According to the Times of London, the Israelis are preparing for a ground invasion of Gaza. Their troops are amassed and the air force is tilling the mine-filled open land that the troops will have to traverse in the opening stages of the invasion. It sounds like the real thing, though it could always be called off.
Assuming the Israelis go ahead with their invasion, I expect that they will be stuck in Gaza for the foreseeable future. Their aims will no longer be limited to halting rocket fire. They will want to completely dismantle all vestiges of Hamas power and, presumably, restore Fatah to power in the Strip. I can’t imagine how this can be accomplished, although it might result, eventually, in an end to split government among the Palestinians. But ‘eventually’ can be a very long time and ‘might’ is a very loaded word.
As with all previous spasms of violence, this latest outbreak will only be justifiable if it leads to a sustainable peace agreement that otherwise would be unattainable. I see extremely low prospects for this invasion resulting in a breakthrough in Israel-Palestine relations. As a general matter, war between two peoples is not conducive to better relations between them. Since I cannot envision a likely scenario in which this invasion will ultimately save more lives than it costs (on either side, or in total), I have no choice but to condemn it as a morally unacceptable decision.
As far as I can tell, Hamas wants Israel to invade. And I think Hamas has good reason to welcome an invasion because it will bring a new round of international condemnation down on Israel and will ensnare them in a trap from which they will find it almost impossible to escape. The United States will suffer the consequences almost as keenly as Israel. I could support actions that were designed to provide security for Israel’s citizens if I felt they would work and that they would not harm America’s reputation and security. This invasion fails that test on all counts. I condemn it, and I earnestly hope it is not green-lighted.
Please wait until the Obama-Biden team is sworn in and work with them to find a solution to the security problem.