Whether people are stealing McCain signs out of people’s yards or people are just removing them from their yards on their own, there are noticeably less McCain signs in Chester County, Pennsylvania than there were in September. Roughly 90% of the signs I’m seeing that are actually on someone’s property (versus, on public land) are for Democratic candidates. And this is an historically Republican county.
The latest Pew Research poll tells the story.
Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.
McCain cannot afford to crater late because he already has a major built-in deficit that he must overcome on election day.
Just as ominous for the Republican candidate, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16% of voters), 56% support Obama, while 37% support McCain.
In other words, Obama is running 19 points ahead right now. That would be a total wipeout with staggering downticket fallout. McCain should be able to close the gap a little on Election Day, but the survey shows that McCain is trailing by 18 points among people that plan to vote on election day.
A big premise of the Republican spinmeisters is that the undecided voters will break late for John McCain, but it doesn’t look like that is happening. I think McCain voters are actually changing their minds as they realize that their candidate is unlikely to win.
I have always thought that this election would break very hard in one direction or the other. One candidate was going to win the argument and we would not see another nailbiting election. I think we’re beginning to see that now.
or in my town. But when Kerry ran, there were almost no – and I mean no – Kerry signs in Grand Rapids. There are tons of Obama signs here this time around. I suspect that there will be pockets of counties and such where McCain will win, SW corner of the state where I live. But I believe MI will go to Obama big overall.
He’s polling over 20% ahead in Michigan.
I was just out in Grandville two weeks ago – it was a sea of McCain signs. Not too many McCain/Palin signs, tho.
Spent almost a week there – great people, although there were some underlying hints. Two separate but similar conversations with people who told me that Detroit and Flint, wink, wink, gave MI a bad rap.
Such is life. I wasn’t there to convert anyone, and these folks were all participating in a community project. No lectures from me – less than 2% minority in NH.
I’m in GR proper, as it were, NW side of the city. More support for Obama right here, less in a burb like Grandville. The further you move toward the lake from here, the more red the state.
Good people, though, like you said – at least by and large. They are right, though, and I’ve known it for a long time – when this state goes blue, its because of the eastern half of the state.
So will the undecided voters that were McCain supporters actually switch to Obama, vote third party, or sit this one out?
Obama doesn’t seem to be gaining above the low 50s (which is fine 53-47 is a good win and I would not be surprised to see something like a 10 point spread) so I wonder what the margin will be. We’ll see if tomorrow’s VOWE will help him push a few more into his column.
I keep wondering whether Barr will end up with a much higher total than anybody’s predicting. Or will disenchanted Reps just stay home? We’ll see very soon.
Well, Pew isn’t the most reliable poll and looks like an outlier at this point. Still, I’m sticking to the prediction I made a year or so ago: Obama by 10. And it looks like the electoral college will be even more impressive.
Some liberal hangouts are now worrying about complacency lowering turnout for our side. I just don’t see it. The early voting doesn’t show it, and Obama’s folks want to make sure his margin is absolutely beyond the reach of election rigging. There is a feeling of triumphalism (mixed with some disbelieving apprehension), but I think that’s driving turnout, not suppressing it. OTOH, the sense I get from McCain fans is gloom bordering on shame. If anything, it will be their turnout that underperforms expectations.
Boo, I thought you lived in Philadelphia. Republican county?
I moved to the suburbs. There are trees here and everything. It’s weird.
PA or NJ? (I’m being nosy because
a) I’m a secret agent for Gonzales
or
b) I have inlaws across the river and we might end up moving around there.)
Chester Co., PA.
BooMan,
from your mouth to the software in the E-voting machines.
polls notwithstanding,
when Obama is certified. for me three isn’t a charm.
that said, I expect a huge turnout with the polls closing before several deep get to vote.
I think they have to let anyone vote who is in line by closing time, isn’t that correct?
Turnout’s the key. I’m up here in Canada with my fingers crossed that Obama’s now much-vaunted machine can pull in the big numbers. What that could do for our downticket candidates is almost beyond belief.
Hope the weather holds up.
I’m in upstate New York, and I keep a pretty close eye on the yard signs hereabouts. What I notice is McCain signs at generic roadside locations, among the clutter of signs at a busy intersection. What this says to me is that the campaign paid some teenagers to go out and plant a bunch of signs wherever they could. Obama signs tend to be in somebody’s front yard, put there by the owner. And there are lots of creative homemade signs for Obama– not a single one of those for McCain.
same thing here, except that what few McCain signs there were are disappearing.
