Based on reporting by Haaretz the assault on the Gaza Strip has increased the range of Israeli territory under direct threat of rocket attack:
Home Front Command authorities have instructed Be’er Sheva residents to remain in sheltered areas as Palestinians have succeeded in striking in the deepest point eastward into Israel.
After holding emergency consultations with the Israel Defense Forces Home Front Command, authorities in Be’er Sheva decided on Wednesday there would be no school in the city. The city’s mayor, Rubik Danilovich, also ordered all classes at Ben-Gurion University shut down.
The army has also shut down school instruction on Wednesday in all towns lying within 30 kilometers of the Gaza Strip, though kindergartens in reinforced rooms will be in session.
It seems to me that Israel cannot claim to have accomplished anything positive and worthwhile until they have reduced the threat of rocket attack. Therefore, I can’t see how their decision to murder over 300 Gazans, including dozens of women and children, can be seen as justified in any way at this point. The Israelis will probably feel compelled to take further action in a likely vain hope of reversing this trend of increased threat.
Indeed, Prime Minister Olmert has confirmed this:
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told cabinet ministers, who reached their decision following a presentation by defense officials, that Israel would not conclude its operation until all of its goals had been reached.
“We did not begin the Gaza operation in order to finish it with rocket fire continuing like it did before,” Olmert said.
Of course, the rocket fire is worse than before, which is what I predicted on the first day of the invasion. This makes a ground invasion much more likely.
When Olmert visited IDF Southern Command headquarters in Be’er Sheva Tuesday, most of the senior officers with whom he met urged him to authorize a ground operation. People at the meeting said their impression was that Olmert agreed.
Moreover, even a temporary cease-fire is liable to take some time to arrange, and during this time, ongoing fire and further casualties could spark renewed escalation.
IDF troops have been massed along the Gaza border awaiting a ground operation for two days already, exposing them to rocket and mortar fire. And on Monday, a mortar shell killed a soldier at the Nahal Oz base.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who planned the Gaza operation using much deception, is sending mixed signals.
In discussions with Olmert and [Foreign Minister Tzipi] Livni on Tuesday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak recommended seeking an exit from the fighting within the next few days, using one of the various international initiatives currently being worked on.
Barak also favors the French proposal for a 48-hour truce that would be used to examine Hamas’ willingness to agree to a long-term cease-fire, in addition to its stated purpose of providing humanitarian assistance to Gaza’s population.
Olmert and Livni are said to be less enthusiastic about the French proposal.
I don’t believe the cabinet is really divided or, if they were, that they would let the world know about it. Only strong objections from the Bush administration can cut off the possibility of a land invasion of Gaza, and that seems highly unlikely to be forthcoming. I also believe that Hamas wants the Israelis to invade because they know they will be victorious over the IDF eventually when internal and external pressures force the Israelis to retreat back into Israel-proper. The only questions remaining are if the U.S. will keep the green light on and if the Israelis are dumb enough to step on the gas.
