have access to the same quality of data. But isn’t that what these guys are paid to do?
this year is different Boo. They have a new metrics.
They took a look at who is endorsing Obama and saw there’s no one left to hold up the infrastructure.
Just this week:
Gone over to Obama are:
Powell
Adelman
Goldwater’s grand daughter
Scottie McClellan, former WH press secretary
former GOP governors Arne Carlson (Minn) and Bill Weld (Mass)
McCain’s legal advisor Charles Fried (legal scholar, Reagan Solictor General)
Carville’s FACE could wipe out the GOP.
But when the paradigm changes, the last people to know are the folks using the old paradigm to predict things.
In May I predicted a pick-up of twelve Senate seats. Right now, I want to revise that down to 9 or 10.
In May, I predicted we’d win the following 10 seats:
Begich, Musgrove, and Franken are still a little dicey, and it doesn’t look good for Noriega. So, instead of 10, I’ll revise this down to 8.5 (although, it could be as low as six).
Then I predicted that we’d win at least 2 of the following:
If Lunsford and Martin pull it out, I think we’ll get to 10 or 11, but not the 12 I predicted in May. I think it’s more likely that one of them will win than both, so I’ll stick with an estimate of 9.5 (or 9-10 Senate pick-ups).
The low-end, is seven, the high end is eleven. But, maybe just maybe, Scott Kleeb can still make some magic happen and Noriega can surge at the end.
Sweet analysis Boo and I always wondered why these guys are in such high regard.
My man Kleeb is trying but just too many dead end Republicans in denial in the Husker state. The 3rd district could not be more red.
This needs to stop.
Joe the Plumber for Congress?
On the radio, Joe Wurzelbacher just told Laura Ingraham that he’d be open to running for Congress in Toledo, OH.
And yet he’s not even registered to vote.
IIRC, he’s registered to vote under his real first name – Sam, not Joe. (Joe’s his middle name).
Of course, the other part of the story is that it’s misspelled in the voter registration records, so if the Ohio GOP had their way he’d be tagged as a fraudulent voter and his vote would be thrown out.
.
(National Post) Oct. 23, 2008 – The campaign to put John McCain in the White House is coming down to a few desperate fights in some key states that could bring the Republicans the 270 electoral votes they need for victory on Nov. 4. And nowhere is this last-stand mentality being played out more clearly than in Pennsylvania …
McCain continues to pour money and resources into the state and has made it one of his most prominent stops on his travels – he was in the state three times on Tuesday.
Prof. Miller believes there is an unspoken hope among McCain supporters there are “enough people in Pennsylvania who would not be able in the end to pull a lever for a black man.”
McCain to increase advertising in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida
In e-mail statement, he calls on top aides to “Let John McCain be John McCain”
WASHINGTON DC (Baltimore Sun) Oct. 14, 2008 – Frustrations inside John McCain’s camp boiled over on the eve of the third presidential debate as the candidate’s brother unleashed an e-mail blasting the campaign’s “counter-productive” strategy.
“Let John McCain be John McCain,” wrote Joe McCain in a missive sent out shortly before midnight Monday. “Make ads that show John not as crank and curmudgeon but as a great leader for his time.”
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."yesterday Drudge, the media’s assignment editor, gave the marching on McCain’s campaign worker being mugged and mutilated by a guess who? –
Turns out it was a hoax….race baiting, the hoax in Pennsylvania
Fox VP now says: Hate crime hoax means McCain’s campaign is over, forever linked to race-baiting
Thinkprogress
methinks this little bit of improv theatre may have sealed the deal in PA.
tbogg called it for what it is: B is for bullshit.
the comment section is great, btw.
This Todd girl’s crime so upset me on multiple levels. (How odd that she shares a name w/ AK 1st Dude!) But as Susan Smith’s BS rose above the chatter, so did hers. I’m so tired of lame excuses. This new case knew what she was doing, as surely as Susan Smith. One killed her babies; the other thought she, in her white womanhood, could do the same thing to the campaign. How presumptuous to think you’re so above this wonderful movement because of … what? Obviously, as w/ Sarah, she over-thought her power to touch the baseless. They do not have the power. Sarah’s $20K+ per 2 weeks+ sex-her-up shit can only last so long. There’s only so much a hustler can do (Larry Flint got that one right). This Todd girl, give me a break! Can I one day see a US where we can raise our sons and not have to teach them these lessons of carefulness around this kind of crazy? I’ve raised my son to see the content of the person, and I’ll be damned if we ruin his generation w/ this BS. His friends (World in our house!) call me Aunt. They don’t give a damn that we’re multi-everything. Still, in reality, and because of these crazies, to protect my child, I do caution him whilst out there. Let’s call this BS what it is: St. E. Crazy (equiv. to straight-jacket-time for their minds). It has no place in the 21st Century, Humanity’s Century.
And while I’m still on my rant, never again will I allow anyone to call people “refugees” in their own country. I was a refugee and was so upset with the totally of Katrina that I went to NOLA on my simple penny and met and helped the most amazing humans. I gained so much more from that experience than anything I’ve ever done thus far. All of my life’s experiences are why I’m so passionate and vested in this election. Thought!