I live in the exurbs of Minneapolis and in 2004 it was all Bush signs, sometimes more than one per yard! My lonely Kerry sign went missing several times, I guess no dissent allowed! (I do not suspect my neighbors, they are very nice people even if they are republicans!) This year, however, there is only one sign in our entire neighborhood for McCain/Palin — it is the single most surprising thing to me this whole campaign! The same yard is also sporting the only Coleman for Senate sign. I still am the only Obama sign, but this has to be good news!
Depressingly, this is still solid NOBAMA country here in the Cincy/NKY suburbs (Florence, Hebron, Erlanger, etc.)
But even here it’s local signs I’m seeing, not McSame/Palin. Fair amount of Mitch McConnell and Geoff Davis signage here, but not as much McSame.
However in the last week or so I’ve seen more Obama bumper stickers.
I tell you Zandar, sometimes it gets awful frustrating around here sometimes.
Went to a surprise birthday party last weekend for a friend. My wife and I were the only Obama people there. There were probably 18-20 people. Needless to say, we were looked on as something like a freak show, though good natured, of course. But when everyone started agreeing with each other about how much more qualified Palin was than Obama, I choked on my beer and had it coming out of my nose.
The things we have to put up with living in the middle of this Republican infested Bizarro World around here.
Mike,
I’m in Ohio for a few months (Cleveland) and as I’ve been driving around I’ve seen several places where people vote early. YAY!
PA should do the same thing.
I was also surprised by the Obama signs that I saw out in the Parma and Brooklyn areas.
Yep, both my wife and I have already voted. It will probably be a zoo around here on Nov. 4. We live in a rural area and our polling location typically has had only 2 or 3 voting booths in the past. In 2004 I waited in line for quite a while before I even got inside. And it was raining.
I would expect the greater Cleveland area to have an abundance of Obama paraphernalia. It’s a pretty good Dem stronghold for the most part.
Here in the opposite corner of the state, in conservative old Cincinnati, not so much.
You betcha Palin is more qualified. She has the intellect of a clam and reads real good from a teleprompter. Aren’t those the main qualifications?
where i live in delaware im in between the rich mansions and the projects…..i have not seen one mccain sign…..anywhere….and i took a ride thru media pa the other day…..i lived in the poor people black neighborhood which was one block from the mansions….i didnt see one mccain sign there either…..in any neighborhood…..and all my ladies on my old block are proudly flying their obama signs and flags and stickers….homemade and professional….everywhere….and they all know to be ready next tuesday morning for their ride to the polls. i went to get my nails done and they are flying their obama signs….i have never seen any political sign at the nail salon.
i just got back from widener where i saw obama….im going to die of pneumonia but i had to go….i dragged my girlfriend who is 55 yrs old and has never voted in her life….she already has a sinus infection and some good drugs so i filled her up with coffee and donuts and promised her chocolate if she would go…..this is a person who has never watched the news, never read a political blog, doesnt read the paper….in her past she has been a stripper, a prostitute, and the property of a motorcycle gang member….she has lived quite a life on the edge of society (she has great stories)….and now she is going to vote for the first time. she was in tears listening to obama. yesterday she wasnt even aware when the election was. its pretty cool.
its looking more and more like i will be shipping a cheesesteak to oscar in louisville (i did not forget my promise)
The Obama and McCain campaigns apparently expect undecided to break about 70/30 for McCain. I thought that was too pessimistic for Obama. 55/45 for McCain feels more right to me.
But I don’t see things breaking strongly to Obama on the undecideds. Why do you suspect otherwise?
350 miles cross country yesterday, 2 McCain Palin bumperstickers, 1 yard sign. Obama Biden signs everywhere including the guy in the Honda civic with banner flying on top of car handmade “Obama & Biden are my guys”
The woodcarver set up his big elves in the yard holding an Obama sign; The organic blueberry farm had a pile of pumpkins set up with the Obama sign on top, then the series of the mountain bikers racing over the pass for their last run of the season all with Obama flags out; the Alpaca farm with huge Obama handmade signs.
Enough to make one downright warm and fuzzy.