There are still a few House races that are too close to call, but I am surprised to see that the Republicans will have at least eighteen freshman members in the next Congress. Fifteen of them are replacing Republicans that either retired or lost in the primaries. Two of the remaining three are just the Republicans replacing the seats lost by the disgraced Tom DeLay and Mark Foley in 2006. The only true pickup for the Republicans was against Nancy Boyda in Kansas’ second district. In other words, there isn’t really much ideological shake-up in the GOP’s freshman class. But there could be a considerable cultural shake-up, nonetheless.
This freshman class will represent roughly ten percent of the Republican House caucus. They come in with no mandate, but also no history of failure. They don’t have any commonality of purpose. Some are representing swing districts in New Jersey or Minnesota, others are representing blood-red districts in Tennessee and Utah. They seem as split ideologically as the Republican Party as a whole. Some will blame their recent losses on immoderation on social issues and immigration, others on insufficient fealty to conservative principles. If they share anything, it is probably an agreement that the Republican Party was corrupted by its time in power.
A divided ten-percent bloc is not powerful enough to decisively influence the selection of leadership for the caucus. I don’t see this group throwing John Boehner out as Minority Leader, or being influential in his retention. But they are, collectively, the new blood in the party. Over in the Senate, the GOP will introduce senators Jim Risch of Idaho and Mike Johanns of Nebraska. I don’t see either of them having much immediate impact on the culture of that body.
The Democrats are a different story. With only a few exceptions (Eric Massa, Jared Polis, Chellie Pingree, Alan Grayson) the Democratic freshman class is decidedly moderate. The vast majority of them come from very competitive districts that voted at least once for George W. Bush. At least four of them (a little less than 20%) are anti-choicers. Yet, on the whole, they are a good set of Democrats. The most important thing is that they are very united by the fact that most of them ran on the same themes, and all of them ran against Bushism. They may be shy on some controversial votes but culturally they are confrontational and partisan. Almost all of them ran as unashamed Democrats. They all ran on providing health care and fixing No Child Left Behind. They all ran against our foreign policy and torture.
The Democratic Freshman class is only slightly larger than the Republican Freshman class, but they are probably going to be much more influential within the caucus (despite being a smaller percentage of the overall caucus). If the two freshman classes are going to have anything that they agree and can work together on, it is probably going to be ethics and accountability in government.
What are your thoughts on the next Congress?
